Here’s my look at the NCS Division V football playoffs:

There are 10 teams still mathematically within contention for a NCS DIvision V playoff berth, but it’s only possible for 9 to become eligible. Seven teams have clinched eligibility, although one of those is a 1-7 Upper Lake team that I consider a longshot. Even if nine teams become eligible, one of those will be Upper Lake, whose best case scenario is probably 2-8 since they have to play Cloverdale still, and I highly doubt the NCS expands its field to 9 to include a 1-9 or 2-8 team.
Here’s the full list of teams clinching eligibility: Anderson Valley, Hoopa Valley, Point Arena, St. Elizabeth, St. Vincent, Tomales, Upper Lake.

I consider six teams to be locks.

ANDERSON VALLEY 3-3, 3-1 NCL-II, 3-1 Div. V; Final two opponents are a combined 1-12 so they should win both and get in
HOOPA VALLEY 7-1, 2-1 HDNL Little 5, 4-0 Div. V; Knocked off St. Bernard’s in OT, damaging the latter’s playoff hopes
POINT ARENA 5-3, 4-2 NCL-II, 5-3 Div. V; Lost to Tomales to lose out on automatic bid, but will still make the field
ST. ELIZABETH 3-5, 1-3 BFL, 2-0 Div. V; Even in nine teams are eligible and they lose to Harker to finish 3-6, they’ll be battling a 1-9 or 2-8 Upper Lake team for that berth and get it easily
ST. VINCENT 5-2, 2-0 NCL-I South, 2-0 Div. V; Defending champs will battle Div. IV Cloverdale in season-finale Nov. 14 for league title and automatic berth
TOMALES 6-2, 6-0 NCL-II, 6-2 Div. V; League champs will host a first-round game

Here is my one probable team:
LAYTONVILLE 3-3, 2-3 NCL-II, 3-3 Div. V; Needs to win one of their final two to clinch eligibility and likely earn a spot. Huge game this week with South FOrk (Calpreps projects a 28-17 SF win), but a final week win over 0-7 Potter Valley (already beat 21-13 this year) makes them eligible. I would label them a lock but since they haven’t clinched eligibility yet, I can’t. But they will beat Potter Valley and get in.

And here are my two teams on the bubble and luckily this will be settled on the field since they close the year against each other.

ST. BERNARD 3-5, 0-2 HDNL Little 5, 3-4 Div. V; It’s simple, a win Nov. 14 against South Fork and they are eligible and will make the field, since South Fork would then be inelgible. They beat South Fork 33-0 in nonleague action earlier this year, so they will be favored in that game. If they get in, it’ll be interested to see how they are seeded since they beat Tomales
SOUTH FORK 3-5, 0-3 HDNL Little 5, 2-3 Div. V; They have to beat Laytonville on Friday and St. Bernard on Nov. 14 to become eligible, at which point they would make the field because St. Bernard would then be ineligible.

Here’s my one longshot

Upper Lake 1-7, 0-2 NCL-I South, 1-1 Div. V; They are eligible with that Div. V record, but they should lose this week to Cloverdale and be underdogs against St. Helena and so a 1-9 finish is likely. However, their hope lies in South Fork losing to Laytonville (and thus making South Fork ineligible) and then getting South Fork to play spoilers against St. Bernard to knock St. Bernard out of eligibility. That would leave Upper Lake as one of only eight eligible teams. The question is: does a coach with a 1-9 or 2-8 record submit an application for an at-large berth, especially since it already lost 55-0 to St. Vincent? We’ll see.

So there you go. It’s fairly simple as everything should be decided on the field.

Here’s my projected field, listed alphabetically: Anderson Valley, Hoopa Valley, Laytonville, Point Arena, St. Bernard, St. Elizabeth, St. Vincent, Tomales.

And my blind stab at seedings:

1. St. Vincent
2. Hoopa Valley
3. Tomales
4. Point Arena
5. Anderson Valley
6. St. Elizabeth
7. Laytonville
8. St. Bernard

In this division, this truly is just a blind stab at the seedings. The only team I’ve seen in St. Elizabeth and that was in perhaps the ugliest football game I’ve ever seed (0-0 tie with Fremont, later forfeited by Fremont).