I’m teasing you a little, with a gradual roll-out of my predictions in the six major Academy Award categories. An abbreviated version will run in the paper on Friday Feb. 22. Look for Best Supporting Actress chatter in this space tomorrow.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Given how many awards (BAFTA, Critic’s Choice, Golden Globe, SAG) Javier Bardem has already picked up for his dazzling work as the ultimate soulless assassin in “No Country for Old Men,” I wouldn’t place odds against him. I loved Bardem; he was perfection within perfection. “Michael Clayton’s” Tom Wilkinson, often lauded, but generally missing out on the actual laurels, is right up there for me as well.

Philip Seymour Hoffman won too recently for “Capote” to have much of a real shot for his hilarious turn in “Charlie Wilson’s War.” I found Casey Affleck fascinating for the first 10 minutes of “The Assassination of Jesse James” and tedious for the next 150.

But honestly, in the last few days I realized that if I had an Academy ballot in front of me, I’d check Hal Holbrook’s name for “Into the Wild.” He just turned 83, he’s never been nominated before and not only did he moved me tremendously, he genuinely stood out in a remarkably good ensemble cast. Plenty of people get nudged into the winner’s circle for sentimental reasons, why not give a classy veteran like Holbrook an honor he deserves?
Should Win: Hal Holbrook
Will Win: Javier Bardem