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NCS/OAL playoff breakdowns

By Jimmy Durkin
Monday, November 7th, 2011 at 6:00 pm in East Bay Football.

I’ve gone through each division and broken down what the playoff picture looks like entering the final week. It should be fun to see how it shakes out on the field and on Sunday.

Division I
Qualifiers: De La Salle, James Logan, San Ramon Valley, California, Freedom, Pittsburg, Monte Vista, Berkeley, San Leandro, Antioch, Castro Valley, Irvington, Heritage.

Bubble: Amador Valley, Deer Valley.

The Skinny: This division is pretty cut and dried. There are 13 teams that have qualified. Most of those are pretty obvious. Castro Valley is in there with a 4-2 HAAL record. The Trojans will be busy this week, playing Hayward on Thursday and then resuming its suspended game with Newark Memorial on Saturday. Regardless of those outcomes, the Trojans are qualified. Irvington is also qualified based on a 1-1 record against Division I teams. Essentially, the Vikings win over Mission San Jose makes them eligible. Heritage is eligible because it is 4-3 (and can finish no worse than 4-4) against Div. I teams. The Patriots beat Independence-San Jose, and based on enrollment size, that qualifies as a D-I win for Heritage and so they are eligible.

The two bubble teams both need a win this week to get in. Amador Valley has a tough game with a determined Foothill squad that would love nothing more than to spoil the season for its cross-town rival. Deer Valley plays Heritage and needs a victory to get in.

However it works out, De La Salle can plan to sit at home for the first week. At best, 15 teams will qualify. At worst, it’ll stay at 13 and three teams would get byes.

Division II

Qualifiers: Windsor, Las Lomas, Concord, Rancho Cotate, Casa Grande, College Park, Dublin, Maria Carrillo, Montgomery, Clayton Valley, Newark Memorial, Dougherty Valley, American, Washington, Arroyo, Pinole Valley, Redwood, Hayward, Alameda.

Bubble: Ukiah, Northgate, Mt. Eden.

The Skinny: There are already 19 teams in this division that have qualified. Dougherty Valley is a qualifier because Oakland counts as a D-II win to make them 2-1 in the division. Redwood qualifies because it beat Mt. Diablo and that makes it 1-0 in the division. Alameda went 2-2 in the division to be a qualifier, although with its season over at 3-7 and just owning wins over De Anza, San Lorenzo and Richmond, I’d say the Hornets are a long shot.

The three bubble teams could be qualifiers after this week. Ukiah needs to beat Piner and Northgate needs to beat Concord. Mt. Eden would qualify with a 2-2 division record if it beat San Lorenzo, but the Monarchs aren’t going to stack up so I would throw them out. Northgate is also going to have a very tough time with a Concord team that will probably be pretty inspired after last week’s loss.

To be honest, picking the 16 teams to get in is going to be pretty tough. I’m going to assume Ukiah, which has a very good win over Casa Grande, beats Piner this week to qualify. I’ll also assume Northgate loses. That puts us at 20 teams in the pool to consider. Which four get left out?

I can’t say I’m too impressed with Redwood’s resume, with only the Mt. D win making them eligible. I think Alameda also gets left out. Hayward could very well lose to Catro Valley and finish 3-7 (with only wins over Mt. D, Mt. Eden, and San Lorenzo). I think without a win over CV, the Farmers are probably out. Washington will probably lose to Logan and finish 3-7. Not a great record, but they do own a win over Newark so that’ll make things interesting. Montgomery is also 3-7 and Dougherty Valley could be 3-7 if it loses to Dublin. If we end up choosing between those three teams, it’ll be a tough call. We’ll see on Sunday.

Division III

Qualfiers: Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman, Encinal, Campolindo, Miramonte, Novato, Eureka, Bishop O’Dowd, El Cerrito, Analy, Tamalpais, Del Norte, Tennyson, San Marin, Sir Francis Drake, Hercules.

Bubble: Acalanes, Sonoma Valley, Kennedy-Richmond, Ygnacio Valley.

The Skinny: We already have 16 teams qualified, so no first-round byes this year. Four more teams could become qualifiers. That’s Acalanes, which needs to beat Las Lomas this week. Sonoma Valley needs to beat Analy. Kennedy-Richmond needs to beat Piedmont and Ygnacio Valley needs to beat Clayton Valley. Of those teams, I would say if Acalanes get the win, it would probably get in, possibly squeezing out a team like Hercules. I think Hercules needs to beat Pinole Valley this week to fully secure themselves the spot. They really don’t have a win to hang their hat on this year.

There won’t be any teams with losing overall records in this division, which again speaks to the depth that we’ve talked about all year. That means that even if Kennedy-Richmond wins to get eligible, it remains a longshot. That’s especially true for YV, 3-7 just isn’t going to cut it. My gut tells me that the 16 teams that are currently qualified are probably going to be your 16 teams that make it. I think Acalanes is your wild card, because a win over Las Lomas would make them worthy. But I think Las Lomas will win that game.

Division IV

Qualifiers: Salesian, Fortuna, Healdsburg, Ferndale, St. Helena, Justin-Siena, Berean Christian, Valley Christian, Moreau Catholic, St. Mary’s, Willits, Arcata, Middletown, Clear Lake.

Bubble: Piedmont, Fort Bragg.

The Skinny: There are 14 teams that have qualified and each of those teams will make it. Piedmont can qualify if it beats Kennedy-Richmond this week. Fort Bragg could qualify with a win over Cloverdale. So pretty simple. We’ve got a max of 16 teams to qualify so whoever qualifies will get in. Salesian, the obvious No. 1 seed, could get a first-round bye if either Piedmont or Fort Bragg lose this week.

Division V

Qualifiers: Hoopa Valley, St. Bernard’s, Upper Lake, Tomales, California School for the Deaf, Emery.

Bubble: St. Vincent.

The Skinny: Six teams are qualified for the eight-team bracket. St. Vincent can be the seventh if it beats Tomales, not an easy task. And the last name on that list of qualifiers is not a misprint. Emery, with a 1-8 record that will likely fall to 1-9, is playoff eligible. Never mind that the Spartans have been outscored by an average margin of 45.3 points or the fact that their win against St. Elizabeth was their first varsity win since 2002. If Emery applies, it’s headed to the playoffs. That’s because Emery has played just two games against Div. V opponents this year. It lost to CSD and beat St. Elizabeth, so it’s 1-1 in the division and that makes it eligible.

Oakland Section

Qualified: McClymonds, Fremont, Skyline, Oakland Tech

Bubble: None

The Skinny: The four berths are decided. McClymonds is the No. 1 seed. Fremont, with wins over both Skyline and Tech, is the No. 2 seed. Skyline and Tech are both 2-2 in the OAL and Castlemont sits behind at 1-3 (and plays Fremont this week). Even if there was a three-way tie at 2-3, Skyline and Tech would be in. In that scenario, Skyline is 2-0 against the other two teams it would be tied with. That puts the Titans in. Then Oakland Tech has the head-to-head win over Castlemont. That puts the Bulldogs in. The only thing in question this week is who gets the No. 3 seed. Skyline has the edge in most scenarios to get the No. 3 seed since it has the head to head win. The only way Tech can get the No. 3 is if Tech beats first-place McClymonds and Skyline loses to winless Oakland on Saturday.

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65 Responses to “NCS/OAL playoff breakdowns”

  1. hsfootball Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 6:04 pm

    thanks for the explanation.

  2. Prep Fan Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 6:11 pm

    Nice breakdowns. Thanks Jimmy.

  3. norcalfball Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 7:13 pm

    how are we determining Riordan to be D2? cal preps shows them at a 1140 enrollment. Is this not the correct enrollment size? If this is their enrollment without doubling because it is an all boys school..Then it would take them to 2280 which means it was a d1 win. otherwise good breakdown.

    But i think you got to throw arroyo in that bottom 3 group to make it a bottom 4. Even with 4 wins the lack of a quality win and blow out losses i think would give all 3 of the other teams the nod over arroyo. got to reward teams that play a tougher schedule…although a dougherty valley team that if loses means they went 0 for in league…to me that is tough to send any team to the playoffs that can’t win a league game. So could very easily see them getting left out too…i think montgomery and washington get in on strength of schedule..and both own a quality win. dougherty’s best win is northgate but it is looking like they wont even qualify so that gives them the worst win of the 3 win teams as well..so in my order i say if that plays out..montgomery is in 1st, washington 2nd, arroyo and dougherty is a toss up..but i think 0 league wins has to be a big factor..i mean there league is solid, but it is still primarily a d3 league.

    on a side not d3 is loaded when hercules with that gaudy record is on the bubble..granted they didnt play anyone but still crazy…but hey guys if you are going to bump them without a quality win to hang your hat on, how about arroyo (without a tennyson win this week, hawyard is best win)

  4. Jimmy Durkin Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 7:45 pm

    I doubled back and it’s the Oakland win, NOT the Riordan win, that Dougherty Valley can count as a D-2 win. That gets their D-2 record up to 2-1. So yes, DV is eligible. Probably still a longshot if they can’t beat Dublin this week.

  5. Prep Fan Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 9:33 pm

    Norcalfball, while I agree with you that both Washington and Montgomery should get in on strength of schedule, I fail to see the quality wins that you say both own. Washington’s best win is 4-3-1 Newark while Montgomery’s best win is 4-5 Ukiah. I’m not sure how you define a “quality win”, but I would classify both of those as just wins.

  6. FB Guru Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 9:34 pm

    Jimmy,

    Is your listing order of teams a prediction of the seeding?

  7. Jimmy Durkin Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 10:18 pm

    No, they are not listed in any particular order.

  8. brandonbeard Says:
    November 7th, 2011 at 11:12 pm

    That division 5 outlook is too funny! D5 is like the NFC west of last year, go to playoffs with a 1-9 record, amazing!! Who would really be upset with that?

  9. norcalfball Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 7:02 am

    well quality win for D2…both those teams are securely in the playoffs (if ukiah wins of course)…talking about east bay as a whole no. but newark did tie el cerrito and beat american (2 other playoff teams respectively)

    here is each teams wins, one looks to be left out at this point..should arroyo, dougherty, and washington all lose final game..if any wins there game they have a good chance of getting in.

    washington – newark, mission, kennedy
    montgomery – ukiah, piner, santa rosa
    dougherty valley – riordan, oakland, northgate
    arroyo – hayward, mt eden, san lorenzo, castelmont

    my point was i was comparing the bottom teams in the d2…and newark and ukiah trump dougherty’s northgate (non qualifier w out major upset of concord) and hayward win by arroyo…neither of the 4 teams has great wins…but at least washington and montgomery have a decent playoff team win.

    here is arroyo’s scores vs their losses…14-150 (that is pretty bad)..dougherty’s a bit better but 0 league wins should they lose to dublin can’t possibly get them in (or that might be history, has a 0 league win team ever made the playoffs?) washington and montgomery did play the best of the best on their road to an unfullfilling 3 win season so far…but at least they tested themselves…just as the EBAL always gets rewarded for strength of schedule come playoff time (rightfully deserved) i think the same thing applies here.

  10. panther4 Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 7:05 am

    There are some really bad teams in division 1. I hope noone gets hurt. Irvington only played 2 D1 teams and gets in?? Somethings wrong with the system. Thanks for the breakdown though.

  11. NCS Expert Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 7:44 am

    Here’s my breakdown of the NCS D-3 Rankings
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    #1 Cardinal Newman (North Bay Champ)
    Overall: 9-0-1
    D1 rec: 3-0 D2 rec: None
    D3 rec: 4-0 Below D3: 2-0-1
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D2-Rancho Cotate(6-3),D1-Valley Christian(5-4),
    D4-Tied Palma(8-0-1),& D2-Concord(6-3).

    Comments: Undefeated, wins over section championship caliber programs & a tough schedule could very well be the #1 seed.

    #2 Marin Catholic (Marin County Champ)
    Overall: 9-0
    D1 rec: 3-0 D2 rec: 0-0
    D3 rec: 4-0 Below D3: 2-0
    Significant wins over:
    DI-Vacaville(9-1), D-I-Berkeley(6-3), D-III-Novato(7-2)

    Comments: Undefeated,Tough schedule,outstanding team. MC defeated Vacaville. Vacaville defeated Granite Bay.
    3-0 vs. DI teams.

    #3 Campolindo (Diablo-Foothill Champ)
    Overall: 10-0
    D1 rec: None D2 rec: 3-0
    D3 rec: 5-0 Below D3: 2-0
    Significant wins over:
    Beat Las Lomas 31-22, beat El Cerrito 16-13, beat Miramonte 42-6.

    Comments: Undefeated, but schedule slightly below top 2 here. 3-0 vs. upper division.

    #4 Miramonte (Diablo-Foothill,2nd)
    Overall: 9-1
    D1 rec: 1-0 D2 rec: 3-0
    D3 rec: 4-1 Below D3: 1-0
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D2-(7-2)Las Lomas 33-28, Beat D3-Analy, Beat D2 Dublin.

    Comments: Good win over Las Lomas,but strength of schedule below the top 3. 4-0 vs. upper division.

    #5 Bishop O’Dowd(HAAL,1st)
    Overall: 7-2
    D1 rec: 2-2 D2 rec: 4-0
    D3 rec: 1-0 Below D3: none
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D3(7-2)Tennyson 42-19, Beat DI-(4-4),Castro Valley 36-17

    Comments: Early losses to St. Ignatius and 3-7 Enoch are major blemishes on record. A win over SL could move them up. A loss will drop them behind Encinal.
    6-2 vs upper divison.

    #6 Novato (Marin County,2nd)
    Overall: 7-2
    D1 rec: 0-1 D2 rec: 1-0
    D3 rec: 5-1 Below D3: 1-0
    Significant wins over:
    Beat Eureka 28-7, Beat Drake 52-21, Beat San Marin 34-7

    Comments: Played 7 games @ D3 or below. Bishop O’dowd has played a played a tougher schedule. 3 wins over D3 playoff teams. 1-1 vs. upper division.

    #7 Eureka (Hum-Del norte Big 5,Tied 1st)
    Overall: 7-2
    D1 rec: 1-0 D2 rec: 2-1
    D3 rec: 2-1 Below D3: 2-1
    Significant wins over:
    Beat Del Norte 35-12, Beat DI(6-4)Shasta 18-13

    Comments:
    Eureka lost to Novato 28-7,but a loss to Fortuna drops them behind Encinal. 3-1 vs. upper division.

    #8 Encinal (BSAL Champ)
    Overall: 8-1
    D1 rec: 0-1 D2 rec: 1-0
    D3 rec: 2-0 Below D3: 4-0
    Significant wins:
    NONE.

    Comments:
    Encinal only badge of kudos is a loss to Serra 34-28 in OT, but then they had a close win vs. (3-7)Alameda 45-41. A weak schedule & no significant win. 1-1 vs. upper division.

    #9 El Cerrito (ACCAL,2nd)
    Overall: 7-1-1
    D1 rec: 0-0 D2 rec: 4-0-1
    D3 rec: 3-1 Below D3: 0-0
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D2 Pinole Valley(5-4) 42-7, beat D3 Hercules(7-2) 14-0

    Comments:
    EC played well vs. Miramonte,lost 16-13, Tied D2-(5-4)Newark 14-14,a win vs. Berkeley locks up home field.
    A loss & they drop behind Eureka. 4-0-1 vs. upper division.

    #10 Tennyson(HAAL,3rd)
    Overall: 7-2
    D1 rec: 1-1 D2 rec: 4-0
    D3 rec: 1-1 Below D3: 1-0
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D-I San Leandro 31-21

    Comment: Tennyson’s win over San Leandro is impressive. SL defeated DI-Berkeley 34-14. Berkeley beat Bay Valley champion D1-Pitt. 5-1 vs. upper division teams.

    #11 Analy (Sonoma County,4th)
    Overall: 5-4
    D1 rec: 1-0 D2 rec: 0-1
    D3 rec: 2-1 Below D3: 2-1
    Significant win over:
    Beat San Marin 22-3

    Comments:
    Analy lost by only 1 point to (9-1)Miramonte 36-35. Overall record hurts them. A loss to (4-5)Sonoma Valley a team that lost to 1-9 Santa rosa could drop them to a #14 seed. 1-1 vs. upper divison.

    #12 Del Norte (Hum-Del Norte Big 5,3rd)
    Overall: 6-3
    D1 rec: None D2 rec: None
    D3 rec: 0-1 Below D3: 6-2
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D4-(8-1)Ferndale

    Comments:
    Del Norte’s schedule will cripple them. DN did not play any D1 or D2 teams. Lost to the only D3 team they played. They played 8 games vs. teams D4 or lower. No upper division games.

    #13 Tamalpais(Marin County,3rd)
    Overall: 7-3
    D1 rec: NONE D2 rec: 2-1
    D3 rec: 4-1 Below D3:1-1
    Significant wins over:
    Beat the weaker D3 qualifiers (6-3)Drake 42-7 &
    5-4)D3-San Marin 13-6 in OT. No wins over teams above D3. 2-1 vs. upper division.

    Comments:
    Tamalpais’ 21-7 loss to a 7th place, Bay Shore League team,(2-7)St.Patrick/St.Vincent, hurts them and the rest of the Marin County teams.

    #14 Drake(Marin County,4th)
    Overall: 6-3
    D1 rec: none D2 rec: 1-0
    D3 rec: 2-2 Below D3: 3-1
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D4 Justin-Siena 24-7. No significant wins in D1,D2 or D3.

    Comments:
    Lost to D4 (4-6) El Molino 21-20, Lost to Tamalpais 42-7, Drake plays San Marin so they could swap spots.
    only played 1 upper division game.

    #15 San Marin(Marin County,6th)
    Overall: 5-4
    D1 rec: None D2 rec: 1-0
    D3 rec: 2-4 Below D3: 2-0
    Significant wins over:
    Beat D3-(4-5) Acalanes 13-10. no significant wins in D1 or D2.

    Comments:
    All San Marin’s wins come against teams with losing records (0-9)San Rafael, (2-7)Terra Linda, (3-6) Redwood & a AAA city team in (3-6)Lincoln(S.F.). Win over Drake could move them up a spot but JFK(Richmond) is better. Played only 1 upper division game.

    #16 Hercules(ACCAL,Tied 3rd)
    Overall: 7-2
    D1 rec: 1-1 D2 rec: 1-1
    D3 rec: 2-1 Below D3: 4-0
    Significant wins:
    NONE,unless they beat Berkeley.

    Comments:
    Hercules’ 7 wins come from opponents with a combined 9 wins & 49 loss’ record (1-6) AAA-Burton-S.F., (2-7)DI-Mission San Jose, (1-8)D5-Emery, (1-6)Allen, (0-9)D2-Richmond, (3-7)Alameda,& a 22-21 win over(1-6)D3-De Anza, the soft schedule may cost them the 16th spot.
    2-2 vs. upper division.

    On the Bubble:
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Sonoma Valley (Last place, Sonoma County)
    Overall: 4-5
    D1: 1-0 D2: 0-2
    D3: 2-2 Below D3: 1-1
    Significant wins: None
    Comments:
    Sonoma Valley is in last place in their league & they lost to (1-9)Petaluma 17-7, but they could qualify with a significant win over Analy.

    JFK-Richmond (4th, BSAL)
    Overall: 4-5
    D1: None D2: 1-0(Richmond)
    D3: 1-2 D3 & below: 2-3
    Significant wins: NONE
    Comments: Strength of schedule is helpful,but big deficit losses to Encinal 55-22, Miramonte 42-22,& Salesian 42-5. A win over (3-6)D4-Piedmont qualifies them but no significant wins might end it, but they could sneak in over Hercules if NCS panel likes their 5-5 record over Hercules’ 7-3 record.

    Acalanes (Diablo-Foothill,5th)
    Overall: 4-5
    D1: None D2: 1-1
    D3: 2-3 Below D3: 1-1
    Significant wins: None
    Comments: Needs a win over Las Lomas to have a chance. Las Lomas will not let that happen.

    D3 1st round games
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    #16 Hercules @ #1 Cardinal Newman
    #15 San Marin @ #2 Marin Catholic
    #14 Drake @ #3 Campolindo
    #13 Tamalpais @ #4 Miramonte
    #12 Del Norte @ #5 Bishop O’Dowd
    #11 Analy @ #6 Novato
    #10 Tennyson @ #7 Eureka
    #9 El Cerrito @ #8 Encinal

  12. Same ol' Williams Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 8:20 am

    NCS EXPERT, you almost have some valid reasons but your forgetting that scores are not even a criteria. Your giving teams like Eureka and Novato and Miramonte props but it’s like who are they. With the exception to Miramonte but you value Miramonte’s blow out loss to Campolindo like Campo is unstoppable. I respect Campo’s record but a loss to campo is not like or equivalent to losing to De La. BOD has 2 loses, and what’s terrible is one of the loses is from a 3-7 team. NCS EXPERT if you gonna do it, do it right. Didn’t Miramonte schedule Kennedy for 4 games. OMG. I hope Kennedy does get in so they could surprise upset or beat up a high seed.

  13. PERKIN Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 8:38 am

    #1MC #2Campo #3CN #4EHS #5BOD #6 Novato #7 Miramonte #8EC assuming loss to B-High if not then Eureka is a #8 (I see Eureka losing Week 10)

    I guess Encinal has everybody really fooled. # 8 in the entire Bay Area # 4 in the East Bay. Jets you’re looking at an 8th seed but 2nd round will be back to MC not CN they won’t get it. A match that should of happened against EC 1st that should be a good one. IF the Jets are an 8 seed then these rankings by these newspapers are the phoniest ever. Lets see if they prove them right of wrong.

    You want to put scores into the quations & close games this is how I see it:

    Novato’s ass kicking against Eureka & Eureka’s other loss will keep them out of the top 8 even if they beat Fortuna. BOD really has no impressive wins even if they beat SL which I think they will. Beating SL this year isn’t saying much. I have them as a 5. The loss to St. Ign really hurts they aren’t that good. Enochs don’t help. Novato’s getting destroyed by the #1 will keep them out of the top 5 but their wins put them ahead of Miramonte who I see as a 7 seed. Playing a season against essentially one good team(Campo) & one better then average team (LL)does not impress. The bottom line is out of those 2 teams if you had to play with a running clock then you aren’t a good team. 42-0 is 42-0 since all the Miramonte supporters love bringing up scores against common opponents. I see them playing a desperate Alhambra which I think they should beat but wouldn’t be surprised if they lose on Alhambra’s senior night & definite last game of the year if they lose. Encinal played a very close game against rival school Alameda & won. So did Cardinal Newman against Montgomery. I don’t see that bringing them down in anybodies mind mine included. They should be 9-0-1 but played OT. They haven’t gotten a chance to prove themselves but they didn’t last year either & got a 4 with a pretty bad loss to Serra who is much better this year. The Serra OT proves more then any win on this board. Period. Encinal 4 if a caoch has it any other way its to avoid playing them like I read yesterday.

  14. MiraMan Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 8:52 am

    NCS Epert,

    One correction, O’Dowd lost to St. Ignatius and Franklin. They beat Enochs in a close one. Franklin is a much better team and no disgrace in the loss.

    In terms of rankings, we all have our own opinions. I would say that Marin Catholic is #1 and Cardinal Newman is #2. The Vacaville will is a better win than any win CN has. Also, MC has 5 wins against strong teams to 3 for CN and a tie.

    Also, while I can’t fault your analysis, Encinal will be higher than #8. I think they will be #4 or #5 and everyone else will slide down.

  15. BleacherCoach Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 9:11 am

    NCS expert I think you did a great job on the break down.

    Alot rides on this weekends games I think Eureka vs Fortuna, EC vs Berkeley and BOD vs SL are all coin flip games a turnover or a special teams play.

  16. armstrongJets Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 9:29 am

    Let the D3 playoff begin!!

    I’m not going to waste anymore energy defending the Jets against all the ranking and google searches of why Campo and Mira should be ranked higher!!

    Let’s the Jets play on the field speak for them..and it has – no matter what their seed or where they play.

    Let Campo, Mira get the higher seed and one extra game and then we hope you get to play the Jets in the second round.

    The Jets play for championships not seeding.

    Jet Pride!!!

  17. Mr. Han Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 9:42 am

    1) CN (defending champs and well deserved).
    2) Campo (10-0)
    3) MC (great season)
    4) EHS(OT loss to Serra would be a 2 seed in NCS D1)
    5) BOD (win league or significant drop to 8).
    6) EC (may flip with Novato if lose to B High).
    7) Novato(respectable loss to M.C. but St I too).
    8) Eureka (lost to Novato).
    9) Miramonte (played L.L and Campo[blow out] and lost).
    10)Tennyson (beat S.L.).
    11)Analy
    12)San Marin
    13)Del Norte (not good)
    14)Tamaplais
    15)Kennedy (will upset a top seed)
    16)Hercules (sneaks in)

  18. Mr. Han Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 9:43 am

    1) CN (defending champs and well deserved).
    2) Campo (10-0)
    3) MC (great season)
    4) EHS(OT loss to Serra would be a 2 seed in NCS D1)
    5) BOD (win league or significant drop to 8).
    6) EC (may flip with Novato if lose to B High).
    7) Novato(respectable loss to M.C. but St I too).
    8) Eureka (lost to Novato).
    9) Miramonte (played L.L and Campo[blow out] and lost).
    10)Tennyson (beat S.L.).
    11)Analy
    12)San Marin
    13)Del Norte (not good)
    14)Tamaplais
    15)Kennedy (will upset a top seed)
    16)Hercules (sneaks in)

  19. BleacherCoach Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 10:16 am

    Does anyone know for sure if the BOD vs SL game is Thursday ? If so where and when I.

  20. EBfootball Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 10:30 am

    Nice copy and paste job from CalPreps NCS expert. Your editorials are rationalizations of their rankings BASED COMPLETELY ON SCORES. If scores/points matter were the only criteria in NCS would have not implemented a mandatory running clock rule. Only talented kids would play (no scrub time) and losers would be humiliated.

  21. FB Guru Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 10:30 am

    If the DIV-III NCS committee is lazy, they will just go with the calpreps computer rankings.

    However, if greed sets in, then they will position the seedings so that probable second round match-ups include MC-Novato, Encinal-BOD, Campo-Mira, CN-Eureka. Campo-Mira over thanksgiving weekend with all the alums back in town would generate a $50k gate alone for NCS.

  22. Patrick Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 10:40 am

    Perkin, I’m not sure that when you said that a Serra loss by Encinal was better than any other win you were aware that Marin Catholic beat Vacaville who beat Granite Bay and Valley Christian and Cardinal Newman tied Palma (a better team than Serra) and beat Valley Christian that is tied with Serra for second in the WCAL and play them this week. Also, the degree of Campolindos win against Miramonte is also bigger than a loss to Serra. Anyways, I’d say that a loss being a loss, it is about the sixth or seventh biggest accomplishment in NCS D3 this year. But as to seeding, I think Encinal sits nicely at 5 after Cardinal Newman, Marin Catholic, Campolindo, and Miramonte.

  23. armstrongJets Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 10:57 am

    Patrick,

    Just for clarification. according to the people that do this for a living, Miramonte is not even ranked in the Chronicle Top 25 (Jets – 8th) and ranked 10th in the East Bay (Jets – 4th). Ahead of both Campo and Miramonte.

    Jet Pride!!!

  24. Patrick Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 11:15 am

    Fair enough. I’ll retract that and say Jets at 4. And also just for clarification, as a Newman fan, I have all the respect in the world for the Jets, playing us hard for four quarters last year with a tiny roster bursting at the seams with talent. I just think that when you’re biggest accomplishment still goes down as a loss, it’s going to hurt you a bit, regardless of how good that loss was.

  25. Dudleydawson Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 11:23 am

    1)marin 2)cardinal newman 3)campo 4)encinal 5)miramonte 6)odowd 7)el cerrito8)novato

  26. Jimmy Durkin Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 11:25 am

    Bleacher Coach,
    Yes, BOD vs. San Leandro is Thursday. It’s at 7 p.m. at Chabot College. Make sure you bring $2 for parking and go to one of the parking kiosks to buy a daily permit.

  27. S1lverngreen Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 12:33 pm

    Pitt Grunt,
    Without going into details, did i hear correctly that the Pirates lost some or a key player for the rest of the season?

  28. Dragon Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 1:05 pm

    I think SL just got one of their studs back from a broken collerbone

  29. DaveCal Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 1:45 pm

    Did NCS announce the venue for the championship games? Is it the Coliseum or Dublin High?

  30. Ben Enos Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 2:53 pm

    DaveCal, it’s the Coliseum this year. D-I and either D-II or D-III. The other game depends on the participants.

  31. pirate football Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 2:57 pm

    dragon
    yeah mcbirde took the opening kick off vs arroyo for his first game back, that kid is blazing fast

    hey jimmy
    do you think if vc dublin doesnt petition up 1st do u think they would win div 5 and also have a great chance to go to the small school bowl game, just wondering what u think, what game will you b covering thur

  32. Pitt Grunt Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 3:27 pm

    @ S1lverngreen,

    As far as I know, there was a key player suspended against Heritage and another two who were suspended this past week against Liberty. Parents in the stands were all saying “Hey, where is XXXXXX.” One parent, whose kid plays on D, said they were one game suspensions. This was on top of five starters who did not play due to injuries. But regarding the one you most likely are NOT making reference to, he was one of them. Let’s just say, old habits never die.

    But that was as of Friday night.

  33. S1lverngreen Says:
    November 8th, 2011 at 3:43 pm

    That’s too bad, i hate hearing stuff like that…Good luck in the playoffs Pitt. I have feeling we may end up playing your boys. Here is to a injury free remainder of the season!

  34. NCS Expert Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 6:54 am

    I made a mistake Bishop O’Dowd beat Enoch 41-40. They lost to 3-5-1 St. Ignatius and to a good Modesto team.

    I don’t understand ol williams’ claim that Miramonte played Kennedy 4 times. Miramonte 42-22 win over Kennedy-Richmond to open the season was the only game.

    The Kennedy has talent line has been heard. But the bottom line is they need to win games. 4-5 with losses to lower division (D4 Moreau & D4 St.Mary’s) are not gonna help them. A win over another D4 school (3-6)Piedmont is not going to prove it either. Although I would take Kennedy over the Drake, San Marin, & other weak Marin schools.

  35. Same ol' Williams Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 7:51 am

    they scheduled a home and home. 4 was a typo

  36. Same ol' Williams Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 7:51 am

    kennedy has a good loss against Encinal

  37. MiraMan Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 8:57 am

    NCS Expert,

    I agree with your comments about Kennedy-Richmond. When Miramonte played Kennedy early in the season I was sure they would jel into a pretty good team and win 6 or 7 games. In terms of raw talent, they probably have the best receiver corps in NCS. Add to that about 5 300 pounders and a couple of 230-240 TE/DE guys and you have a freakin semi-pro team! In terms of talent, they deserve to the in the playoffs. However, in terms of accomplishments, they just didn’t get it done against smaller schools like Moreau and St. Mary’s.

  38. Pawn Star Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 9:06 am

    NCS Expert – I agree. I think Kennedy is better than their record. I have seen Moreau, Kennedy, St. Mary’s, Tam, and Marin Catholic. Although Moreau and St. Mary’s are D4 schools they are better than Tam which is rated #11-D3 MaxPreps. Tam lost to SPSV, yet Tam has held there own in the MCAL.

  39. BleacherCoach Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 9:38 am

    Can someone please explain to me the term “Good Loss” a loss is a loss there is nothing good about a loss.

    And how does a 33 point loss have any upside? The score was 55-22.

  40. panther4 Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 10:36 am

    Any team that has to use the arguement of a “good loss” in an effort to get into the playoffs doesn’t belong in the playoffs. It’s about wins and wins only.

  41. EBfootball Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 11:18 am

    @bleacher coach
    Last year for example, CN got the 2 seed with 3 losses to Palma, VC, and Rancho. Those losses were better than Miramonte’s wins against nobodies and Miramonte got the 3 going 9-1. Yada yada yada… it wasn’t even close (i was there). The committee rewards teams that competes with good programs. Even with losses, therefore “good loss”.

  42. In the Know Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 11:19 am

    Champion in Div II Rancho Cotati
    Champion in Div III Cardinal Newman

    NBL will have 2 section champions this year. Windsor is a good team but doesn’t have the coaching to win it all.

  43. Prep Fan Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 11:41 am

    While I think there could be such a thing as a good loss, depending on the circumstances, the vast majority are just losses. I think EBfootball has a point in that to the extent that the NCS committee uses CalPreps in their seedings, a loss to a good team can weigh in better than a win against a bad team. I previously pointed out that CalPreps lowered the rating for Cal after they beat Castro Valley 47-0 in last years’ playoffs. I would not be surprised at all if Cal were to lose to DLS this week and see their rating actually go up. That may be one of the flaws in CalPreps, and to the extent the committee weighs it in, it could affect NCS seeding. I like CalPreps as a point of reference, but it does put an awful lot of weight on strength of schedule.

  44. Matt Rempel Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    I will be covering the continuation of Castro Valley/Newark Memorial and will post the score Saturday night.

  45. New2this Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 12:36 pm

    Word on the streets is that Heritage Coaches are saying they will not go into playoffs if they lose to DV this week

  46. MiraMan Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 12:42 pm

    I don’t know what to think about a coach that chooses not to accept a playoff bid. On one hand it’s kind of honorable if he doesn’t think they deserve to be there. But it robs the players of one last game against what would be a top tier program and a chance, however slight, to upset a top program. I don’t think I could say no to a playoff bid. To say no is to quit and say there is no hope.

  47. Prep Fan Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 12:49 pm

    It might be a way of firing up his team this week, so they aren’t complacent in the knowledge that they are already locked into the playoffs, and will give DV everythng they have. The problem with that is if they do lose and he then decides to accept a playoff bid, he loses credibility. You don’t want to paint yourself into a corner like that.

    Maybe he said something to the kids along the lines of “If we lose this week, we don’t deserve to go to the playoffs”, and that got translated to the word on the street that they won’t go if they lose?

  48. norcalfball Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 2:08 pm

    are there any other games being finished this week from the suspended games earlier this year?

    or is newark and castro valley it?

    to me there doesn’t seem much reasoning to play this one out…castro valley cant go any higher than they are with a win…and newark probably can’t either…both only get hurt with a loss, or more so with an injury.

  49. falconfb Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 4:52 pm

    @ miraman – i think making the playoffs should be an honor no matter what. for a coach not to give the players a chance to compete is not fair to the players. specially seniors who are on the way out. some of these players will never play football again after this year. to rob them of that opportunity is a selfish act from a coach. it also shows upcoming underclassmen what kind of coaching team a school has. no matter how bad a team is, these coaches jobs are to coach and not quit on these kids. maybe a coach needs to be reminded that all these are for the kids. isn’t that what the coaches say in the beginning of a season? win or lose you have to at least try.

  50. djgaucho Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 5:03 pm

    Ok Bhigh vs Ec tomorrow night, Predictions?….Nobody seems to be giving Ec a chancein hell. Is berkeley really that good?

  51. Warrior Jacket Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 5:48 pm

    Djgaucho I think EC has a chance because of their team speed. However if BHS establishes a grind out running game, it will be a long day in Gaucho land. I can’t wait to see the game tomorrow.

  52. Djgaucho Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 6:37 pm

    Thanks warrior jacket just wondering haven’t found one person who thinks ec has a chance and most think it will be a blowout for bhigh…..but I too am planning to go to this game was just wondering was the gap that wide between the 2 teams

  53. falconfb Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 8:14 pm

    i seen berkeley play, and if they get their run game going. el cerrito will have a hard time stopping them.

  54. MiraMan Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 8:45 pm

    Regarding EC vs Berkeley, I think EC has a chance. I just think with Berkeley being D1 ranked somewhere #8-10 in the NCS bracket and EC being a similar ranked team in D3, Berkeley should be able to handle EC. Add to it that Berkeley does have the victory over a strong Pittsburg team while EC doesn’t have a real marque victory. I think EC will put up a fight, but Berkeley will beat them if Berkeley is any good.

  55. pirate football Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 9:33 pm

    @warrior jacket
    so are u saying that ec is far superior in team speed than b high, are you saying b high is slow and have no team speedif any of these kids ran track last spring, i didnt see anything that impressive over b high and pv, in fact a pv kid won the 100 meter dash at the league meet, just dont believe that they are that fast and that good when u lose to caampo who doesnt have great team speed and tie newark, not drinking the kool aid, the last 2 seasons b hgih crushed both jv and var, dont see how the gap has closed so quickly, i will admit i havent seen ec this year, lots of people saying oh they have atheletes but they always do, guess we shall see tomorrow. i think whoever wins the trenches will win. miraman i agree with u, b hgih have the win over pitt and played a much better non league

  56. Warrior Jacket Says:
    November 9th, 2011 at 10:48 pm

    What does the participation on the track team have to do with the football teams at BHS and EC. Both teams have fast kids but I think overall team speed is EC’s strength. BHS should win but don’t be surprised if EC upsets them.

  57. pirate football Says:
    November 10th, 2011 at 12:45 am

    warrior jacket
    you talked about the team speed of ec, where do u get speed from running track

  58. Warrior Jacket Says:
    November 10th, 2011 at 8:23 am

    Not every fast kid on a fottball team runs track. Cmon man, you know that!

  59. Warrior Jacket Says:
    November 10th, 2011 at 8:46 am

    The BHS vs EC game is tonight. The ACCAL Championship is on the line. Its senior night at EC. We will find out if Kahn can prove he can handle coaching in a big game with something on the line. The drama is there, I hope the game is as good as the build up. I’m picking BHS to win, but I wouldn’t bet on it a rivalry like this is hard to put money on. Pirate Footbal, there is a chance you might have to taste the kool-aid.

  60. ManDown Says:
    November 10th, 2011 at 8:59 am

    EC fans, Is it true that a couple of key players didn’t make grades to play? Maybe discipline issues? Past two games a few players didnt suit up whats that about?

  61. Pitt Grunt Says:
    November 10th, 2011 at 9:32 am

    @S1lverngreen,

    Agree on the hope foe an injury free end of the season. All roads ultimately lead to DLS. If Pitt can play o their potential and avoid the “shoot yourself in the foot” approach then it is possible. Pitt seems to be most vulnerable against teams they should beat and play well against teams are picked to lose (such as Freedom & Monte Vista). Team is 98% healthy and suspensions have been lifted. Pitt needs to be careful tomorrow night against Antioch but some trash talking by the Antioch staff at the Little Big Game luncheon may have insured an angry Pitt team. One good thing working for Pitt is that Mailk Watson has really been throwing the ball well the past 2 weeks. He is making some good decisions and is playing with alot of confidence.

    Should he an interesting playoffs.

  62. Hsfootball Says:
    November 11th, 2011 at 12:56 am

    D1 Playoffs are about to get interesting with srv, dv, san leandro, and amador losing. Let’s see what else shakes out with the other games. I don’t see dls or Logan losing. Pitt should also win. It looks like there will only be 13 teams in the playoff with the dv and amador losses.

  63. HS Football Fan Says:
    November 11th, 2011 at 9:37 am

    Yep, only 13 qualified teams in D-1. It’s pretty obvious DLS and Logan will get the top 2 seeds and byes, but who’s #3? Monte Vista beat SRV, SRV beat Cal, Cal beat Monte Vista. Pitt beat Freedom but lost to a 4-6 Deer Valley team that’s not even eligible for the playoffs. No matter what they do, there are going to be some unhappy teams in D-1 on Sunday.

    In D-III, Acalanes, Kennedy (Richmond) and Ygnacio Valley all failed to qualify, and in D-IV Piedmont did qualify, so both of those brackets should be full and it doesn’t look like anybody will get left out, either. The only division that will have a surplus of qualified teams is in D-II, and the teams left out will all probably be 3-7 teams.

  64. hs school football Says:
    November 11th, 2011 at 10:03 am

    Hey BVAL expert any word on freedoms QB ? I heard he got hurt last nite. Can’t be good with the playoffs starting next week.

  65. falconfb Says:
    November 11th, 2011 at 10:16 am

    pitt also beat monte vista, but lost to berkeley. cal lost to granada, who lost to heritage, and is not eligible. it’s gonna be interesting…

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