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Boys Soccer: Updated Playoff Picture, League Races, Rankings, Standings, Stats

By Matt Smith
Saturday, February 2nd, 2013 at 4:27 pm in Boys soccer.

The playoff races in Division I and Division II are starting to sort themselves out. There are still things to be sorted out in the last week, but here is how it looks right now.

Division I

Locks: Amador Valley, Berkeley, California, College Park, De La Salle, Foothill, Monte Vista, Newark Memorial, Pittsburg, Richmond, San Ramon Valley

These 11 teams are in. I moved CP as a lock. They have a quality record, a good league record and a good schedule. They are in.

Qualified, But Not a Lock: Antioch, Logan, Mt. Eden

These three teams have qualified, but a lackluster final week combined with a strong week from a bubble team could keep them out. However, they have a legup on the others right now.

On The Bubble: Alameda, Castro Valley, Deer Valley, Dougherty Valley, Freedom, Irvington, San Leandro, Washington

These eight teams seem to be battling with the three teams above for the final five spots. So 11 teams for five spots.

This is how I think it stands right now, in this order: Logan, Mt. Eden, Antioch, Deer Valley, Freedom, Irvington, Dougherty Valley, Washington, Alameda, Castro Valley, San Leandro.

Again, this could all change day to day. Deer Valley just needs one win to qualify, and then I think they are in. Same for Freedom. I think one win gets them in. The others have to keep winning and hope for a team to slip up. Just in my opinion.
The teams in the best shape to capitalize on a slipup are Irvington (a game over .500 in league), Dougherty Valley (game over .500 overall) and Washington (game over .500 in Division I games).

Division II

Locks: Acalanes, Alhambra, Bishop O’Dowd, Campolindo, Concord, Hayward, Hercules, Kennedy-Fremont, Northgate, Pinole Valley, San Lorenzo, St. Mary’s, Ygnacio Valley

These 13 teams are in.

Qualified, But Not a Lock: De Anza

I can’t see the Dons not getting in, but I want to leave some room for error in case I am missing a result or some bubble teams finish very strongly.

On the Bubble: Albany, Dublin, El Cerrito, Kennedy-Richmond, Miramonte, Moreau Catholic, Piedmont, Salesian

It’s no guarantee that 16 teams will qualify, so just getting eligible could be enough.

Albany- A win or a draw against Pinole Valley should do it.

Dublin- One win or a draw in their last game. This team would get in for sure.

El Cerrito- Need to win the TCAL Tourney, and I’m not sure if that does it.

Kennedy-Richmond- Don’t think they are eligible, but I might be wrong based on some stuff I’ve seen. Leaving myself room for error.

Miramonte- Must win out. If so, I think they’re in.

Moreau Catholic- Need to win out.

Piedmont- A win over Encinal and they’re eligible. If they get eligible, they are in.

Salesian- A couple wins, or a win/draw in the TCAL Tourney are needed to become eligible.

I think De Anza is in. So there are two spots. My frontrunners for those spots are Piedmont and Dublin. However, if Albany, Piedmont, Dublin and De Anza are all eligible, then I think Albany might squeeze De Anza out.

League Races

BVAL- Pittsburg has clinched at least a co-title, and simply needs a draw or a DV draw/loss to win the league outright.

DFAL- The Acalanes Dons win a third straight league title.

DVAL- YV is in position to capture a second straight league title with a win. They’ve already clinched at least a co-title, and just need a win or a draw, or for Concord to lose or draw once.

EBAL- Still three teams alive, but SRV needs DLS to not win either of its last two games. The Spartans simply need to win out, while Monte Vista must keep winning and hope DLS loses or draws along the way.

MVAL- Newark clinches a third straight league title, and in that stretch, hasn’t lost an MVAL game.

OAL- Oakland Tech and Skyline are the two horses in this race.

TCAL- Rock belongs to Richmond, Stone belongs to Hercules.

WACC- Berkeley clinched the Foothill, Hayward wins the Shoreline.

Rankings

The only undefeated team in the East Bay gets back to No. 1 after a three-win week, and another DFAL title. The Dons have an undefeated season in their sites.
De La Salle, now in line for the EBAL title and perhaps an NCS top seed, move up to No. 2 while Berkeley drops to No. 3. Richmond jumps into the top five, a spot behind Monte Vista which moves back into the top five.
California and Hayward move up two spots while Concord moves into the top ten. YV takes a drop, but has a chance to move back up and finish strong.

1. Acalanes (18-0-3)
2. De La Salle (13-3-5)
3. Berkeley (17-2-3)
4. Monte Vista (14-3-4)
5. Richmond (13-3-5)
6. Pittsburg (12-2-5)
7. San Ramon Valley (13-5-3)
8. California (16-4-2)
9. Hayward (15-3-3)
10. Concord (11-1-5)
11. Ygnacio Valley (14-3-4)
12. Campolindo (14-6-2)
13. Foothill (10-6-5)
14. Newark Memorial (11-3-6)
15. College Park (10-8-4)

Others considered: St. Mary’s (11-2-3), Amador Valley (11-8-3), Kennedy-Fremont (9-6-2), Northgate (10-5-6), Hercules (15-4-2), Bishop O’Dowd (9-7-2), Pinole Valley (10-5-1), Freedom (10-9-2), Alhambra (9-6-5), Deer Valley (8-7-4)

Standings

BVAL
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Pittsburg (12-2-5, 6-0-2) 20
Deer Valley (8-7-4, 4-2-2) 14
Antioch (8-5-5, 4-3-1) 13
Freedom (10-9-2, 4-3-1) 13
Liberty (4-7-3, 1-5-2) 5
Heritage (2-12-3, 0-6-2) 2

DFAL
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Acalanes (18-0-3, 9-0-2) 29
Campolindo (14-6-2, 6-3-1) 19
Dublin (7-8-4, 5-5-1) 16
Dougherty Valley (8-7-1, 4-5-1) 13
Miramonte (5-7-4, 3-5-2) 11
Alhambra (9-6-5, 2-5-3) 9
Las Lomas (1-11-5, 1-7-2) 5

DVAL
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Ygnacio Valley (14-3-4, 9-1-1) 28
College Park (10-8-4, 7-2-2) 23
Concord (11-1-5, 6-0-4) 22
Northgate (10-5-6, 4-4-2) 14
Berean Chr. (6-9-2, 3-6-1) 10
Mt. Diablo (1-9-1, 1-8-1) 4
Clayton Valley (0-19-2, 0-9-1) 1

EBAL
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

De La Salle (13-3-5, 8-1-3) 27
Monte Vista (14-3-4, 8-2-2) 26
San Ramon Valley (13-5-3, 7-3-2) 23
California (16-4-2, 7-4-1) 22
Foothill (10-6-5, 4-5-3) 15
Amador Valley (11-8-3, 3-7-2) 11
Livermore (4-13-4, 2-8-2) 8
Granada (4-12-4, 1-10-1) 4

MVAL
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Newark Memorial (12-3-7, 8-0-4) 28
Kennedy (9-6-2, 6-4-2) 20
Logan (8-8-6, 5-3-4) 19
Irvington (6-7-7, 5-4-3) 18
Washington (5-5-9, 3-3-6) 15
Moreau Catholic (3-8-5, 3-5-4) 13
Mission San Jose (4-9-8, 2-5-5) 11
American (3-11-4, 1-9-2) 5

OAL
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Oakland Tech (3-3-2, 3-0-1) 10
Skyline (2-0-1, 2-0-1) 7
Castlemont (0-2-0, 0-2-0) 0
Fremont (0-2-0, 0-2-0) 0
Oakland (0-1-0, 0-1-0) 0

TCAL Rock
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Richmond (13-3-5, 8-0-2) 26
St. Mary’s (11-2-3, 8-1-1) 25
Albany (7-10-4, 4-5-1) 13
El Cerrito (6-14-1, 4-5-1) 13
Salesian (4-5-4, 2-5-3) 9
St. Joseph Notre Dame (3-16-1, 0-10-0) 0

TCAL Stone
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Hercules (15-4-2, 9-0-1) 28
Pinole Valley (10-5-1, 7-2-1) 22
De Anza (8-5-2, 6-2-2) 20
Kennedy (4-9-0, 4-6-0) 12
Swett (2-10-0, 2-8-0) 6
St. Patrick-St. Vincent (0-12-0, 0-10-0) 0

WACC Foothill
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Berkeley (17-2-3, 13-0-1) 40
Bishop O’Dowd (9-7-2, 8-5-1) 25
Alameda (7-10-5, 6-7-1) 19
Mt. Eden (7-9-6, 4-4-6) 18
Castro Valley (5-9-5, 5-6-3) 18
Arroyo (5-10-5, 4-7-3) 15

WACC Shoreline
Team W-L (overall, league) PTS

Hayward (15-3-3, 10-2-2) 32
San Lorenzo (9-4-2, 8-4-2) 26
Piedmont (6-9-1, 5-8-1) 16
San Leandro (4-10-4, 4-6-4) 16
Tennyson (3-15-3, 3-9-2) 11
Encinal (1-13-0, 1-13-0) 3

Stat Leaders

Name School Goals
Montes, Richmond 34
Ayala, YV 24
Gala, Dougherty 20
Cendejas, Free 20
Romero, Hercules 19
R. Castillo, Hayward 17
Berumen, Pitt 17
Solomon, Berkeley 15
Fink, BOD 15
Reiter, CP 14
Al. Marques, Hercules 14
Grixti, Cal 12
Sandoval, Pinole 12

Name School Assists
Murgia, Pitt 20
Damian, YV 18
Alvarez, Richmond 16
Gomez, Hayward 14
Bramvila, Richmond 13
Clark, FH 12
Montes, Richmond 11
Croze, Acalanes 10
Torres, Moreau 10
Lindgren, Acalanes 9
Hamdouni, Berkeley 9
Espinosa, St. Mary 9
Aguilar, YV 9

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  • Matt Smith

    I will have it by tomorrow evening, as soon as I get the results from Richmond v. St. Mary’s and SRV v. MSJ.

  • Monreal

    Thanks..Matt

  • Matt Smith

    Right now my computer ranking likes MV the best, and shows Freedom safely in.

  • Monreal

    do you think Kennedy (Fremont) will have a home advantage?

  • Matt Smith

    @Monreal That one is a tough call right now. I can see them anywhere between an 7-10 seed.

  • Monreal

    so it depends on the other team as well???

  • Matt Smith

    Indeed it does. I’ve got to look at the numbers very closely, but I see a battle for a top eight position.

  • Monreal

    okay…can’t wait for your result! Thanks Matt!

  • EBALDad

    Matt, computer ranking?
    no need to share the algorithm
    but perhaps you can enlighten us on your variables
    I’m guessing that MV’s strength of total schedule is a big factor in your computers thoughts. As well as results of course.

  • Stewie

    Current EPL
    DLS
    MUFC
    MV
    ManCity
    SRV
    Arsenal
    Cal
    Everton

    Oh wait I was having a dream

  • Stewie

    De La Salle Team Improves with each game, deep bench
    Monte Vista Good when on all cylinders
    San Ramon Valley Needs to pull it together
    Richmond A dash of discipline with creativity will help
    California Wilcox factor needed & willpower by others
    Foothill Put it all together can do something
    Pittsburgh Will need to dig deep too many bandages
    Amador Valley Can Hang for 40 and that’s about it.
    Newwark Predictable and fades physically
    Berkeley a faint flicker of light tactical game soft.

  • Jimmy the Greek

    Stewie I think you underestimate Berkeley quite a bit. But we shall see. NCS spoiler? Watch out for Foothill.
    2nd NCS spoiler? The league champions that get to host even though they are a significantly lower seed! 3rd NCS spoiler? Admission prices!

  • dsocc

    Berkeley 1, Castro Valley 0…CV held them off well

  • Matt Smith

    @EBALDad I use something that considers strength of schedule, quality wins and record so that my seedings aren’t just totally based on my opinion. I see what the computer spits out and then I organize my predictions based on common sense.
    For example, the computer really loves Cal, but I think they’ll be a few spots lower than the formula says.

  • Itsabob

    DLS Bench, Call it the Lurk Squad, anybody can come in and Boom Boom they just hit you with a goal. Yes they have the usual suspects but when the battle goes into the trenches somebody out of nowhere gets the job done. Spartans seem to thrive on the NCS run. Not saying they cant be beat, but whoever would, will need a total game on to accomplish that feat.

  • Itsabob

    @ Matt..do you have all the game results on non ebal teams that played EBAL teams Can you Post?

  • DFAL Fan

    Matt…Did You come up with more than 16 Teams qualifying in D II.

  • Matt Smith

    @Itsabob I do have that information, but that would take me a while to post. Not sure I’ll have the time today with the seeding predictions and stuff I’m working on.

    @DFAL Fan There are 17 teams qualified in Division II. One will be left out.

  • Dfal1

    DIVISION II SEEDING PREDICTIONS

    1. Acalanes
    2. Ygnacio Valley
    3. Hayward
    4. Campolindo
    5. Concord
    6. St. Mary’s
    7. Hercules
    8. Northgate
    9. Kennedy(Fremont)
    10. San Lorenzo
    11.Dublin
    12. O Dow’d
    13.Alhambra
    14. Pinole
    15. Albany/ Deanza
    16. Piedmont

    From seed #8 and below it gets very hard. I think they can change a lot.

  • Itsabob

    @Matt…Thanks will help in strength of schedule evaluation. Also who of notable strength has Acalanes taken on?

  • Stewie

    D II
    1. Acalanes
    2. Hayward
    3. Campo
    4. YV
    5. Hercules
    6. Concord
    7. Northgate
    8. St. Marys
    9. Kennedy(Fremont)
    10. San Lorenzo
    11.Dublin
    12. BOD
    13.Alhambra
    14. Pinole
    15. Albany/ Deanza

  • Stewie

    D II
    1. Acalanes
    2. Hayward
    3. Campo
    4. YV
    5. Hercules
    6. Concord
    7. Northgate
    8. St. Marys
    9. Kennedy(Fremont)
    10. San Lorenzo
    11.Dublin
    12. BOD
    13.Alhambra
    14. Pinole
    15. Albany/ Deanza
    16. Piedmont

  • Dfal1

    Stewie,

    YV has a head to head win on Hayward(5-2) which I think will help them get the #2 seed. Campo also lost last night which should drop them.

    St. Mary’s just beat Hercules and has a good overall record and should be in front of then and Northgate easily.

  • Matt Smith

    The new stuff is up: http://www.ibabuzz.com/prepcorner/2013/02/09/boys-soccer-seeding-predictions-rankings-standings-stats-2/

    @Itsabob Acalanes has beaten SRV, College Park and Freedom who are all Division I playoff teams. They’ve also beaten YV, Campo and Hayward who will probably be the 2, 3, 4 seeds in Division II.

  • DFAL Fan

    @Dfal1 & @Stewie…Is Piedmont Your Team on the outside looking in after Albany & De Anza?

  • eL Pata

    I demand a live videocast of Matt Smith making the seeding predictions. He will hang each teams scarf on a board. Think signing day with hats; but not lame.

    Make it so BANG!

  • 11 v11

    DII

    1. Acalanes
    2. Hayward
    3. Yv
    4. Concord
    5. Campo
    6. St. Mary’s
    7. Hercules
    8. Northgate
    9. Kennedy (f)
    10. BOD
    11. Dublin
    12. San Lorenzo
    13. Alhambra
    14. Albany
    15. Pinole
    16. Piedmont / De Anza

    Good luck to all.

  • HalaMadrid

    College park isnt in your guyses predictions??? Or they disnt make it?