(Note: Want to write the lead to the blog? Send e-mail to jmcdonald@angnewspapers.com).

By Mark Finzel
Haslett, Michigan

A great deal of speculation with a hopeful slant abounds regarding the prospects of the Raiders 2007 offense under new Coach Lane Kiffin.

But what are the prospects for the defensive unit? A lot of the same players are back, and the organization retained popular defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. It is logical to assume that the performance of the defensive team in the upcoming season will correlate with its performance last year. Raider fans all agree that the unit is on the upgrade. However, what did Oakland do well last year, and how can the team improve?

Combing through the NFL official game book can give some interesting insight in this regard. Running plays are classified as being directed toward left end, left tackle, guard, middle, etc. around to right end (seven groups in all), while passing plays are scored as either short or deep (greater than 15 yards downfield) as well as left, center, or right (six types).

QB scrambles have direction similar to running plays, but sacks don’t, so these plays will be averaged between left, center, and right. Spikes (three total all year), kneeldowns (26), and fumbled snaps (5) are not truly defensible plays, so they won’t be included in the averages. Not as good as game film, but game books are what this observer has stored on his hard drive, so they’re what will be used.

To begin, the Raider’s defensive right side outperformed the left by a significant margin. This is to be expected, due to the continuing strong performance of Derrick Burgess and the rise of Nnamdi Asomugha. For about 325 plays to each side, the Raiders allowed 4.63 yards per play to their right and 4.95 yards per play to their left.

This pattern repeats itself for every measurement – TD/turnover ratio (10/11 right, 9/6 left), NFL passer rating (56 right, 75 left), average yards per rush (4.2 vs. 4.9), and tackles for loss (26 vs. 15).

While Fabian Washington is a keeper, the team could definitely use an upgrade at left end and left linebacker. RLB Thomas Howard had no sacks or turnovers, but his strong play showed up in the stats for his side of the defense. One wonders how many of Asomugha’s six interceptions on short throws came as a result of something Howard did.

Both cornermen shut down the deep throw extremely well, allowing two TDs in 65 attempts. NFL ratings on deep routes were 35 to Asomugha’s side, and 48 to Washington’s side. One can see evidence of contrasting styles.

Washington is still new, and he lays off with an emphasis on shutting down longer routes, relying on closing speed. Oakland allowed fewer than ten yards per completion on passes to their left.

However, in the Short Left area, the Raiders only had two picks (Washington and Terdell Sands!). That’s the place the opposition went when they wanted to get a fast and safe eight yards. Asomugha, on the other hand, plays tighter and shuts down everything. If Washington jumps a few in the flat this year and scores a TD, that’s the next level for him. It looks like Mr. Davis has his cornerbacks. If the Raiders keep this combo together, it could be Hayes and Haynes all over again.

It was obvious from this play-by-play breakdown that Oakland’s defensive weak spot was up the middle (TD/turnover ratio 13/5). The most common play against Oakland was the buck over center (185 plays). In the middle of the field, 66% of the plays were runs (3.66 avg.), which is worse than average for line bucks even though the Raiders likely knew it was coming.

This ability of Oakland’s opponents to control the middle created a ripple effect so that the fine pass defense displayed on the flanks disappeared on middle routes (NFL Rating 91, 8.3 yards per pass).

No wonder Huff and Schweigert had zero interceptions, they had to play run support all the time and got burned, although Morrison had a couple picks and Carr scored once. Maybe Morrison is still learning run defense, maybe Sapp is blowing off the run to get sacks, or maybe it’s coaching. But if the Raiders don’t shore up their interior run defense, does it really matter that much if Huff or Schweigert plays FS? They’ll both wind up essentially playing linebacker anyway.

This is a serious problem. Oakland could have drafted a run stuffing DT. Maybe it just doesn’t concern the owner or defensive coaches. Hope Lane Kiffin has an idea here that changes this trend of playing badly against the run. These are the results for Rob Ryan in his first three years as defensive coordinator.

537 attempts, 2,012 yards

507 attempts, 2,049 yds

540 attempts, 2,144 yds

Looks like an SAT question. What’s the next pair in the sequence? Hmmm … 510 att, 2107 yds.

This is a profile of a defense that depends on quickness, great athleticism, team speed, and coordination. Indianapolis plays this way too, but they have Peyton Manning, and defense of this type needs an offense in order to win. There’s some great pass coverage, they hustle and prevent big plays, but the intimidation factor seems low.

The Raiders need more of a bone rattling presence. An example of this is a lack of forced fumbles – seven all year! On all those running plays, a total of two, one more on a pass reception, and four on QB sacks. Even that’s a little skewed, because three of them came ON CONSECUTIVE PLAYS against Houston, and Oakland lost anyway.

The defense failed to win the scrum for any of the five fumbled snaps they had a chance to pick up. Can Darnell Bing become the next Assassin? Or anyone else? Good question, because the Raiders sure could use one.

Overall, the defense is getting better, but Lane Kiffin has some holes yet to plug, and he has to find a way to stop the running of his AFC West rivals. If Oakland rests on the accolades the improving defense earned last year, it’s more of the same, Oakland controlling the back line and the opposition controlling the line of scrimmage. Can the Raiders cut it to 1,500 yards allowed rushing this year? Can’t wait to see, let’s play some ball!

(Note: Got a lead item for the blog? Send it to jmcdonald@angnewspapers.com. I’ll post infrequently until the days preceeding training camp, so it’s your show).

By Coach Sean

This year could be one of the most pivotal years in Raider history. A franchise that has stood for greatness and tradition, pride and poise, commitment to excellence and yada, yada for so long (more appropriately so long ago) has fallen into it’s self-made Black Hole, finding itself on the cusp of irrelevancy.

The man who has been chosen THIS year, to return the struggling franchise to greatness is Lane Kiffin, son of Monte, co-coordinator of Pete Carroll’s mighty Trojans. His youthful energy has brought an air of excitement, a fresh aura, a sort of shot in the ass to a franchise that loves to embrace it’s misery.

The Raider Nation is alive with his enthusiasm. It’s infectious. On top of that, the savior has drafted the next best thing since peanut butter and jelly in JaMarcus Russell. Raider Greatness, as Big Al always says, is truly in it’s future.

Kid Kiff, the savior! And why not? The guy is born of football pedigree. His father coaches one of the best defenses in the league. He is the boy wonder who orchestrates the most explosive offense in college football. Kiff brings with him a 21st century offense, zone-blocking, quick passes, big plays, gadget plays, runs around in practice with the energy and passion and fury, that’s eerily similar to the great Jon Gruden.

Oh how the Raider Nation misses ol’ Chucky. He’s only 32 years-old, what an accomplishment, think of what he can do by the time he’s 36! And hey, Big Al is the pioneer, the messiah of identifying young talent, with the pinpointing of the likes of Madden, Gruden, Shanahan. This is perfect, it’s gonna be big, and the only ones who know it are those inside the Raider Nation.

But wait it gets better, in his first “Coaches Breakfast” with the national media, the guy’s a star. Peter King, John Clayton all say so, he’s gonna be great! Sean Payton who? Jon Gruden…that old guy?

In all this frenzy, the Raider Nation buries the wounds deep, hiding the scars of the facts that we ARE STILL the Raiders, the same Raiders that haven’t won a divisional game since a freakish snow game in 2004. A team that set a new standard for pathetic offense. A team that despite it’s ranking couldn’t stop anyone when it counted most, with the lone exception of picking off a bell rung Ben Roethlisburger and taking it back 100 yards.

A team that is still run by an owner who resembles Uncle Jr. Soprano with every passing year, more than Boss Tony. A team that was so desperate for a coach, they had to turn to a 31 year-old boy, who didn’t even coordinate the Trojan offense himself (remember, he shared the job with our first choice, Steve Sarkisian) a year after reconciling, then reneging on the biggest and ONLY mistake big Al’ ever made by re-hiring the great Art Shell.

The Raiders can’t block a pee-wee league all star team, they had to draft a 270 pound QB, because he might stand a chance against the wave of defenders crashing into him every play. This, in addition to the fact that we play in one of the oldest stadiums in the league, have a shaky lease with a sue-happy owner in a struggling city, and oh, there’s that product on the field too.

We waited so long that when looking for assistant coaches, we hired some more young guys. Oh sure, we kept Rob Ryan, and a couple of key members of his staff, surely pissing him off in the process, by not selecting him as the next logical choice as head coach, and letting a say, young innovative offensive coordinator, like Lane Kiffin just concentrate on the pathetic offense while he got his NFL wings.

No, better we hand over the whole enchilada to the young lad, and set him up to fail . . . that’ll be better. Need we touch on more? This my fellow Nation, stands for all that the great Raider Nation is unwilling to grasp, because surely, it’s too horrid to be true, so it is denied, obscured by the blinders of new found faith.

This bringing us to the pivotal stance on 2007. On the surface one could take either stance, and surely your stance is influenced by your own love or hate for the Raiders. The delusion is in the eye of the beholder. Lane Kiffin will prove everyone right or wrong, depending on whether we go 10-6 or 3-13, love or hate, respectively. More likely he will be right in between, because to a degree, the Raiders are not nearly as bad as they looked last year, but like it or not, the organization in the rubble of the 15-49 record since the dismal Super Bowl Implosion has a LONG way to go, too.

It’s not really a case of the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, but more so, the case of the reality. The reality is there are some good things happening. Kiffin by all accounts seems to have gotten to choose his staff, but the reality is, Al has always given SOME (note I say some) leash there anyway. And hell, what other choice does he have right now. Despite his nervous and robotic initial press conference the guy seems to actually have some personality.

Other good things are the addition of a potential franchise QB, the surely unselfish (sarcasm, in case you didn’t get the memo) renewal of Jerry Porter’s commitment, the retaining of the majority of the defense, and it’s key cogs, nice signings like Rhodes, Carlisle and Sands, the chemotherapy of Moss cancer, the simple fact that some retread like Wade Phillips or Jim Fassell wasn’t the guy sitting next to Corrado Soprano at the podium. These are steps, hell, leaps in the right direction, but the ladder out of the black hole is a tall one.

Many questions remain, none of which will we know the answers to until about mid-November. When will JaMarcus break into the line-up? Was last year’s defense really as good as we might think it was? The line, will it hold, maybe, but how could they not sign more people?

Easy, it’s called “curb appeal”. And the Raiders don’t have any because they’re in the gutter, at 2-14, 15-49, 0-12 (divisionally), nor did they have ridiculous salary cap money to throw around. Curb appeal can be accomplished when Kiffen does the seemingly impossible, and turns around the franchise that’s greatness has all but dwindled out.

So Kid Kiff, the Raider Nation, the football nation, ask and like a child at Xmas, wait . . .Are you the Savior? Or is the Black Hole STILL in denial?