My story today was based on how many local projects are being considered “green.” Unfortunately, we all have different ideas what that means unless we’re talking about Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED)by the U.S. Green Building Council.

I hope to do a few more stories on this topic so we’re all on the same page.

Today I also heard from Frank Nothaft, chief economist and vice president of Freddie Mac and Douglas G. Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association who didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know — the subprime market fallout affected the prime lending industry. (And several statistics were from the Bay Area company, First American LoanPerformance, and already reported in the Times.)

(The photo is of Independence Hall in Philadelphia by B. Krist.)
This morning we had a housing update from Bernard Markstein, vice president of forecasting and analysis for the National Association of Home Builders. I think my favorite part of his approximately 40-minute talk were the phrases “phantom demand” and the “greater fool theory,” reasons he gave for the huge run-up and fall of housing demand.

Markstein said that in 2006 builders, as well as homeowners, were believing they could sell for a profit due to “phantom demand,” or demand that really wasn’t there. The “greater fool theory” relies on the idea that if you made a bad financial decision/purchase, there’s a bigger or greater fool out there than you who will pay for it, right? Either way, they both made me chuckle.

Markstein also said that builder cancellations have more than doubled in the past year, not so much because people getting wise but because their financing wasn’t approved. The days of “preapproval” are gone and many people quickly found out that “preapproved” was just a phrase.

In case anyone’s wondering, I’m in Philadelphia attending the National Association of Real Estate Editors Real Estate Journalism Conference. Thursday’s agenda is tackling the subprime loan industry, historical architecture and new real estate trends. I will be posting throughout the conference (which ends Saturday!) about any new information.

So far it’s hot (90 degrees) and humid (40 percent) which makes me realize how lucky I am to live in the Bay Area. But the architecture here is amazing.

The photo is of the Avenue of the Arts at night (and others in the next few days will be) courtesy of the Greater Philadelphia Tourism Marketing Corporation.

Each year, Remodeling Magazine rates projects that give homeowners the most money back when they sell. According to its 2006 Cost vs. Value report, average people in the West actually make money if they do a bathroom remodel, minor kitchen remodel (like updating cabinets, counters, sink, etc. for around $19,000) create a second-story addition or replace windows.

Probably the most cost-effective was the bathroom remodel where homeowners spent around $15,000. Homeowners usually received 103.2 percent of their investment back. The minor kitchen remodel return on investment was 106.4 percent.

The worst payback was a sunroom addition (70.6 percent) and the home office remodel (77.7 percent.)

What does this tell you? Remodeling isn’t going to make you a resale bundle, but if you choose to put money into your house there are a few spots that buyers appreciate most. Why not use it in a place where most people find it necessary?

Personally, I don’t care for decks (91.1 percent) but I see them practically everywhere. As a buyer, I would be happier to see an updated kitchen and cement countertops.

So, if you saw this story in today’s CCT, what did you think?

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said rising defaults in the subprime mortgage market and tightening loan standards will bring a “continued period of weakness” to housing, making it difficult to forecast growth in the next year.

“We have considerable difficulty,” Greenspan said Thursday in a speech in Atlanta. “We have never been through anything like this. I can’t say how it is going to come out.”

Greenspan cited the housing slump as the major factor weighing on U.S. growth through next year. Last week, he said there was a 2-to-1 chance the U.S. economy will avoid a recession this year, similar to his view in March.

. . . Bernanke maintained his forecast that the slump in housing won’t have a broader impact on the economy.

Bernanke’s comments reflect the consensus of policymakers that the downturn in housing is unlikely to cause consumers to cut spending.

Several economists I have talked to including the provocative Christopher Thornberg, have expressed sentiments like Greenspan’s. This is a unique situation where housing really has taken a hit without a huge economic downturn prompting it. Before, a recession caused a housing decline. So now, people are wondering can a floundering housing market actually cause a recession? Or can one exist without the other?

This has turned economists’ worlds topsy-turvy. They don’t know what to predict. So they are either on two sides of the fence: economy and jobs looks good, so economy is strong and housing has no impact like Bernanke; or jobs and economy seem good, but housing is weak and having an impact on consumer spending — this might be more serious than we first thought, like Greenspan.

In case you were interested in the whole DataQuick monthly report about the Bay Area, it’s available here.

Individual city information will be available in the next week and I will keep you posted, although I doubt the numbers will be very different from last month’s information. Good luck!

While there are some things you can do to make your property sell, like clean it, de-clutter, stage it and plant some bright flowers in the front yard — oh, and price it competitively — it’s tough when you keep seeing stories like these around.

I try not to write a lot about the national numbers because our economy in California is much different than in most of the country. You really can’t compare the housing market of the East Bay with Southern Maine, which is what national statistics do. Instead I try to focus any sales statistics on statewide numbers which include those for the East Bay.

Today we should have April’s statistics for the state from DataQuick Information Services, a La Jolla-based company, which we use. Those can be taken more seriously if you would like to take the numbers to heart.

In the end, it’s what you can do to sell your home, and you have to ask yourself, have I done everything I could? Personally, I spent $150 and put up Christmas decorations. I did get an offer a month later but I never knew if it was the Rudolph pot holders or not.

I hurt my knee and my househunting has been curtailed. It was amazing how many houses had stairs both to the house itself and a second floor, making me realize how few homes were really made for those with mobility issues.

I really love those Victorians with staircases, but when injured they are simply a big obstacle to overcome. It’s something I didn’t really think about.

According to the Easter Seals/Century 21 accessible tips:

*Going in, going out. For maximum maneuverability, skip the stairs. Entrances should be made of flat, even surfaces that gradually slope toward doors. Consider wide-entrance doors that open into a home, boast lever-style handles and provide enough space for a wheelchair.

*Bath basics. Walk-in, curb-less and door-less entry showers are a beautiful and stylish choice for today’s master baths, but they’re also a great choice for accessibility. Install non-slip and flat surface flooring, grab bars, removable shower heads to adjust for various heights, and faucet controls set low and away from shower heads to safely adjust water temperatures.

As for my house hunt, I’m hoping there will be something within the next six months. I will keep you posted.

The California Reinvestment Coalition announced today that it and more than 100 other state consumer groups have asked Bank of America, Citibank, Countrywide, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo to declare a six-month foreclosure moratorium and help find financial solutions for the millions affected by the subprime fallout.

A copy of the letter sent to CEOs:

High risk loans were sold aggressively in our state over the last few years. These loans were appropriate for many homebuyers and homeowners. These loans include:

*Subprime mortgage loans with high rates and fees;
*Hybrid Adjustable Rame Mortgages (ARMs) with low teaser rates followed by dramatically escalating interest rates;
*Option ARM and Interest-Only loans;
*Fradulently-stated income loans;
*Problematic loans made to seniors; and
*Loans to non-English-speaking borrowers who are given English-only loan documents with worse terms.

Those signing the letter included City of Oakland Economic Development Agency, East Bay Asian Local Development Corporation, Fair Housing Law Project and the NAACP State Conference of Branches.

I was happy to see my story today didn’t have the title, “Prefabulous!”. As I looked over the Marmol Radzinger Prefab Web site, I found that title listed no less than six times.

Valley Home Development, owned by Steve and Nikki Vallejos in Fairfield, didn’t have quite so much press, but you may see the “Prefabulous” moniker again soon. Maybe you won’t be as bothered as I am.

Either way, I had three people contact me today wanting to learn how to purchase one of these homes — to live in, to use as a rental and another wanted to know how they are marketed if she wanted to resell one. (One also e-mailed me about proofreading my stories — I think it was my editor!)

I think it’s always a good idea to have more than one option when building a home. And if anyone out there can afford a lot, why not think about it?