I’m teasing you a little, with a gradual roll-out of my predictions in the six major Academy Award categories. An abbreviated version will run in the paper on Friday Feb. 22. Look for Best Picture chatter in this space tomorrow.

BEST DIRECTOR
I feel sorry for Tony Gilroy. He didn’t just direct “Michael Clayton,” which is also up for Best Picture, he wrote it. And it was his first time at the helm. Major achievement. But looking over the list of director nominees, I tossed him out almost immediately, and I bet Academy voters did as well. Then I did the same with “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” Julian Schnabel (too much of an outsider, plus, alleged jerk) and “Juno” helmer Jason Reitman. Generally described as a “small” film, “Juno” has made more than any of the other best picture nominees, which does count for something (hello James Cameron).

But let’s face it, this year, it’s a prestige-off between the well-oiled machine of Ethan and Joel Coen and Paul Thomas Anderson, the brash 37-year-old who convinced Daniel Day Lewis to clamber into various baths of oil. Much as I love “There Will Be Blood,” and believe it will be a classic for years to come, Anderson is, in the end, responsible for the pacing problems in its last third. Meanwhile, I still can’t find a single thing the Coens did wrong with “No Country for Old Men.” And while Ethan Coen was nominated for directing “Fargo,” they’ve never won this category.
Should win: The Coens
Will win: The Coens