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Archive for March, 2007

“They shouldn’t be there in the first place.”

CBR002552That’s kind of the attitude I seem to be getting from a lot of East Bay residents and beyond when there’s talk about the subprime fallout and how it’s affected all home loans.

I remember writing the story and talking to Christopher Thornberg, an economist and founding partner of Beacon Economics based in West Los Angeles. (For those of you who don’t know, West Los Angeles is the tony part of L.A. hence the emphasis on West.)

“I’ll make a different claim,” he said about people trapped in the subprime mess. “They shouldn’t be there in the first place.”

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Posted on Friday, March 30th, 2007
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Who’s your fortuneteller? Not me!

I get a few calls a day from people asking me what’s a “good buy” right now. “Should I invest in office condos or my own building?” I was asked by a persistent caller yesterday.

And while I did spend a few months in college as a part-time phone psychic, I’m a better newspaper reporter. Which means I can’t predict the future and I don’t try (I also don’t give out financial advice, so stop calling, Mom.) Many of the experts and economists don’t know either. So your guess may be just as good as the country’s top economic wizards.

On another note, the Associated Press reported a rise in late payments today on home equity loans:

Some homeowners - especially those with adjustable-rate mortgages who are unable to refinance because of poor credit histories - have gotten clobbered. Weak home prices and higher interest rates have made it difficult for them.

Posted on Thursday, March 29th, 2007
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Housing starts dropped 42 percent in February

CB067787Although probably not a surprise to anyone reading the hundreds of reports of home building on the decline, the California Building Industry Association reported today that housing starts fell 42 percent from last year in February.

Building permits were pulled for 6,214 single-family homes in the state, also down 35 percent from last February.

CBIA Chief Economist Alan Nevin attributed the continuing slide to builders concentrating on moving their existing inventory rather than building new homes.

In the meantime, if you read the Times today, you would see at least two stories that may shed some light on the situation.

From the Associated Press:

ATLANTA - Shares of Beazer Homes USA Inc. fell more than 8 percent Wednesday after the FBI said it is among agencies investigating possible fraud in the company’s mortgage lending practices and other financial transactions. The homebuilder said it was cooperating with a federal prosecutor’s request for documents.

And another:

MIAMI - One by one, some of the nation’s largest homebuilders have seen quarterly earnings get crushed by the slump in the housing market.

Lennar Corp. became the latest victim Tuesday, with a 73 percent plunge in first-quarter earnings and predictions that it is going to fall short of 2007 earnings goals. Since the start of February, homebuilders KB Homes, Hovanian Enterprises Inc. and Toll Brothers Inc. all reported falling profits.

Posted on Wednesday, March 28th, 2007
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Office Condomania!

288221023619 If you have seen my story today on office/commercial condominiums, you would know that it’s a growing trend for small business owners who want to own their own property. Venture Corp. has several projects still selling in the Bay Area and will have more in the coming year.

Will office and commercial condos hold their value? That’s a question many are asking especially in light of the residential condo bust in South Florida. But, according to reports, the commercial condo market may not be as badly hit since vacant office space is on the decline. And commercial condo owners can always rent out the space if they can’t find anyone to buy it, something residential condo owners are realizing too.

Posted on Tuesday, March 27th, 2007
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