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Updated NCS football playoff outlook — Divisions III and IV

By Stephanie Hammon
Thursday, November 1st, 2012 at 2:05 pm in East Bay Football.

Here’s a look at the NCS playoff picture in Division III and IV.

Division III

Qualifiers (18): Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman, Campolindo, El Cerrito, Acalanes, Eureka, Novato, Tamalpais, Terra Linda, Analy, Petaluma, Sonoma Valley, Hercules, Bishop O’Dowd, Encinal, Tennyson, Miramonte, Kennedy-Fremont

Needs one more win (2): Alhambra, Piner

The breakdown: Miramonte won its third straight to clinch its playoff eligibility and should receive a pretty decent seed if it wins again Friday against Alhambra. But that Alhambra team will be fighting for its own playoff eligibility. Kennedy-Fremont is officially eligible after beating American and Ygnacio Valley is out after losing last week. Piner is stands a good shot to become eligible (it must beat winless Elsie Allen this week) but that doesn’t guarantee them a spot in the playoffs.

Projected field: 1. El Cerrito, 2. Marin Catholic, 3. Campolindo, 4. Cardinal Newman, 5. Analy, 6. Miramonte, 7. Novato, 8. Acalanes, 9. Bishop O’Dowd, 10. Tennyson, 11. Encinal,  12. Hercules, 13. Tamalpais, 14. Terra Linda, 15. Sonoma Valley, 16. Petaluma

It’s between Marin Catholic and El Cerrito for the top seed. EC (most likely) will be undefeated, so I think they’ll have the edge over MC, even though MC has a higher rated strength of schedule. EC also has a higher power rating on Calpreps and Maxpreps, though is ranked below MC by Cal-Hi Sports’ bowl rankings. It’s also a toss up between Campo and Cardinal Newman for No. 3, though undefeated Analy could be in the mix. There will be at least 18 qualifiers, so who will be left out? I think Piner, even if they win an qualify, could have a hard time making it. Alhambra would have to beat Miramonte to get in, so its chances of making the field are much better than Piner’s. I think Kennedy-Fremont might be out, too. The loser of Petaluma/Sonoma Valley could also be out. Terra Linda and Eureka are on shaky ground, too. Hercules might not get a great seed, but I think they are safe due to their solid record even if they lose to Kennedy-Richmond Friday and do not get an automatic bid.

*****

Division IV

Qualifiers (16): Arcata, Fortuna, Justin-Siena, San Marin, Moreau Catholic, Fort Bragg, Middletown, St. Helena, Willits, Salesian, St. Mary’s, Valley Christian, Kennedy-Richmond, Piedmont, Drake, Clear Lake

On the bubble (1): Healdsburg

The breakdown: Clear Lake gained its eligibility by beating Kelseyville last week. Healdsburg can get to 2-1 against D-IV teams with a win over El Molino in its final game. It’s not a given they’d get in though since there are already 16 qualified teams.

Projected field: 1. Salesian, 2. Valley Christian, 3. Justin-Siena, 4. Arcata, 5. Fort Bragg, 6. St. Helena, 7. Fortuna, 8. San Marin, 9. St. Mary’s, 10. Middletown, 11. Kennedy-Richmond, 12. Piedmont, 13. Moreau Catholic, 14. Willits, 15. Drake, 16. Clear Lake

This is the division I know the least about and a lot of the teams are from outside the East Bay, so my projected seeding could be way off. I imagine two-time defending champ Salesian would get the top seed if it beats Valley Christian tomorrow, otherwise VC could be at the top. A loss to a St. Mary’s team that’s not having a great year could hurt VC though. The top six teams listed all have 1-2 losses, so they’re looking solid for good seeds.

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  • Old Former Meddling Coach

    Well the Farmers Got Planted! I guess we’ll see who plays who tomorrow. Hope we draw O’Dowd. Jet Pride!

  • MCAL

    People in Marin don’t like football so MCAL teams get no love on these boards. Here are my two cents.

    Tam should not be behind Petaluma, Sonoma Valley or Hercules. Hercules has literally played no one–and lost. Tam beat Petaluma by two touchdowns–It should have been worse but the coaches took mercy. I won’t play out the transitive property to prove that Tam is better than Sonoma, but I could.

    Novato is legit. Not saying they’re championship good, but they should earn a home game. They should not be penalized for playing a tough out-of-league schedule.

    Terra Linda probably does not belong in the show. They started strong but began to unravel in their MCAL schedule.

    Marin Catholic is Marin Catholic. ’nuff said. 1 or 2,they are going to be in the championship.

  • http://ibabuzz.com PERKIN

    Can’t see the Jets not being less then a 7 seed after tonight. They should be a 6 seed beat 2 teams that beat BOD that everybody had as a Guarenteed 6 seed. Novato weak compared to them. Sorry. Hayward was tough. Acalanes no way ahead of EHS. Miramonte maybe. But I see Encinal 6 Miramonte 7.

  • MiraMan

    Perkin,

    Great season for Encinal. Not only did you claw back to 5-5, but the offense is starting to put up points.

    But #6 seed???? I wouldn’t count on anything above #10.

    Above Miramonte? No way! Miramonte has better wins (Acalanes and Las Lomas vs Aptos and Hayward), our losses are to better teams (worst loss to Dublin vs low ranked Rodriguez) and direct opponent Alameda is no constest (45-7 vs 22-15). Not to mention better record.

    Above O’Dowd? No way! Uh, head-to-head loss. Loss to Castro Valley vs O’Dowd win. Better record.

    Above Acalanes and Novato? I doubt it! In each case, victories are on average similar to Encinal’s, but both teams lost to better teams on average than Encinal. And both have better records. Novato has blow-out losses, but all to great teams. Encinal got blown out by Serra and pretty badly beaten by much lower ranked Castro Valley. Acalanes has all close losses and 1 point loss to Campo.

    Above Tennyson? Maybe. I think you deserve better, but seeding committee may reward strong W-L record.

    All in all, I’d say about an 70% chance you are seeded #10 with a 20% chance you are seeded a little higher (#8 or #9) and a 10% chance its lower.

  • http://ibabuzz.com PERKIN

    Scores aren’t taken into account during seeding my brother. You know that. This ain’t your first bbq. Way stronger strength of schedule.

  • http://ibabuzz.com PERKIN

    IF what your saying is true. Which it may be. Then Encinal should join the B league. Or the MCAL No point in playing all these D1′s & D2′s.

  • Dudleydawson

    acalanes dont wanna see da jets novato please they know. Encinal is a 6,7,or 8 seed. Tennyson is the 7th best team in wacc point blank there b league champs. Novato barely beat tam who barely beat st.pats

  • http://ibabuzz.com bleacher Coach

    Perkins the Jets SOS isn’t that much higher 15.2 according to max preps and the Jets fininsh with a final power ranking of 12.9 (calpreps) and a 5-5 record.

    Mira SOS 11.2 PR 18 and a 6-4 record

    Novato SOS 12.7 they have 1game to play which will be a blowout win so I project there final power ranking to be 18.6 or higher and they finish with a 7-3 record.

    We all know those are numbers the committee does look at.

    Mira and Novato are so close it could go either way but I see Novato at 6 Mira at 7.

    I don’t thnik the Jets make the top 10 the loss to BOD keeps them below BOD which it shouldn’t give that BOD has lost its last 3 games with 2 really bad loses

  • http://www.ibabuzz.com Bleacher Coach

    Correction on the Jets SOS it was not that high it is 13.4

  • MiraMan

    Bleacher Coach,

    I think you have it right.

    Dudleydawson,

    I agree that the teams you mention probably don’t want to meet Encinal.

    Perkin,

    I can see the shock of moving out of BSAL is taking its toll on you. But I have to point out that WAC-Foothill is no Superleague or anything. The two best teams are around 22 calpreps rating and O’Dowd is around 19. Then you have the 1-9 SL at 6 and mighty Hayward, the team Encinal beat last night, at around 3. I’d say its slightly tougher than DFAL, a little weaker than NBL.

  • http://www.ibabuzz.com Bleacher Coach

    Miraman I have seen both Encinal and Novato multiple times.

    In that match up in my opinion Novato has the edge.

    Neither team can throw the ball effectively and I have to give the edge to Novato in the defensive side of the ball. Cory Sails is really fast but the Novato D ends are fast Trevor Rarras hasnt been beat around the end all year. The front 3 for Novato is much improved since the return to line of Calvin Karr who had been out due to a concussion.

    If the Jets where to throw they will be surprised by the the Novato DB’s who have improved every week after getting embarrassed by MC. They have 5 int’s in the last 4 games.

    The BIG BIG BIG issue for Novato is the turnovers. In the 3 games they lost they have 18 turnovers. They had 8 fumbles and 2 int. vs Foothill no way to they can win a game like that.

    So if they where to meet which would be at Novato during the day I would give the edge to Novato 24-7

  • http://www.ibabuzz.com Bleacher Coach

    Dudleydawson the only thing I can say to you is take an English lesson or two

  • http://ibabuzz.com PERKIN

    Bleacher very laughable. The committee does not look at CalPreps. The only people that take CalPreps to draw their conclusions are this blog. Novato, Acalanes, & Tennyson did not play tougher schedule then Encinal or have better wins.

  • Prep Fan

    I would hope the secret committee would be familiar with Calpreps and at least viewed it as there is some good information in there such as schedule strength and records of teams faced. No one should make any decisions based solely on Calpreps, just as they shouldn’t based only on records or a team’s reputation or what league they played in. I would want committee members who have a thorough grasp of high school football in this area and be able to weigh a lot of information & factors into the seeding process, Calpreps just being a small part of that information.

  • http://thedailyreview SJS83

    BOD’s offense might start to roll again after their QB gets used to playing after being out 5 or 6 games. I can see them maybe winning a game in the playoffs. Watch for the reappearance of the Dom to Dom connection that disappeared when Miroglio was out with the shoulder injury. If it works then the whole offense starts clicking.

  • Seattle Slew

    what was the arroyo score?

  • FB Guru

    Here is my DIv III bracket:

    1. EC vs Hercules
    2. MC vs JFK-Fremont
    3. CN vs Sonoma Valley
    4. Campo vs Terra Linda
    5. Analy vs Tamalpais
    6. Mira vs Tennyson
    7. Novato vs Encinal
    8. BOD vs Acalanes

    I apologize in advance to those I have offended by not seeding your team higher than you think they deserve and to Petaluma and Eureka for not including your teams even though they have qualified. Let the games begin.

  • dudleydawson

    my ncs dIII 1.mc 2.ec 3.campo 4.cn 5.analy 6.bod 7.miramonte 8.encinal 9.novato 10.acalanes 11.tennyson 12.tamalpais 13.terra linda 14.sonoma 15.hercules 16.jfk-fremont

  • dudleydawson

    arroyo 17 alameda 14 final

  • http://www.ibabuzz.com Bleacher Coach

    FB Guru I like your seeding except it is my understanding that a league champ must get a first round home game. So with that said Hercules must be seeded higher.

  • Red-dragon

    Huge disappointments this year by Dougherty and san leandro.

  • Prep Fan

    BC, they are not gauranteed a first round home game. Only if they play a team that didn’t win it’s league. If they get the #16 seed, they’ll have to go to EC if they are #1. If they get matched up with CN, then the game will be at Hercules. It’s possible the secret committee may try to give them a home game, but it is not automatic.

  • Seattle Slew

    ncs dIII
    1.EC 2.MC 3.campo 4.cn 5.MIRAMONTE 6.ENCINAL 7.BOD 8.ANALY 9.TAMP 10.NOVATO 11.ACALANES 12.TENNYSON 13.terra linda 14.sonoma 15.hercules 16.jfk-fremont

  • http://ibabuzz.com PERKIN

    Being a League champ is not a factor of where they will be seeded. Tennyson can be a 10 seed & play Novato at 7 & the game will be at Tennyson. Come on Bleacher get it together.

  • EB Prep Fan

    Yeah, Bleacher Coach, SHAKE YOURSELF!!!

  • Old Former Meddling Coach

    So… Where is Island Chef(Not a Chief) His boys couldn’t get it done. Jet Pride!

  • FB Guru

    Div III – Petaluma and Eureka did not apply.

  • marc

    Where can you see who applied?

  • FB Guru

    Sorry Marc, I was at the Raiders game. On the CIFNCS.org site under FB under Forms Verification link.

    I was 8 for 8 on the match-ups, just had some of the seeds slightly off.