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State Bowl picture

We’re a couple weeks away, so here’s attempt No. 1 at breaking down the State Bowl picture

OPEN

North
If Grant wins out, it will represent NorCal in the Open Division Bowl game for the second-straight year. However, if it were to falter in either the San Joaquin Section semis or final, it’s not as clear. De La Salle would be the favorite (assuming it wins out) and Bellarmine (assuming it wins out) would be considered as well. The darkhorse is Rocklin. If Rocklin beats Grant and then Del Oro/Folsom in the final it would have a strong case. It would be undefeated with wins over Grant, Folsom/Del Oro, Del Oro (reg. season), Nevada Union and Granite Bay. That’s as impressive a resume as there is in NorCal. However, I still think DLS would still get the Open spot, Bellarmine would go at D-I and Rocklin at D-II.

South
There is three candidates for the Open spot in the South. Oaks Christian, Crenshaw and whoever wins the Southern Section Pac-5 playoffs (Edison, Mission Viejo, Servite … Lakewood is left too, but it lost to Crenshaw). This has to be the year for Oaks: No. 5 in the nation USA Today, No. 1 California CalHisports.com. Calpreps.com’s formula doesn’t have them as high as Edison, but the same formula doesn’t have Grant No. 1 in the north so it doesn’t matter. Serra-Garden is the only team left in the Southern Section Northwest playoffs that has a shot against Oaks.

Grant-Sacramento vs Oaks Christian-Westlake Village

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DIVISION I

North
(Assuming Grant is at the Open)
It’s De La Salle’s to lose. Bellarmine may technically be 10-1-1, but it lost to Mitty in overtime of that “tie.” Mitty didn’t make it out of the first round of the CCS open playoffs. One of De La Salle’s losses was an overtime loss to Lakeland — No. 23 team in the nation by USA Today. So they both have essentially gone 10-2 thus far. Bellarmine got blasted by St. Mary’s which didn’t even make the semis of its own section playoffs. DLS got blasted by Don Bosco, but Bosco is undefeated and ranked No. 2 in the nation by USA Today. The common opponent is Serra (DLS by 7, Bells by 2 (game 1) and 10 (game 2)).

Other possibilities:

  • Folsom goes if it wins SJS D2, DLS moves to Open, Bellarmine loses.
  • Nevada Union goes if Monte Vista wins NCS D1, Grant wins SJS D2, Bellarmine loses.
  • Monte Vista goes if it wins NCS D1, Grant wins SJS D2, Bellarmine loses, Nevada Union loses.

SOUTH
(Assuming Oaks Christian in the Open)
Edison-Huntington Beach is the top ranked D-I team in the South on CalHisports.com and No. 1 in the nation on Calpreps. Vista Murrieta, Oceanside and La Costa Canyon are the other projected qualifiers, but the reality is if Mission Viejo or Edison win the Pac-5 playoffs one of those schools will go. Lakewood has a good chance as well, but because they have a loss, it’s not as clear cut.

Projection: De La Salle-Concord vs Edison-Huntington Beach.

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DIVISION II

North
(Assuming Grant in the Open)
This is where we start to find out how flawed the State Bowl game rules are. Rocklin, Del Oro, St. Francis and Mitty are four of the best five D2 teams in the North. It’s likely none of them will qualify because they are in a playoff bracket with bigger schools (Grant, Bellarmine). Why should Rocklin have to get through Grant to represent NorCal in the Division II game when Grant is DI? It shouldn’t. But until the CIF adopts my PROPOSAL the system will be flawed.
If Inderkum wins out, it’s a lock. If Inderkum loses, then Petaluma, Encinal, Sierra, Enterprise, Oakdale will all be in the mix to get blown out by the South team.

South
(Assuming Oaks Christian in the Open)
Crenshaw-Los Angeles is probably in if it wins out. If Servite gets through the Pac-5, it has a chance, as does Westlake.
Projection: Inderkum-Sacramento vs Crenshaw-Los Angeles

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DIVISION III

North
Once again, St. Mary’s-Stockton should be here. It is clearly the best D-III team in NorCal, but since it was in a section bracket with D-I and D-II teams it was up against a stacked deck. Instead, we’ll probably be stuck with Central Catholic … its only loss? A 22-point loss to, yes, St. Mary’s. Marin Catholic is in the mix, but it’s in the same bracket with D-II Encinal.

South
(Assuming Oaks Christian in the Open)
With OC in the open, St. Bonaventure is a safe bet to feast on the NorCal team. If Serra-Garden beats OC, it’s probably in the D-III and one of the bigger schools moves into the Open.

Projection: Central Catholic-Modesto vs St. Bonaventure-Ventura

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SMALL SCHOOLS

North
(Assuming Central Catholic in D-III)
If Modesto Christian beats Central Catholic, it ends up here. If it doesn’t, then there is a severe drop off. Portola is undefeated, but as highlighted on calhisports.com http://myespn.go.com/blogs/calhisports/0-13-2/Week-13-CIF-Bowl-Rankings.html They’d potentially be playing after a 3-week break. Brashaw Christian or Capital Christian would probably be better picks, but it would be hard to pass up the only undefeated team.

South
Francis Parker has beaten St. Margaret’s and Santa Fe Christian, so if it wins out, it’s in. Then it gets to blowout Portola or whoever the CIF committee sacrifices from the North.

Projection: Portola vs Fracis Parker-San Diego.

Kyle Bonagura

Kyle Bonagura is a Pleasanton-based prep sports writer for the Bay Area Newsgroup-East Bay.

  • Footballfan415

    its funny watching grown act like children on this blog……..I cant wait for MC and Encinal, its going to be a great game wish both teams good luck…..gurantee its going to be a hard fought hard hitting game..the way quality high school football should be

  • guru-black

    reposa will you tell bleacher coach the jets are for real! yomama blanton was whining about encinal being in the bsal so i don’t believe he would schedule those teams.

  • http://ibabuzz.com PERKIN

    Every fan at St.Pats vs Encinal in 08 cried on their way out of the parking lot that they had to play Encinal & got really embarrased. Veer SHut down Blanton got shut up it was really embarrassing for Vallejo on their blogs they wanted him fired which I agree I think he likes playing weak teams he can get wins over. Don’t want to compete with Encinal a now proven power. Got embarrassed again this year bad. Not even competitive.

    I don’t think that you people realize how good of a job Tenorio is doing. They have lost the BSAL defense player of the year Washington(also starting RB) & Matt Meno another 2 way starter. Starting defensive tackle Peterson who were all starters last year. They have moved this kid Okamora to RB who has played WR all year. Trotter hasn’t played in the play-offs (& it shows) til Miramonte. They are still rolling.

    Yes DLS won NCS in its 4th. Tenorio won it his 3rd against a wider range of teams. Everybody wants him to schedule up & out of area but how long it take DLS to do that? 75 straight wins 8 or 9 NCS championships. They played the local teams for a long time & didn’t schedule out unitl they had loaded teams. They played at the same dividion as Encinal in the 80′s.TENORIO KEEP PLAYING YOUR LEAGUE & LOCAL SCHOOLS & ENJOY IT AS LONG AS LADOCEUR DID. YOU HAVE ANOTHER 10 YEARS TO GO. Dummy probably won’t listen.

  • Triton8

    That’s the point I have been trying to make….I think people are underestimating the players that Encinal has on its bench injured. Ask Novato how good Washington is? He ran all over them in the first half last year and put the smack down on them from his LB position. I saw him put a hit on the El Cerrito QB last year that made the poor kid look like Ricky Hatton after Manny P. hit him… I didn’t even know much about Meno and Trotter….pretty damn good coaching job with a very limited roster.

    And don’t even try to say anything about recruiting and mention St Pats and DLS in the same paragraph! Check into the Jets kids you will find they live on the island.

    Coach Tenorio is trying to elevate his program by scheduling powers…and that deserves props…..when I was in High School we played Oceana when they were good, El Cerrito when they were NCS Champs and more….now the Coach is trying to step outside of the East Bay to push his team…that is awesome. You don’t get anywhere in life without taking risks. He took a risk in scheduling Serra….they lost, but it put everybody on notice that he won’t be scared to schedule anybody! If he wins that game….maybe he is in position to go to Bleacher Coach’s coveted: STATE BOWL? I am SUPER proud of the way The Jets are representing the community as well as all former players….football is finally catching up to Baseball in terms of recent success and everyone is enjoying being along for the ride!!!!

  • old former meddling coach.

    This to The Alhambra Bulldogs, You guys had a great season and i’m sorry it ended like it did. I’m looking forward to Alhambra making it back to the playoffs next year. I really was looking forward to you playing in the big game against my Jets. Jet Pride!

  • choopers

    alhambra hell of a team, but you know what gets me mad, is that novato is still ranked ahead of alahambra in calpreps?? are you serious? how messed up is this whole ranking system

  • renegades10

    It is true that it takes awhile for a team to start getting more of the high-profile matchups. DLS had to win consistently before it started getting the national teams calling. DLS did start going outside of section only a few years after Lad tookover as he started playing Bellarmine and some other schools. That being said I believe the idea of these out of section and out of state matchups are much more common now then they were back in the 70′s when Lad first had the DLS program. The main challenge Encinal faces in getting some of these DI programs in NCS is that those DI teams would have nothing to really gain from it even by winning. That is why Encinal going out of section makes sense. They win NCS again this year and some more teams will take notice. I think it is possible for the Jets to get an out of section team other then Serra for next year, that is as long as their schedule isn’t filled yet. But to really be considered for a bowl game they need to petition up to the D2 playoffs, I don’t think there is a way for them to continue to play DIII and be selected. I would like to see Encinal make a bowl game, I have nothing against them, but just post what I see and that is right now their schedule won’t get them there. So yes it might take some time to get the bigger teams calling, but the first step is very possible by petitioning up. That could happen for next year.

  • http://www.ibabuzz.com/prepcorner/2009/11/15/official-ncs-division-iii-bracket/ Bleacher Coach

    renegades10 there are some very good SJS Div I teams looking games next year ie Nevada Union, Vintage napa and Lincoln to name a few and Mitty and Palo Alto are looking for games as well.

    That would be a great preseason Nevada Union, Serra ,and Mitty replace Richmind mid season for the Island bowl and make it the home comming game . If the the Jets won with hat schedule and didnt get picked I would be the first person to cry foul but I would say they would end up 8 or 9 and 3 and have no shot.

    The Jets where much better last year they are good this year and will be back to average next season

  • Triton8

    Bleacher Coach…you finally were starting to make some unbiased sense…and then you went back to the old familiar Encinal hating way. First of all, I don’t think replacing the Island Bowl is an option that Coach Tenorio has. Secondly, there you go again saying they would finish 8-3. I’m sure you were one of the guys saying …and don’t lie about this, because there were a lot of you….that The Jets were going to lose to Serra in week #2 by 30. They still lost, but I think that game showed them that they were a top flight team. And what makes you think that they were so much better last year? Maybe you really wanted to say that the whole NCS was really down last year and the Jets coincidentally picked a lucky year to go undefeated? But that might not have given Novato their just due? Well, they weren’t perfect this year but I think they are more battle tested because of the ass whipping they put on your beloved Hornets and the tough loss to Serra. They don’t have Brown, but they are deeper and have a better line than last year.

  • Triton8

    ….and “back to average next season”???? I guess that would put them at about 8-4…..right about the same as Novato this year. And your right, Novato was an average team this year. A team that was embarrassed by a 6-7 team. With the direction the Jet program is going, I don’t think average is in the near future.

  • spartan510

    Guru-black who are you?