In my mind, it’s never too early to talk about the playoff situation. The North Coast Section seeding meeting is just five weeks away, so for many teams that’s about 10-12 matches, give or take one or two.
As many of you readers know, from the past, as the playoffs get closer I will start to breakdown the playoff teams in terms of locks, should be in and on the bubble.
For this early look, however, we’re going to talk about the favorites (teams expected to get in at this point) and the hopefuls (teams who appear to have a chance to get in).
Let’s break it down…
Division I
Favorites: Berkeley, California, Clayton Valley, De La Salle, Deer Valley, Mt. Eden, Monte Vista, Newark Memorial, San Ramon Valley.
Hopefuls: Amador Valley, Foothill, Heritage, Logan, Liberty, Livermore, Mission San Jose, Pittsburg, Richmond, Washington.
By my count that is 19 teams for 16 spots, as of right now. Just to clarify, I am considering anyone that is four games over .500 as a favorite, and anything under that, within two or three games of .500, is a hopeful. Hence Livermore being on the hopeful list, even though I am almost certain this team will get in. They are too good, and will probably be a very high seed.
The surprise team on the favorites list is Mt. Eden. I have them at 8-2-3 and maxpreps has them at 8-3-3 (I was told the CP match was a scrimmage), so either way they are in good shape. Every team on the favorites list should be in the playoffs. It would take a very poor month or so from those teams not to get in.
Now for the hopefuls. The team in the most trouble is Amador, despite being a team that can beat anyone (i.e. Newark). However, at 5-8-1 and playing in the toughest league, it’s not looking good right now. Foothill is in the same boat at 4-6-2. The Falcons are going to need some league wins.
Heritage and Liberty need to play pretty well in league to have a chance, while fellow BVAL member Pittsburg is in pretty decent shape at 4-3-2. I think the Pirates are a very good team, and should be NCS bound.
Logan is in good shape, and I would be surprised not to see Richmond make it, even sitting just a game above .500. Mission San Jose and Washington, both sitting exactly .500, will have to outdo one another in the MVAL.
Division II
Favorites: Acalanes, Bishop O’Dowd, Campolindo, Concord, Dublin, Hayward, Piedmont, San Lorenzo, St. Mary’s, Ygnacio Valley.
Hopefuls: Albany, Alhambra, Dougherty Valley, Kennedy-Richmond, Las Lomas, Pinole Valley.
Same thing applies here, where the favorites are at least four games over .500. The Pinole Valley situation is just like Livermore. They are also 7-4-2, but they are in great shape and could get a very high seed.
As of right now, I have 16 teams, meaning that if a bubble team or two doesn’t make it, the top seed or top two seeds could end up with a bye.
The most surprising team on the favorites list is Hayward. After starting the year 0-1-3, the Farmers have won six straight and sit in great shape. Concord is going to have its hands full with two matches against Clayton, and one more each with College Park and Ygnacio Valley, so the Minutemen will be tested.
As for the rest of the hopefuls, they all sit at two games above .500 and are in decent shape. Three of them are DFAL teams and could play a part in knocking each other out of the picture. Kennedy is exactly .500 right now, so they are a bubble team in the truest sense.
Rankings
Onto the rankings. I’m going to take a lot of heat this week, I can feel it. But the rankings needed some big changes. I will talk about almost every team and why they are where they are.
So I couldn’t move an undefeated Cal team down for one tie. I didn’t see a legitimate argument for a new No. 1 team. Some might argue Newark Memorial shouldn’t be No. 2, but a win over SRV was good and they opened league with a win. I didn’t feel like another team deserved to be No. 2 over them.
Now De La Salle deserved a bump. They deserved it last week, but I waited to see how they did with Livermore. The Spartans have won seven of eight, including two straight in the EBAL and earned the six-spot jump.
I was pretty easy on Campo and San Lorenzo, dropping them just two spots each after SLZ’s tough loss to Hayward and Campo’s two ties, games in which the Cougars led late. I think those two teams will have plenty of opportunity to crack the top three again. A lot of parody in the East Bay this year.
Livermore, anyone? The team is legit and deserved a bump despite the loss to DLS. The win over SRV was enough for me. Clayton may feel snubbed, and I might hear it from them, but they are next in line for a jump if they keep the ship steering in the right direction.
As for Acalanes, I will never doubt them again and last week is proof why I don’t do predictions. Two good wins for the Dons, who jump four spots.
The other team that could have a huge beef is Berkeley, and for good reason. They dropped six spots for one loss. But the thing was, if I only dropped them three or four, then Clayton, or Deer Valley get bumped down a spot. So Berkeley will just have to work its way back up the list, and they have a chance at a good win at home with Richmond on Tuesday. I will be there.
I think the rest of the rankings are pretty self explanatory. Teams moving down for losses, standing pat for maintaining with Pinole and Hayward jumping in for very good reason.
The last team I want to address is YV. They keep winning, but I can’t find a way to move them up just yet. They were supposed to play Pitt this weekend, but it didn’t work out. That would have helped. But they play Clayton on Thursday, which is a big chance for them.
1. California (11-0-1)
2. Newark Memorial (11-3-0)
3. De La Salle (9-3-0)
4. Campolindo (11-0-3)
5. San Lorenzo (9-1-1)
6. Livermore (7-4-2)
7. Clayton Valley (7-1-3)
8. Deer Valley (6-2-3)
9. Acalanes (7-2-2)
10. Berkeley (6-2-2)
11. Monte Vista (7-2-2)
12. San Ramon Valley (8-4-1)
13. Bishop O’Dowd (8-2-2)
14. Pinole Valley (7-4-2)
15. Hayward (6-1-3)
Others considered: Richmond (5-4-1), Dublin (8-4-2), Las Lomas (6-4-2), Pittsburg (4-3-2), Ygnacio Valley (6-1-0), Dougherty Valley (6-4-3), Logan (6-4-2), Concord (5-1-1), St. Mary’s (5-1-0), Albany (4-2-2).
Standings
ACCAL
Team Overall League Points
Pinole Valley (7-4-2) 3-0-0 9
Alameda (2-8-2) 1-1-1 4
Richmond (5-4-1) 1-1-1 4
Berkeley (6-2-2) 1-1-0 3
Hercules (1-6-0) 1-2-0 3
El Cerrito (0-5-4) 0-0-2 2
De Anza (2-8-0) 0-2-0 0
BSAL
Team Overall League Points
Piedmont (6-2-3) 6-1-1 19
St. Mary’s (5-1-0) 5-1-0 15
Kennedy (6-6-0) 4-2-0 12
Encinal (2-4-1) 2-2-1 7
St. Joseph Notre Dame (2-4-3) 2-2-1 7
Albany (4-2-2) 2-1-0 6
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (1-4-0) 1-4-0 3
Salesian (0-2-2) 0-2-1 1
Swett (0-8-0) 0-6-0
BVAL
Team Overall League Points
Antioch (0-7-3) 0-0-0 0
Deer Valley (6-2-3) 0-0-0 0
Freedom (2-6-1) 0-0-0 0
Heritage (2-4-3) 0-0-0 0
Liberty (3-4-0) 0-0-0 0
Pittsburg (4-3-2) 0-0-0 0
DFAL
Team Overall League Points
Campolindo (11-0-3) 4-0-2 14
Acalanes (7-2-2) 3-1-1 10
Alhambra (7-5-2) 2-2-1 7
Dublin (8-4-2) 2-3-0 6
Dougherty Valley (6-4-3) 1-2-2 5
Las Lomas (6-4-2) 1-2-2 5
Miramonte (1-6-3) 0-3-2 2
DVAL
Team Overall League Points
Clayton Valley (7-1-3) 3-0-0 9
Concord (5-1-1) 2-1-1 7
Ygnacio Valley (6-1-0) 2-1-0 6
Berean Christian (2-9-2) 1-2-1 4
College Park (2-7-4) 1-1-1 4
Northgate (1-8-3) 1-1-1 4
Mt. Diablo (2-4-0) 0-4-0 0
EBAL
Team Overall League Points
California (11-0-1) 3-0-1 10
Monte Vista (7-2-2) 3-0-1 10
San Ramon Valley (8-4-1) 3-1-0 9
De La Salle (9-3-0) 2-2-0 6
Livermore (7-4-2) 2-2-0 6
Granada (1-8-5) 1-2-1 4
Foothill (4-6-2) 0-3-1 1
Amador Valley (5-8-1) 0-4-0 0
HAAL
Team Overall League Points
Hayward (6-1-3) 5-1-0 15
San Lorenzo (9-1-1) 5-1-0 15
Bishop O’Dowd (8-2-2) 4-1-1 13
Mt. Eden (8-2-3) 4-1-1 13
Castro Valley (2-7-2) 2-2-1 7
San Leandro (2-8-1) 2-3-1 7
Tennyson (3-7-2) 1-5-0 3
Arroyo (2-8-3) 0-3-3 3
Moreau Catholic (1-6-1) 0-5-0 0
MVAL
Team Overall League Points
Logan (6-4-2) 1-0-0 3
Newark Memorial (11-3-0) 1-0-0 3
Kennedy (1-3-3) 0-0-1 1
Washington (3-3-4) 0-0-1 1
Irvington (1-6-3) 0-1-0 0
Mission San Jose (5-5-2) 0-1-0 0
OAL
Team Overall League Points
Castlemont (0-0-0) 0-0-0 0
Fremont (0-0-0) 0-0-0 0
Oakland (0-0-0) 0-0-0 0
Oakland Tech (1-1-1) 0-0-0 0
Skyline (0-0-0) 0-0-0 0
Statistics
Name, School Goals
Pagliuca, Cal 13
Aguila, Richmond 10
Parisi, Dougherty 10
Villa, Pitt 10
Ulloa, Logan 10
Navarro, Newark 9
Fagenson, Cal 8
Reshke, Campo 8
Hartland, Dublin 8
Ramirez, Newark 7
Tobin, DLS 7
Morales, Liv 7
Name, School Assists
Vazquez, Pitt 7
Hodges, LL 7
Oranstil, BOD 6
Shaiwany, Dougherty 6
Fagenson, Cal 5
Danielson, Cal 5
Tavecchio, Campo 5
Gomzez, Clayton 5
Ramirez, Newark 5
Bochenek, Dougherty 5
Chaussy, SRV 5