- East Bay Prep Corner
Updated NCS football playoff outlook — Divisions III and IV
By Stephanie Hammon
Thursday, November 1st, 2012 at 2:05 pm in East Bay Football.
Here’s a look at the NCS playoff picture in Division III and IV.
Division III
Qualifiers (18): Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman, Campolindo, El Cerrito, Acalanes, Eureka, Novato, Tamalpais, Terra Linda, Analy, Petaluma, Sonoma Valley, Hercules, Bishop O’Dowd, Encinal, Tennyson, Miramonte, Kennedy-Fremont
Needs one more win (2): Alhambra, Piner
The breakdown: Miramonte won its third straight to clinch its playoff eligibility and should receive a pretty decent seed if it wins again Friday against Alhambra. But that Alhambra team will be fighting for its own playoff eligibility. Kennedy-Fremont is officially eligible after beating American and Ygnacio Valley is out after losing last week. Piner is stands a good shot to become eligible (it must beat winless Elsie Allen this week) but that doesn’t guarantee them a spot in the playoffs.
Projected field: 1. El Cerrito, 2. Marin Catholic, 3. Campolindo, 4. Cardinal Newman, 5. Analy, 6. Miramonte, 7. Novato, 8. Acalanes, 9. Bishop O’Dowd, 10. Tennyson, 11. Encinal, 12. Hercules, 13. Tamalpais, 14. Terra Linda, 15. Sonoma Valley, 16. Petaluma
It’s between Marin Catholic and El Cerrito for the top seed. EC (most likely) will be undefeated, so I think they’ll have the edge over MC, even though MC has a higher rated strength of schedule. EC also has a higher power rating on Calpreps and Maxpreps, though is ranked below MC by Cal-Hi Sports’ bowl rankings. It’s also a toss up between Campo and Cardinal Newman for No. 3, though undefeated Analy could be in the mix. There will be at least 18 qualifiers, so who will be left out? I think Piner, even if they win an qualify, could have a hard time making it. Alhambra would have to beat Miramonte to get in, so its chances of making the field are much better than Piner’s. I think Kennedy-Fremont might be out, too. The loser of Petaluma/Sonoma Valley could also be out. Terra Linda and Eureka are on shaky ground, too. Hercules might not get a great seed, but I think they are safe due to their solid record even if they lose to Kennedy-Richmond Friday and do not get an automatic bid.
*****
Division IV
Qualifiers (16): Arcata, Fortuna, Justin-Siena, San Marin, Moreau Catholic, Fort Bragg, Middletown, St. Helena, Willits, Salesian, St. Mary’s, Valley Christian, Kennedy-Richmond, Piedmont, Drake, Clear Lake
On the bubble (1): Healdsburg
The breakdown: Clear Lake gained its eligibility by beating Kelseyville last week. Healdsburg can get to 2-1 against D-IV teams with a win over El Molino in its final game. It’s not a given they’d get in though since there are already 16 qualified teams.
Projected field: 1. Salesian, 2. Valley Christian, 3. Justin-Siena, 4. Arcata, 5. Fort Bragg, 6. St. Helena, 7. Fortuna, 8. San Marin, 9. St. Mary’s, 10. Middletown, 11. Kennedy-Richmond, 12. Piedmont, 13. Moreau Catholic, 14. Willits, 15. Drake, 16. Clear Lake
This is the division I know the least about and a lot of the teams are from outside the East Bay, so my projected seeding could be way off. I imagine two-time defending champ Salesian would get the top seed if it beats Valley Christian tomorrow, otherwise VC could be at the top. A loss to a St. Mary’s team that’s not having a great year could hurt VC though. The top six teams listed all have 1-2 losses, so they’re looking solid for good seeds.
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November 1st, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Stephanie…Looks good…let the comments begin…
November 1st, 2012 at 2:53 pm
I think Novato and Mira should be flipped. If Mira loses to Alhambra the should fall below the Jets at 10 or 11
November 1st, 2012 at 3:56 pm
What if the Jets lose to Hayward?
November 1st, 2012 at 5:04 pm
C’mon Steph! BOD is lower than Mira, Analy, and Novato! Wins against D1′s, Catholics, and traditionally strong schools! Better wins than all those schools put together. Absolutely no cupcakes in their non-league too.
November 1st, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Novato’s best win is Justin Sienna and in your D4 bracket you have them as a 3 seed. Must be a powerhouse down there with number 1 seed Salesian’s best win against 10 seed Middletown (SOS?).
November 1st, 2012 at 6:02 pm
EBfootball I understand what your saying about BOD’s best win but I don’t think the one good win over Castro Valley trumps the two really bad losses. The one vs Hayward is a real stinker.(Whew really stinky)
What happens if the Jets beat Hayward ? Can you seed an Encinal team that beat Hayward lower that a BOD team that lost to Hayward ?
Also food for thought BOD has not blown anyone out all pretty close games that should not have so close.
November 1st, 2012 at 6:21 pm
First of all scores don’t count in seeding or there would be some ugly things happening out there. And if you’re talkin about blowouts Novato got blown out three times. Twice by D3 teams too!
November 1st, 2012 at 6:51 pm
EBfootball dude you need to get off the Div I hype you should read your own post D I , D I , D I whoo whoo whoo.
Quit sucking the D I Jock.
The two D III teams that Novato lost too are way higher rated that your any of the D I schools that BOD played. Hell MC is rated 5 times higher than the D I Farmers that BOD LOST TOO.
November 1st, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Did Novato get blown out or not? By the projected 4 seed in this bracket and they’re supposed to be the 7?
November 1st, 2012 at 7:49 pm
LOL EBfootball your a joke yes the 4th seeded team which is rated higher (33.6) than anyone BOD played beat Novato 28-0. The only team that BOD played with a 30 or higher rating dropped 42 points on you at home.
O bye the way isnt that the same team that slapped around BOD in 2010, dropped 56 on that ass.
November 1st, 2012 at 7:50 pm
If Healdsburg wins against ElMo, I think Moreau might have to sweat out selection Saturday. Healdsburg has a win over Piedmont, and Piedmont has a win over Moreau. Hard to justify leaving Healdsburg out over those two. A 4-6 Moreau, even though they’ve played a tougher schedule, could get left out for a 5-5 or 6-4 Clear Lake.
November 1st, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Err – selection Sunday
November 1st, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Kennedy- Fremont and winner of Sonoma Valley/ Petaluma game should be in. Terra Linda and Eureka should be out. Look at strength of schedule. Out of those 4 teams Kennedy- Fremont has more D-1 and D-2 teams than the rest. But Kennedy- Fremont lost to D-4 Moreau by 1.
November 1st, 2012 at 10:07 pm
BOD lost to SL.. no more BOD talk, they’re bad.
November 1st, 2012 at 10:15 pm
and please.. let’s not pretend that Irvington and Mission San Jose are good D1 teams. They got manhandled by Washington and will likely get manhandled tomorrow night.
November 1st, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Irvington and Mission San Jose suck. But…
TJ,
So why was Washington losing to Kennedy- Fremont 29-28 after 2 mintues into 3rd quarter until 4 minutes left in 4th quarter . From what I have heard the Washington players thought they were going to lose the game.
By the way Irvington is making the playoffs.
November 1st, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Wow BOD lost. Can’t say I’m totally surprised. SL has a good group of athletes. Senior night. Bad taste of losing to another D3 school in their mouths.
November 1st, 2012 at 10:36 pm
50-29 was the end result according to maxpreps. Sounds more like Washington came out flat and scored 21 unanswered points quickly. Not sure about you, but in my world that DOES NOT look good for either team.
Irvington.. thats great that they make it.. but there are teams that will not make it that would destroy them. San Leandro, Granada, Heritage and maybe even Dougherty Valley would cream them. That argument does not work for Kennedy I think.
November 1st, 2012 at 11:10 pm
BOD was never in the game tonight except in the 4th quarter. And even when they looked like they were staging a comeback – it seemed like the coaching staff was having a breakdown with play calling. Hats off to SL – great game, great night and a memorable win. As for BOD, good luck in the playoffs. You’ll need it…
November 1st, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Bishop O’Dowd lst to SL? No way! Can anyone noire this?
November 1st, 2012 at 11:47 pm
Confirm this?
November 1st, 2012 at 11:57 pm
Trust me – SL beat BOD 30 to 26.
November 2nd, 2012 at 12:10 am
Oh yea – forgot to mention that BOD’s starting QB was back from his injury and played the whole game.
November 2nd, 2012 at 4:43 am
Here’s some anticipated bracketology for the upcoming NCS FB playoffs. It ought to provoke some discord and/or disagreement.
The teams’ projected final regular season records are shown.
D1
1. De La Salle 10-0
16. empty
8. San Ramon Valley 4-6
9. Amador Valley 6-4
5. Monte Vista(Danville) 7-3
12. Antioch 6-4
4. Freedom 8-2
13. Castro Valley 5-5
3. California 8-2
14. empty
6. Pittsburg 7-3
11. Berkeley 5-4
7. Deer Valley 7-3
10. Foothill 5-5
2. James Logan 9-1
15. empty
D2
1. Clayton Valley 9-1
16. empty
8. Las Lomas 4-6 (must beat Dougherty Valley)
9. Hayward* 5-5 (must beat Encinal)
5. Casa Grande 7-3
12. American 5-5
4. Concord 8-2
13. Pinole Valley* 4-6 (must beat St. Marys)
3. Northgate 8-2
14. Mt. Eden 5-5
6. Newark Memorial 8-2
11. Arroyo 6-4
7. Washington(Fremont) 6-4
10. Dublin 5-5
2. Rancho Cotate 10-0
15. empty
(College Park if they beat Concord)
D3
1. Marin Catholic 9-1
16. Eureka 3-6
8. Tennyson 9-1
9. Miramonte 6-4
5. Analy 10-0 F
12. Acalanes 6-3 F
4. Campolindo 9-1
13. Hercules 6-3
3. Cardinal Newman 9-1
14. Petaluma 4-6
6. Bishop O’Dowd 7-3
11. Encinal* 5-5 (must beat Hayward)
7. Novato 7-3
10. Sonoma Valley 6-4
2. El Cerrito 10-0
15. Tamalpais 6-4
Other projected qualifiers
(17) Kennedy (Fremont) 4-6
(18) Piner 4-6
D4
1. Salesian 9-1
16. John Swett 5-5 (must beat Albany)
8. Willits 6-4
9. St. Marys* 5-5 (must beat Pinole Valley)
5. Fortuna 7-3
12. San Marin 4-6 F
4. Arcata 9-1 F
13. Moreau Catholic 5-5 (must beat American)
3. Valley Christian(Dublin) 7-3
14. Middletown 7-3
6. Fort Bragg 9-1
11. Piedmont 6-4
7. St. Helena 9-1
10. Kennedy(Richmond) 6-4
2. Justin-Sienna 8-2
15. Clear Lake 5-5
D5
1. Ferndale 9-1
8. empty
4. St. Vincent 8-2
5. Upper Lake 6-4
3. CSD 9-1
6. Calistoga 6-4
2. St. Bernards 6-4
7. Tomales 5-5
* Only half of the * teams will win their final game. However, the anticipated final regular season record is based on the team winning its last game.
The “must beat” teams must win their last game to qualify. Their anticipated final regular season record is based on the team winning its last game. If one of these teams loses, than all the teams in brackets lower will move up a bracket.
F Regular season is finished.
Note: There are too many empty brackets with 1st round passes, especially in D1. NCS ought to change their playoff structure; their league structure (at least for football) too.
November 2nd, 2012 at 6:14 am
Looks like Stephanie knew what she was talking about putting BOD in the lower half of the bracket, nice call Steph.
November 2nd, 2012 at 7:04 am
So if the Jets beat Hayward they would have beat 2 teams that BOD lost too, but BOD beat the Jets do you place the Jets over BOD?
November 2nd, 2012 at 7:25 am
@BleacherCoach,I was wondering the same thing but things will be a bit more clear after tonites game. I feel our guys will make a good showing. Jet Pride!
November 2nd, 2012 at 8:47 am
EC will be the #1 seed in D3.
November 2nd, 2012 at 8:58 am
N-Ya,
I too, think El Cerrito will get the #1 seed with their 10-0 record. However, Marin Catholic tops EC in every other category the seeding committee looks at, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see MC take the top seed.
Frankly, Campolindo matches up better with El Cerrito than MC so I hope EC stays on Campo’s side of the bracket and there is a rematch.
November 2nd, 2012 at 9:04 am
After last nights game between ODowd and San Leandro, the WACC A-League looks like there has been nothing but good games every week. Very exciting that all those teams get to beat up on eachother and compete against one another. That is what football is all about the best teams play eachother and fight it out. Lets see who comes out on top
November 2nd, 2012 at 9:06 am
So BOD lost a close game to a DI team that has a ton of athletes and has played one of the toughest schedules around. WACC is a very tough league and no Marin County team is trying to see any of them in the non league (except MC). The issue is that Novato played nobody and when they did it wasn’t even close. They’re given a high value for hollow wins. That’s called inflation. Ever heard of it? Ruined this nation’s economy.
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:00 am
BOD lost a tough game. Man Down said it best great neighborhood high school football games every week in that A league. Very interested in seeing how the seeding commitee rates the D3 teams in that league (superior league) vs B league and vs other D3 teams. Bleacher Coach, good question. BOD won the field. But San Leandro has a rich tradition of good football and it showed in week 10.
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:02 am
BOD lost a tough game. Man Down said it best great neighborhood high school football games every week in that A league. Very interested in seeing how the seeding commitee rates the D3 teams in that league (superior league) vs B league and vs other D3 teams. Bleacher Coach, good question. BOD won on the field. But San Leandro has a rich tradition of good football and it showed in week 10.
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:21 am
Come on EBfootball I am sure you read the blogs and the newspaper there was nothing close about the game last night.
BOD was down by 22 points going into the 4th Q lost to a 1-9 team and has lost 3 straight going into the post season.
You keep whoo riding on BOD strength of Schedule but it is not that much higher than Novato’s 12.2 Mira’s 11.9 or the Jets at 13.4.
Sure Novato and Mira lost to the higher rated teams but they sure took care of business on the teams they where supposed to while BOD was laying eggs.
Novato and Mira do not lose to those 3 teams.
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:39 am
I was there and I agree, the BOD – SL was never even close. BOD couldn’t even punch it in from inside the 5 yard line in 4 plays with a chance to win the game.
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:51 am
What is going on over at BOD? Last night after they took the opening kickoff and drove down the field and scored (and went for the 2-point conversion for some reason), the next series they went run,run,run punt. After that, they did the same thing, only passing on predictable downs, stalling drives with a “wildcat” package…very odd. After they got way behind (due to some terrible punting – 2 zero yard punts from their own 20), they started passing again, and drove the field (again), and got the score to 30-26. At the end of the game, they were going in for the go ahead score from the 20, and ran it six straight times. The head coach Nickerson could be seen yelling at the offensive coordinator, apparently changing plays to runs. With first and goal from the 3, he ran it into the middle of the line 3 times against a 10-man front, getting stuffed all three times. Anybody else see this?
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:53 am
It will be interesting to see how the committee reviews EC’s 6 wins against DIv IV & V teams. It’s like EC and Encinal have switch places and now EC will enjoy the benefit of being an undefeated league champ and well rested.
November 2nd, 2012 at 11:02 am
Good point Guru.
I think the committee who built these two “super leagues”
really hurt the good DIII teams by forcing them to play up in Div I week in and week out while allowing the traditionally under preforming programs to play each other creating the illusion of a good team .
When you have a 9-1 Tennyson and a 8-2 Hercules team getting home field advantage and getting bounced in the first round while the Jets and BOD get the road games is poor planning.
November 2nd, 2012 at 11:04 am
I was at the SL game, too, Ray. BOD’s starting QB was back and looked good. I thought maybe Hardy was trying to pound the ball to protect him, but he looked fine. No idea why Hardy is getting involved in the offense – they have a good young coordinator who had them clicking earlier in the year before the QB got hurt. It’s too bad – they might have the best combination of receivers and QB that BOD has had in many years, and Hardy is trying to go “smash mouth” for some reason. You have got to give credit to the Pirates though, when they saw that BOD wouldn’t pass unless it was third and long, they loaded up the box, and then blitzed on third down. Good coaching by SL, and fun to see the joy of the players on Senior night, after a tough season.
November 2nd, 2012 at 11:43 am
Exactly. Would Novato want to be in the WACC A or B league?
November 2nd, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Looking at the grind of the WAC Foothill I agree. EHS & BOD should both soften up their non-league. Their league is tough enough. Don’t need to play 9-10 tough games a year.
November 2nd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Perkin,
I agree that anyone in a tough league should look at their pre-league schedule as a way to moderate the overall difficulty of their schedule. However, I think it fair to point out that you were one of the people that ripped me for using that exact logic last year when Miramonte had a soft non-league schedule followed by a tough DFAL schedule.
November 2nd, 2012 at 1:35 pm
FB Guru,
its true that some of these teams records are an illusion and the travesty is that better teams will have to hit the road in the playoffs but I think for some teams just the opportunity to be in the playoffs where they would not otherwise have a chance.
For some teams going into a season they have no chance at the playoffs and the “B” leagues create that opportunity ,which might be good for that respective football program(bad for us fans but good for that football program).And this is not only a product of these super leagues but also with the expansion to 16 teams in the playoffs really kind of renders round 1 a formality more or less.
But when the playoffs start anything can happen Injury or bad bounce and its upset city thats why you play the games.
And in regards to Ec maybe there is a debate when it comes to seeding, the argument could be made for either a 1 or 2 seed but lets be clear they are the real deal this year,im not saying they will win it all but they will make some noise in the playoffs.
November 2nd, 2012 at 1:43 pm
I don’t think DFAL beats you up too much. A lot of throwing teams. Strengthening your non-league this year I think made you a better team. Helped you win games down the stretch. Being 2-4 is tough but you guys formed ranks & got it done.
November 2nd, 2012 at 2:24 pm
MCAL has a built in B league. Right Bleach?
November 2nd, 2012 at 2:49 pm
So, BOD loses to 0-9 SL; BOD finishes the season losing three consecutive games; And Perkin, of all the folks posting on these blogs, suggests that the once mighty Dragons “soften up their non-league schedule”. Uh, the world has now come full circle. LMAO!!!In case you all have short memories, it was just a couple of years ago when Perkin and others commenting on these blogs were bashing the former coach at BOD for scheduling soft non-league opponents. So, what is it?
FYI: Between 1995 – 2009 those teams at BOD played and beat such “soft” opponents as St. Mary’s Berkeley, Monte Vista, Foothill, Amador valley, Berkeley HS, Montgomery, Washington of Fremont, Clayton Valley, San Leandro, Campolindo, Antioch, Sacred Heart (SF)and Ygnacio Valley. They also scheduled non league games against James Logan, Foothill, Monte Vista, St Ignatius, Cardinal Newman, Las Lomas. Won some, lost some. Also played in a league with San Leandro, Hayward, Castro Valley, Arroyo. BOD won four consecutive HAAL titles (96-99). Won three NCS titles (beating Amador Valley, Clayton Valley and campolindo in title games), appeared in five NCS championship games and had a streak of fifteen consecutive NCS playoff appearances. And never did they lose three consecutive games during that run. And, just for the record, BOD played “up” in 3-A between 1996-2003.
My opinion: this 2012 Dragons team has underachieved big time. More talent in skill positions than I have seen at BOD in many, many, many years. More so than some of the BOD NCS championship teams. I have my take on what is wrong and it starts at the top, all the way at the top (think beyond football coaches and AD). Just my opinion.
November 2nd, 2012 at 3:09 pm
John Swett is D-V
November 2nd, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Perkin,
I’m not being critical. Just saying in many cases teams probably aimed a little high. San Leandro and Berkeley are probably cases; sometimes scheduling a cupcake is not a bad strategy. I really believe San Leandro’s season could have gone differently if they’d gotten a win early.
In the case of Miramonte this year I like the tough schedule, but wouldn’t of minded a softer game to open with as we had so many first-year starters. But I agree in the long run this year we got alot of benefit out of a tough schedule. I think the big thing about playing teams like MC, Campo and Analy, even though we didn’t win any of those games, we walked away feeling we could have beaten all of them. Going into the playoff there is no sense that we will be outmatched.
But hey, Miramonte has got to take care of Alhambra or all this talk means nothing. Given they have playoff eligibility at stake, they will play like a team with nothing to lose. Throw all the Calpreps ratings out the window!
November 2nd, 2012 at 3:55 pm
D3 seeding just got very interesting. Until last night, I thought Calpreps had it about right (and SchoolMarm above). The loss by BOD will give the NCS folks some room for pause. I still think their strength of schedule and extenuating circumstances gets them into the top 8, but this late nose dive might hurt them. I wasn’t at the game, but a friend who is a coach was there, and said that Nickerson’s play-calling was a mystery. He has been criticized by some for his defensive game management (he’s the D coordinator), but if he is taking over the offense, BOD has no chance. Their O coordinator is from the Chris Turner tree, and from the games I saw early in the season they had a sophisticated passing attack with a skilled receiver group and a talented QB, as EB FB Fan noted. If Hardy will let them get back to that they have the talent to compete with anyone in the D3 bracket.
November 2nd, 2012 at 8:44 pm
EBfootball the MCAL does not have a built in “B” league.
However because there are 9 teams in the MCAL the bottom two teams do not play the top two team the next season.
I think this works really well
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Well the Farmers Got Planted! I guess we’ll see who plays who tomorrow. Hope we draw O’Dowd. Jet Pride!
November 2nd, 2012 at 10:21 pm
People in Marin don’t like football so MCAL teams get no love on these boards. Here are my two cents.
Tam should not be behind Petaluma, Sonoma Valley or Hercules. Hercules has literally played no one–and lost. Tam beat Petaluma by two touchdowns–It should have been worse but the coaches took mercy. I won’t play out the transitive property to prove that Tam is better than Sonoma, but I could.
Novato is legit. Not saying they’re championship good, but they should earn a home game. They should not be penalized for playing a tough out-of-league schedule.
Terra Linda probably does not belong in the show. They started strong but began to unravel in their MCAL schedule.
Marin Catholic is Marin Catholic. ’nuff said. 1 or 2,they are going to be in the championship.
November 2nd, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Can’t see the Jets not being less then a 7 seed after tonight. They should be a 6 seed beat 2 teams that beat BOD that everybody had as a Guarenteed 6 seed. Novato weak compared to them. Sorry. Hayward was tough. Acalanes no way ahead of EHS. Miramonte maybe. But I see Encinal 6 Miramonte 7.
November 3rd, 2012 at 12:51 am
Perkin,
Great season for Encinal. Not only did you claw back to 5-5, but the offense is starting to put up points.
But #6 seed???? I wouldn’t count on anything above #10.
Above Miramonte? No way! Miramonte has better wins (Acalanes and Las Lomas vs Aptos and Hayward), our losses are to better teams (worst loss to Dublin vs low ranked Rodriguez) and direct opponent Alameda is no constest (45-7 vs 22-15). Not to mention better record.
Above O’Dowd? No way! Uh, head-to-head loss. Loss to Castro Valley vs O’Dowd win. Better record.
Above Acalanes and Novato? I doubt it! In each case, victories are on average similar to Encinal’s, but both teams lost to better teams on average than Encinal. And both have better records. Novato has blow-out losses, but all to great teams. Encinal got blown out by Serra and pretty badly beaten by much lower ranked Castro Valley. Acalanes has all close losses and 1 point loss to Campo.
Above Tennyson? Maybe. I think you deserve better, but seeding committee may reward strong W-L record.
All in all, I’d say about an 70% chance you are seeded #10 with a 20% chance you are seeded a little higher (#8 or #9) and a 10% chance its lower.
November 3rd, 2012 at 1:06 am
Scores aren’t taken into account during seeding my brother. You know that. This ain’t your first bbq. Way stronger strength of schedule.
November 3rd, 2012 at 1:24 am
IF what your saying is true. Which it may be. Then Encinal should join the B league. Or the MCAL No point in playing all these D1′s & D2′s.
November 3rd, 2012 at 2:58 am
acalanes dont wanna see da jets novato please they know. Encinal is a 6,7,or 8 seed. Tennyson is the 7th best team in wacc point blank there b league champs. Novato barely beat tam who barely beat st.pats
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:24 am
Perkins the Jets SOS isn’t that much higher 15.2 according to max preps and the Jets fininsh with a final power ranking of 12.9 (calpreps) and a 5-5 record.
Mira SOS 11.2 PR 18 and a 6-4 record
Novato SOS 12.7 they have 1game to play which will be a blowout win so I project there final power ranking to be 18.6 or higher and they finish with a 7-3 record.
We all know those are numbers the committee does look at.
Mira and Novato are so close it could go either way but I see Novato at 6 Mira at 7.
I don’t thnik the Jets make the top 10 the loss to BOD keeps them below BOD which it shouldn’t give that BOD has lost its last 3 games with 2 really bad loses
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:46 am
Correction on the Jets SOS it was not that high it is 13.4
November 3rd, 2012 at 8:44 am
Bleacher Coach,
I think you have it right.
Dudleydawson,
I agree that the teams you mention probably don’t want to meet Encinal.
Perkin,
I can see the shock of moving out of BSAL is taking its toll on you. But I have to point out that WAC-Foothill is no Superleague or anything. The two best teams are around 22 calpreps rating and O’Dowd is around 19. Then you have the 1-9 SL at 6 and mighty Hayward, the team Encinal beat last night, at around 3. I’d say its slightly tougher than DFAL, a little weaker than NBL.
November 3rd, 2012 at 9:05 am
Miraman I have seen both Encinal and Novato multiple times.
In that match up in my opinion Novato has the edge.
Neither team can throw the ball effectively and I have to give the edge to Novato in the defensive side of the ball. Cory Sails is really fast but the Novato D ends are fast Trevor Rarras hasnt been beat around the end all year. The front 3 for Novato is much improved since the return to line of Calvin Karr who had been out due to a concussion.
If the Jets where to throw they will be surprised by the the Novato DB’s who have improved every week after getting embarrassed by MC. They have 5 int’s in the last 4 games.
The BIG BIG BIG issue for Novato is the turnovers. In the 3 games they lost they have 18 turnovers. They had 8 fumbles and 2 int. vs Foothill no way to they can win a game like that.
So if they where to meet which would be at Novato during the day I would give the edge to Novato 24-7
November 3rd, 2012 at 9:07 am
Dudleydawson the only thing I can say to you is take an English lesson or two
November 3rd, 2012 at 9:36 am
Bleacher very laughable. The committee does not look at CalPreps. The only people that take CalPreps to draw their conclusions are this blog. Novato, Acalanes, & Tennyson did not play tougher schedule then Encinal or have better wins.
November 3rd, 2012 at 11:42 am
I would hope the secret committee would be familiar with Calpreps and at least viewed it as there is some good information in there such as schedule strength and records of teams faced. No one should make any decisions based solely on Calpreps, just as they shouldn’t based only on records or a team’s reputation or what league they played in. I would want committee members who have a thorough grasp of high school football in this area and be able to weigh a lot of information & factors into the seeding process, Calpreps just being a small part of that information.
November 3rd, 2012 at 12:18 pm
BOD’s offense might start to roll again after their QB gets used to playing after being out 5 or 6 games. I can see them maybe winning a game in the playoffs. Watch for the reappearance of the Dom to Dom connection that disappeared when Miroglio was out with the shoulder injury. If it works then the whole offense starts clicking.
November 3rd, 2012 at 5:19 pm
what was the arroyo score?
November 3rd, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Here is my DIv III bracket:
1. EC vs Hercules
2. MC vs JFK-Fremont
3. CN vs Sonoma Valley
4. Campo vs Terra Linda
5. Analy vs Tamalpais
6. Mira vs Tennyson
7. Novato vs Encinal
8. BOD vs Acalanes
I apologize in advance to those I have offended by not seeding your team higher than you think they deserve and to Petaluma and Eureka for not including your teams even though they have qualified. Let the games begin.
November 3rd, 2012 at 6:50 pm
my ncs dIII 1.mc 2.ec 3.campo 4.cn 5.analy 6.bod 7.miramonte 8.encinal 9.novato 10.acalanes 11.tennyson 12.tamalpais 13.terra linda 14.sonoma 15.hercules 16.jfk-fremont
November 3rd, 2012 at 6:52 pm
arroyo 17 alameda 14 final
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:21 pm
FB Guru I like your seeding except it is my understanding that a league champ must get a first round home game. So with that said Hercules must be seeded higher.
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Huge disappointments this year by Dougherty and san leandro.
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:33 pm
BC, they are not gauranteed a first round home game. Only if they play a team that didn’t win it’s league. If they get the #16 seed, they’ll have to go to EC if they are #1. If they get matched up with CN, then the game will be at Hercules. It’s possible the secret committee may try to give them a home game, but it is not automatic.
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:36 pm
ncs dIII
1.EC 2.MC 3.campo 4.cn 5.MIRAMONTE 6.ENCINAL 7.BOD 8.ANALY 9.TAMP 10.NOVATO 11.ACALANES 12.TENNYSON 13.terra linda 14.sonoma 15.hercules 16.jfk-fremont
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Being a League champ is not a factor of where they will be seeded. Tennyson can be a 10 seed & play Novato at 7 & the game will be at Tennyson. Come on Bleacher get it together.
November 3rd, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Yeah, Bleacher Coach, SHAKE YOURSELF!!!
November 3rd, 2012 at 9:28 pm
So… Where is Island Chef(Not a Chief) His boys couldn’t get it done. Jet Pride!
November 4th, 2012 at 9:42 am
Div III – Petaluma and Eureka did not apply.
November 4th, 2012 at 11:02 am
Where can you see who applied?
November 4th, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Sorry Marc, I was at the Raiders game. On the CIFNCS.org site under FB under Forms Verification link.
I was 8 for 8 on the match-ups, just had some of the seeds slightly off.