Since we’ve been breaking down all the North Coast Section playoff scenarios, it’s time to also talk about the Oakland Athletic League playoff scenarios. And boy, are they pretty crazy. For example, Fremont goes into its game with Castlemont on Saturday having a chance to win and potentially earn the top seed, or lose and potentially miss the playoffs.

Let me run through each team alphabetically, first noting that Castlemont, McClymonds and Oakland Tech have all clinched spots in the playoffs.

Castlemont (4-4, 3-1 OAL) — The Knights will be back in the playoffs and could be seeded anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4 as they look to get to their third straight Silver Bowl. For Castlemont to earn the top seed, it needs to beat Fremont on Saturday and root for McClymonds to beat Oakland Tech. If the Knights win and Tech wins to also finish 4-1, they would take the No. 2 seed. A loss to Fremont, combined with an Oakland Tech win, would give the Knights the No. 3 seed. A Castlemont loss and a Tech loss would create a four-way tie for first that would end up with Fremont as the top seed and a coin flip determining seeds 2-4.

Fremont (2-6, 2-2 OAL) — Definitely the biggest variety of scenarios for Fremont, which as I said can earn the top seed or miss the playoffs completely. For the Tigers to earn that top seed, they need to beat Castlemont on Saturday and have Mack beat Oakland Tech. That would create a four-way tie for first (yes, four teams would all earn a share of the regular season title) with each team finishing 3-2. Because Fremont would then have a 3-0 record against the teams its tied with, it would take the top seed. If Fremont loses and McClymonds beats Oakland Tech, the Tigers would miss the playoffs completely and the winner of the Oakland-Skyline game would earn the fourth seed because the winner of that game would be tied for fourth with Fremont at 2-3 and would’ve beaten the Tigers (Fremont lost to both Oakland and Skyline already). If Fremont were to lose and Mack were to lose to Tech, there would be a three-way tie for third at 2-3 between Fremont, Mack and the Oakland-Skyline winner. We’d start off by comparing those three teams results against the next team above them, Castlemont. All three lost. So then we’d go to their result against the next team up, Oakland Tech. Since Fremont is the lone team to beat Tech, Fremont would earn the No. 3 seed. (Mack would then take the fourth seed over either Oakland or Skyline due to its head-to-head win).

McClymonds (5-4, 2-2 OAL) — The Warriors are already in the playoffs, thanks to owning wins over Skyline and Oakland. If they beat Tech on Saturday, they’d earn a four-way share of the regular season title if Fremont also beat Castlemont. In that scenario, Fremont is the top seed and Mack joins Tech and Castlemont in a coin flip to determine the Nos. 2-4 seeds. If Mack beats Tech and Castlemont beats Fremont, Mack ties for second place with Tech and earns the No. 2 seed. If Mack loses and Fremont beats Castlemont, Mack would tie for fourth with the Oakland-Skyline winner and take the No. 4 seed thanks to a head-to-head win over either of those teams. Finally, if Mack and Fremont both lose, the Warriors would be involved in a three-way tie for third that would end up with Fremont taking the No. 3 seed and Mack earning the No. 4 seed.

Oakland (3-5-1, 1-3 OAL) — The win last week over Fremont gives the Wildcats hope, albeit slim hope. The only way Oakland can make the playoffs is to beat Skyline and have BOTH of the following occur: McClymonds beats Oakland Tech and Castlemont beats Fremont. That would put Oakland in a tie for fourth with Fremont and the head-to-head win would carry the Wildcats into the playoffs. ANY OTHER SCENARIO would have Oakland missing the playoffs.

Oakland Tech (7-2, 3-1 OAL) — The Bulldogs are in the easiest position because if they win they take the top seed in the playoffs without relying on anything else. If they lose and Castlemont wins, they would tie for second with McClymonds and take the third seed behind the Warriors due to the head-to-head loss it would’ve suffered. Finally, if Tech loses and Fremont beats Castlemont, the Bulldogs would fall into a four-way tie for the regular season title and join Mack and Castlemont in a coin flip to determine the 2-4 seeds (with Fremont grabbing the top seed).

Skyline (2-7, 1-3 OAL) — I can literally copy and paste what I wrote for Oakland. The Titans need to beat the Wildcats and then have Mack beat Tech and Castlemont beat Fremont. Then Skyline’s win over Fremont in the OAL opener would carry the Titans into the playoffs.

As you can see, there are a lot of possible scenarios heading into the final week of OAL play, which seems to happen just about every year. Last year, Castlemont, Fremont and Oakland all tied for first and had to use a coin toss to determine the top seed and we’ll see how things shake down this year.

The OAL is so unpredictable right now that I won’t try to predict what happens, but allow me to present a cleaned up version of what would happen under the four different scenarios from the Mack-Tech and Fremont-Castlemont games (the Oakland-Skyline game only becomes relevant under one scenario, so I’m not going to present those variables).

Scenario 1: Oakland Tech beats McClymonds; Castlemont beats Fremont
No. 1 seed: Oakland Tech (4-1)
No. 2 seed: Castlemont (4-1)
No. 3 seed: Fremont (2-3)
No. 4 seed: McClymonds (2-3)

Scenario 2: McClymonds beats Oakland Tech; Castlemont beats Fremont
No. 1 seed: Castlemont (4-1)
No. 2 seed: McClymonds (3-2)
No. 3 seed: Oakland Tech (3-2)
No. 4 seed: Winner of Oakland-Skyline game

Scenario 3: Oakland Tech beats McClymonds; Fremont beats Castlemont
No. 1 seed: Oakland Tech (4-1)
No. 2 seed: Fremont (3-2)
No. 3 seed: Castlemont (3-2)
No. 4 seed: McClymonds (2-3)

Scenario 4: McClymonds beats Oakland Tech; Fremont beats Castlemont
No. 1 seed: Fremont (3-2)
No. 2-4 seeds to be determined by coin flip between Castlemont (3-2), McClymonds (3-2) and Oakland Tech (3-2).

I hope that helps everybody get ready for this weekend. If you see something that I’m not accounting for or missing, please point it out. I must admit that this all can get quite confusing sometimes when I’m trying to figure it all out, but I think I have it correct here.