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NCS Division III playoff projections

Here’s my breakdown of NCS Division III. We’ll see how close I come when the seedings are announced tomorrow.

The following are the eligible teams I consider locks:

ACALANES 5-5, 4-2 DFAL
ALHAMBRA 9-1, 6-0 DFAL
ANALY 6-4, 2-4 SCL
CAMPOLINDO 5-5, 3-3 DFAL
EL CERRITO 7-3, 5-1 ACCAL
ENCINAL 9-1, 7-0 BSAL
FORTUNA 7-3, 4-2 HDNL-Big 4
HEALDSBURG 6-4, 3-2 SCL
MARIN CATHOLIC 9-1, 7-0 MCAL
NOVATO 7-3, 6-1 MCAL
PIEDMONT 6-4, 4-3 BSAL
TAMALPAIS 7-2, 4-2 MCAL

I consider these three to be probable:
KENNEDY – FREMONT 4-6, 2-4 MVAL, 2-1 Div. III — Play mostly Div. I competition and nearly beat Logan last night
MIRAMONTE 4-6, 2-4 DFAL, 3-2 Div. III — Have a win over a Campo team that is in
BISHOP O’DOWD 3-5-1, 3-3 HAAL, 0 games against Div. III — Exclusively played games from higher divisions and still qualified.

And finally my bubble teams:

MOREAU CATHOLIC 4-6, 3-4 BSAL, 2-2 Div. III
TERRA LINDA 4-6, 2-4 MCAL, 4-3 Div. III
SONOMA VALLEY 4-6, 2-4 SCL, 3-2 Div. III
DEL NORTE 3-6, 2-4 HDNL-Big 4, 2-2 Div. III

My first task is to eliminate Del Norte with its 3-6 record.

MOREAU CATHOLIC 4-6, 3-4 BSAL, 2-2 Div. III
TERRA LINDA 4-6, 2-4 MCAL, 4-3 Div. III
SONOMA VALLEY 4-6, 2-4 SCL, 3-2 Div. III
DEL NORTE 3-6, 2-4 HDNL-Big 4, 2-2 Div. III

Then I eliminate Sonoma Valley because of its head to head loss to Terra Linda.

MOREAU CATHOLIC 4-6, 3-4 BSAL, 2-2 Div. III
TERRA LINDA 4-6, 2-4 MCAL, 4-3 Div. III
SONOMA VALLEY 4-6, 2-4 SCL, 3-2 Div. III

Finally, I judge between Moreau and Terra Linda. Terra Linda has a win over a playoff eligible team in Sonoma Valley, which is something Moreau cannot say. However, Terra Linda hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record, just like Moreau has not. The difference is all of Moreau’s losses came to teams with winning records, including the likely No. 1 seed in this bracket and the likely Nos. 2 and 6 seeds in Division IV. Moreau played a much tougher schedule than Terra Linda, which has bad losses to 2-win teams in Redwood and San Marin. That, I think, is what gets Moreau the final berth.

Here’s my crack at seedings:

1. Encinal
2. Marin Catholic
3. Alhambra
4. Novato
5. El Cerrito
6. Tamalpais
7. Piedmont
8. Healdsburg
9. Fortuna
10. Acalanes
11. Campolindo
12. Analy
13. Bishop O’Dowd
14. Miramonte
15. Kennedy-Fremont
16. Moreau Catholic

Jimmy Durkin

Jimmy Durkin is a sports writer for the Bay Area News Group.