Friday night shake up: NCS 4-A, 3-A, 2-A East Bay playoff pictures

NCS 4-A East Bay playoff picture

Locks: De La Salle (9-0), California (9-1, 5-1 EBAL), James Logan (10-0, 5-0 MVAL), San Leandro (8-2, 7-0 HAAL), Berkeley (5-3-1, 5-0-1), Pittsburg (5-4-5-1 BVAL)

Probables: none

Bubble teams: Amador Valley (6-4, 2-4 EBAL), Foothill (6-4, 3-3 EBAL), Monte Vista (7-3, 3-3 EBAL), Deer Valley (7-3, 5-2 BVAL)

My picks/seeding: 1. De La Salle; 2. James Logan; 3. California; 4. San Leandro; 5. Monte Vista; 6. Pittsburg; 7. Deer Valley; 8. Berkeley

My goodness. Talk about throwing a chink in the chain. Amador lost to Foothill and Monte Vista took care of San Ramon Valley to throw this whole thing in a loop. This is going to be a crazy NCS seeding meeting on Sunday. Let me try to break this down the best I can.

I think Amador is going to be out because of the loss to Granada and now to Foothill. I think Deer Valley will get in because of its strong overall record and 4-1 record against 4-A schools. I think Monte Vista, even though it lost to Amador head-to-head, will get the nod for beating Foothill, Granada and SRV _ all teams Amador couldn’t beat.

The other scenario I could see is Deer Valley being left out and Foothill and Monte Vista getting the nod. Amador still has a shot, but it is a long one. And the Dons only have one because of the win over Monte Vista.


Locks: San Ramon Valley (8-1-1, 5-1 EBAL); Newark Memorial (9-1, 5-1 MVAL);  Pinole Valley (8-1-1, 5-1-1 ACCAL); Alameda (7-3, 4-3 ACCAL); College Park (8-2, 7-2 DFAL).

Probables: American (6-4, 3-3 MVAL), Arroyo (6-4, 3-4 HAAL)

Bubble teams:  Tennyson (5-5, 3-4 HAAL); Washington (4-5-1, 4-2 MVAL); Clayton Valley (4-6, 3-4 BVAL).

My picks/seedings: 1. San Ramon Valley; 2. Newark Memorial; 3. Pinole Valley; 4. College Park; 5. Alameda; 6. Arroyo; 7. American; 8. Tennyson

This is another mess at the bottom. I changed my mind about Washington getting in over Tennyson. The two forfeit losses by Washington to Arroyo and Tennyson shouldn’t have been dished out if they aren’t going to count. So NCS should award Tennyson a spot because of its head-to-head win over Washington. I can still see Washington getting into the playoffs because it beat American and Tennyson being left out, but then what would be the point of handing out the forfeit win if it doesn’t really matter?


Locks: Las Lomas (10-0, 9-0 DFAL), Heritage (7-3, 5-2 BVAL), Bishop O’Dowd (7-2, 5-1 HAAL), Encinal (8-2, 6-1 ACCAL)

Probables: Piedmont (7-3, 5-1 BSAL), Acalanes (6-4, 6-3 DFAL), Campolindo (7-3, 6-3 DFAL)

Bubble teams: El Cerrito (5-5, 3-4 ACCAL), Miramonte (5-5, 4-5 DFAL), Northgate (5-5, 4-5 DFAL), Ygnacio Valley (6-4, 4-3 BVAL) 

My picks/seedings: 1. Las Lomas; 2. Heritage; 3. Encinal; 4. Bishop O’Dowd; 5. Acalanes; 6. Campolindo; 7. Ygnacio Valley; 8. Piedmont.

Encinal’s win over Alameda mixed up the seedings a bit. I think Northgate’s loss to Alhambra will keep Piedmont and Ygnacio Valley in the playoffs. I feel pretty good about this one. O’Dowd plays on Saturday, but I don’t think a win or loss moves them from the No. 4 seed.


NCS 4-A East Bay playoff picture

Thank goodness for overtime in the Hayward Area Athletic League. I got the chance to watch San Leandro’s thrilling 15-14 overtime victory over Castro Valley on Friday night. Man, what a game.

But, on another note, let’s breakdown the NCS  4-A playoff picture. Things are beginning to shape up after Week 8.

NCS 4-A picture 

Locks: De La Salle (7-0), California (7-1, 4-1 EBAL), James Logan (8-0, 3-0 MVAL)

Near locks: Berkeley (4-3-1, 4-0-1 ACCAL), Pittsburg (4-4, 4-1 BVAL), San Leandro (6-2, 5-0 HAAL).

Bubble teams: Mt. Eden (5-3, 4-1 HAAL), Amador Valley (6-2, 2-2 EBAL), Foothill (5-3, 2-2 EBAL), Monte Vista (5-3, 2-2 EBAL), Deer Valley (6-2, 4-2 BVAL)

My picks/seeding: 1. De La Salle; 2. James Logan; 3. California; 4. San Leandro; 5. Amador Valley; 6. Pittsburg; 7. Deer Valley; 8. Berkeley

My take: The EBAL could be on the outside looking in when it is all said and done. Four spots are likely to go to league champions(JL, SL, Pitt, Berkeley) plus De La Salle makes five spots gone. That means only three spots are availabe for at-large hopeful teams. And California at 7-1 right now are a lock for a spot. That means, the way I see it, two spots are up for grabs going into the final two weeks.

Amador Valley gets Foothill and California in the next two games. A win over Foothill or California figures to get them into the playoffs. Amador should be able to get that done.

Deer Valley’s win over Granada earlier this season might be enough to get them into the playoffs. Granada own a win over Amador and if Amador knocks off Foothill or Cal, that will make Deer Valley’s win even bigger. If Amador beats Foothill, that could spell the end for the Falcons. Monte Vista would be the only threat to Deer Valley getting the final spot. If I had my own decision, I would put Monte Vista in. But I have a feeling NCS won’t see it that way.

Monte Vista and Foothill play each other this week. The loser of this one will probably not reach the playoffs. And if Amador beats Foothill, and Foothill beats Monte Vista, that will be it for Monte Vista.