For a full, but abbreviated version of my predictions, see today’s paper on online at contracostatimes.com.

BEST PICTURE
It’s so strange; you look at “Michael Clayton” and think, in years gone by, this should be the front runner. It’s so classy, smart, slick and loaded with great acting, just the kind of film Hollywood should be proud of making. But 2007 was a great year for film, and I don’t think Tony Gilroy’s film can win.

“Juno” is charming and beloved, but I doubt it has “Shakespeare in Love” breakout potential (although, that’s what I said about “Crash,” so who knows?) “Atonement” is one of those movies that can’t quite stand up to mockery; you see a mash up of this and start to think, okay, it was lovely and moving, but I see their point.

In contrast, no matter how much anyone makes fun of what I consider the two front runners in this race, “There Will Be Blood” (“I drink your milkshake!”) and “No Country for Old Men,” I might laugh, but my respect and admiration for them remains unwavering. Both will be classics, but on the grounds that more people (and therefore, likely more Academy voters) seem to have problems with “Blood,” I give the Coen brothers’ flawless film the edge.
Should Win: “No Country for Old Men”
Will Win: No Country for Old Men.”

I’m teasing you a little, with a gradual roll-out of my predictions in the six major Academy Award categories. An abbreviated version will run in the paper on Friday Feb. 22. Look for Best Picture chatter in this space tomorrow.

BEST DIRECTOR
I feel sorry for Tony Gilroy. He didn’t just direct “Michael Clayton,” which is also up for Best Picture, he wrote it. And it was his first time at the helm. Major achievement. But looking over the list of director nominees, I tossed him out almost immediately, and I bet Academy voters did as well. Then I did the same with “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” Julian Schnabel (too much of an outsider, plus, alleged jerk) and “Juno” helmer Jason Reitman. Generally described as a “small” film, “Juno” has made more than any of the other best picture nominees, which does count for something (hello James Cameron).

But let’s face it, this year, it’s a prestige-off between the well-oiled machine of Ethan and Joel Coen and Paul Thomas Anderson, the brash 37-year-old who convinced Daniel Day Lewis to clamber into various baths of oil. Much as I love “There Will Be Blood,” and believe it will be a classic for years to come, Anderson is, in the end, responsible for the pacing problems in its last third. Meanwhile, I still can’t find a single thing the Coens did wrong with “No Country for Old Men.” And while Ethan Coen was nominated for directing “Fargo,” they’ve never won this category.
Should win: The Coens
Will win: The Coens

I’m teasing you a little, with a gradual roll-out of my predictions in the six major Academy Award categories. An abbreviated version will run in the paper on Friday Feb. 22. Look for Best Director chatter in this space tomorrow.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Sorry “Juno’s” Ellen Page, I think you are a treasure, but out of your league here, nominated under the We Love Her policy, not the No One is Better. “Elizabeth: The Golden Age’s” Cate Blanchett can’t possibly win for starring in such a lame sequel. Laura Linney was marvelous in the under seen “The Savages,” but I fear she’s going to be a mere runner up because her character was considered hard to like. Someday, I hope this mega-talent wins the Oscar she deserves. But not, I doubt, this year.

And while I fear the wrath of the World Cheekbone Assoc., I believe we tend to get all swoony over Julie Christie because she’s a) so gorgeous and b) so elusive. Still, she’s the front runner here, with SAG, Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins in her favor.

However, I can’t fathom giving the award to anyone but “La Vie en Rose’s” Marion Cotillard, who gave a performance so fiercely committed she reminded me of Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood.”
Should win: Marion Cotillard
Will win: Julie Christie

I’m teasing you a little, with a gradual roll-out of my predictions in the six major Academy Award categories. An abbreviated version will run in the paper on Friday Feb. 22. Look for Best Actress chatter in this space tomorrow.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
If you’ve read anything I’ve had to say on the topic of “There Will Be Blood” you already know exactly how I feel about this category. I’ll never forget Daniel Day-Lewis’ portrayal of oil prospector Daniel Plainview, megalomaniac, misanthropic and vibrating with life. Beyond compare. This is his fourth nomination, and would be his second win (he won 19 years ago for “My Left Foot”).

But if I could give out two Best Actor Oscars this year? DDL wouldn’t be sharing with Johnny Depp, who only managed to stay afloat in “Sweeney Todd,” or George Clooney, who was pitch perfect in “Michael Clayton,” but my hunch is, not all that tremendously challenged by the role. Nor Viggo Mortensen, even though, as far as I’m concerned, he can make an “Eastern Promises” sequel any time he wants.

No, that second Oscar would go to 3rd time nominee (and winner in ’93 for his supporting role in “The Fugitive”) Tommy Lee Jones, who gave the impression of measuring out his emotion by the thimbleful in “In the Valley of Elah,” but in truth, gave in buckets.
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

I’m teasing you a little, with a gradual roll-out of my predictions in the six major Academy Award categories. An abbreviated version will run in the paper on Friday Feb. 22. Look for Best Actor chatter in this space tomorrow.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Only Tilda Swinton gives me pause on my mad dash to throw roses at Cate Blanchett’s feet. She lifted Todd Haynes’ Bob Dylan-biopic “I’m Not There” into the realm of classic, and not just because she managed to look and sound and act so much like Dylan. It was the way she exposed his arrogance, childishness and boorish tendencies and then fixed the camera with a mischievous yet wise stare reminded us why we as a culture will never get over Dylan.

The fact that she’s also up for Best Actress for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age” could hurt her chances. And I’m notoriously bad at this category, which always seems to go to someone random. I haven’t even really considered Amy Ryan, who was an early favorite; she could still pull it out (although unlikely). Certainly if Academy voters went with Tilda Swinton, another elegant, accented, off-beat beauty who never seems to make a wrong move, I wouldn’t fault them. Just as long as they don’t pull a SAG and give it to Ruby Dee; neither she nor “American Gangster” were all that.
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Will Win: Cate Blanchett

I’m teasing you a little, with a gradual roll-out of my predictions in the six major Academy Award categories. An abbreviated version will run in the paper on Friday Feb. 22. Look for Best Supporting Actress chatter in this space tomorrow.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Given how many awards (BAFTA, Critic’s Choice, Golden Globe, SAG) Javier Bardem has already picked up for his dazzling work as the ultimate soulless assassin in “No Country for Old Men,” I wouldn’t place odds against him. I loved Bardem; he was perfection within perfection. “Michael Clayton’s” Tom Wilkinson, often lauded, but generally missing out on the actual laurels, is right up there for me as well.

Philip Seymour Hoffman won too recently for “Capote” to have much of a real shot for his hilarious turn in “Charlie Wilson’s War.” I found Casey Affleck fascinating for the first 10 minutes of “The Assassination of Jesse James” and tedious for the next 150.

But honestly, in the last few days I realized that if I had an Academy ballot in front of me, I’d check Hal Holbrook’s name for “Into the Wild.” He just turned 83, he’s never been nominated before and not only did he moved me tremendously, he genuinely stood out in a remarkably good ensemble cast. Plenty of people get nudged into the winner’s circle for sentimental reasons, why not give a classy veteran like Holbrook an honor he deserves?
Should Win: Hal Holbrook
Will Win: Javier Bardem

You know how every year the Oscars roll around and there’s this entire section of nominees you know nothing about? That’s right, the Live-Action Shorts and the Animated Shorts awards, the time when you usually go bury your head in the freezer for that possibly hidden pint of ice cream. It’s hard to be vested in a bunch of movies you’ve never seen.

It doesn’t have to be that way. Magnolia Pictures and Shorts International have put together a full program of the 2007 Academy Award nominees in both Short Films categories, to be screened theatrically, via digital projection no less, in 50 U.S. cities (meaning there’s hope for the flyover states then) beginning February 15, including several local theaters.
And here’s what you’ll be seeing, descriptions courtesy of Magnolia and Shorts International.
Live Action Shorts (total running time for the program is 137 minutes)
AT NIGHT; Denmark, Nominees: Christian E. Christiansen & Louise Vesth. Three young women share their problems while spending the holidays in a hospital cancer ward.
IL SUPPLENTE (THE SUBSTITUTE); Italy, Nominee: Andrea Jublin. The arrival of an unusual newcomer galvanizes the students in a high school classroom.
LE MOZART DES PICKPOCKETS (THE MOZART OF PICKPOCKETS); France, Nominee: Philippe Pollet-Villard. A pair of unlucky thieves find their fortunes have changed when they take in a deaf homeless boy.
TANGHI ARGENTINI; Belgium, Nominees: Guido Thys and Anja Daelemans. A man who must learn to dance the tango in two weeks asks an office colleague for help.
THE TONTO WOMAN; United Kingdom, Nominees: Daniel Barber and Matthew Brown. A cattle rustler meets a woman who is living in isolation after being held prisoner for eleven years by the Mojave Indians.

Animated Shorts (total running time for program is 90 minutes)
I MET THE WALRUS; Canada, Nominee: Josh Raskin. In 1969, 14-year-old Jerry Levitan snuck into John Lennon’s hotel room with his tape recorder and persuaded him to do an interview.
MADAME TUTLI-PUTLI; Canada, Nominees: Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski. A timid woman boards a mysterious night train and has a series of frightening experiences.
MEME LES PIGEONS VONT AU PARADIS (EVEN PIGEONS GO TO HEAVEN); France, Nominees: Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse. A priest tries to sell an old man a machine that he promises will transport him to heaven.
MY LOVE (MOYA LYUBOV); Russia, Nominee: Alexander Petrov. In 19th Century Russia, a teenage boy in search of love is drawn to two very different women. (This makes the fourth nomination for Petrov, was up for the Oscar in 1989 for THE COW, in 1997 for THE MERMAID and won in 1999, for his animated short THE OLD MAN AND THE SEA.)
PETER & THE WOLF; United Kingdom & Poland, Nominees: Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman. A young boy and his animal friends face a hungry wolf in Prokofiev’s classic musical piece.
Locally at: Landmark’s Embarcadero Center Cinema in San Francisco Francisco (415) 267-4893 and Shattuck Cinemas in Berkeley (510) 464-5980 and the Smith Rafael Film Center in San Rafael. For those to the North and South, also at the Nickelodeon Theatres in Santa Cruz and Rialto Cinemas Lakeside in Santa Rosa. Check here for showtimes at Bay Area theaters and here for a full list of theaters across the country that will be playing the program.

Sunday Night’s SAG awards (click for full results) were a nice shot in the arm for those of us who crave the award shows and all their little tidbits of glamour and gossip. Brad and Angelina made out at the table after a joyful parade down the red carpet, Angie in a dress that suggested she’s either pregnant or wants to toy with us completely (come one, that was a tent worthy of J. Lo at 5 months). Meanwhile Tom Cruise looked so subdued handing out the last award of the night that you’d think everyone in America had been ridiculing his Scientology video for the last week (if you haven’t seen it yet, check out his Jerry Maguire co-star Jerry O’Connell’s parody here).

The winners were an interesting group, not necessarily in line with what we would have expected coming off the Golden Globes, but maybe more representative of the affection — and respect — guild members feel for their colleagues. And they really do honor each other; where else would a veteran like Charles Durning get his due with a tribute that went on for more than 4 minutes (and was very touching, by the way)? That’s my theory as to why someone like American Gangster’s Ruby Dee walked away with a supporting actress award that should have been Cate Blanchett’s. And Away From Her’s Julie Christie, who has been around long enough to feel comfortable showing up in a snappy suit instead of some big poofy gown, winning a best actress award that I personally would have given to Marion Cotillard. But Christie did a lovely job playing an Alzheimer’s patient in Sarah Polley’s film and I loved her crack as she wrapped up her thank yous Sunday night: “If I’ve forgotten anybody, well, it’s just that I’m still in character.”

Of course, if my theory were really solid, Hal Holbrook would have won for Into the Wild instead of No Country for Old Men’s Javier Bardem. I can’t complain though, since Bardem is my choice for the Academy Award. And I was thrilled that the male performance I feel most excited about this year, that of Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood, was recognized by the guild. The actor is such a class act that he dedicated his award to Heath Ledger, an actor I think he’s said he never met, but who he said gave him a sense of “regeneration” when he watched him perform. “In Brokeback Mountain of course, he was unique, he was perfect,” he said. It was a lovely act of generosity, and once again, I found myself so saddened over the loss of Ledger.

The Oscar race is officially on and it’s going to be almost as hard to predict as the presidential race. There are two front runners, the gorgeously eccentric There Will Be Blood and the wickedly intelligent No Country For Old Men, both of which scored eight nominations early Tuesday morning, including that vital combination of nods for best picture and best director.

But nipping right at their heels are two other best picture nominees with seven nominations each, Atonement and Michael Clayton. And rounding out the best picture category is Juno, certainly the most crowd-pleasing picture of the year, which nabbed four nominations, including one for its young star, Ellen Page; another for director, Jason Reitman; and one for Diablo Cody, the former stripper who penned the wry, wistful tale of a pregnant high school student.

Because we don’t even know if there will be an Oscar ceremony this year – although on Tuesday the writers were reportedly talking to various media corporation bigwigs, so there is hope – we thought we’d have some fun and hand out our own awards to some of the nominees.

The Fresh Face: Oscar’s rule is, there has to be a new girl on the block nominated for the best actress, preferably pretty. This year Juno’s Ellen Page, 20, a native of Canada, with some indie experience (Hard Candy) and a supporting role in the third X-Men, is It.

The We’re Happy You’re Not Dead: Nothing appeals more to Hollywood than an actor or actress who emerges from a seeming retirement to play some vital supporting role in a major movie. This year it’s two first time nominees, Ruby Dee (83), who played Denzel Washington’s mother in American Gangster and Hal Holbrook (82), who was so touching in Into the Wild. All Dee (A Raisin in the Sun) had to do was slap mega-star Washington to nab her nod.

The Grand Intimidators: There Will Be Blood’s Daniel Day Lewis and Paul Thomas Anderson: Talents so audacious and huge that Academy members must have been scared not to vote for them.

The Doyenne: Aging well is essential to Hollywood’s self-image. A great, or even good, actress who hangs onto her beauty and her figure is always welcome at an Oscar ceremony (think Helen Mirren). This year the award for enduring elegance goes to best actress nominee Julie Christie, who played an Alzheimer’s patient finding new love while the old one looked on helplessly in Away From Her.

The Signs of Progress: No women were nominated in the best director category, which is typical, but directors Tamara Jenkins and Sarah Polley did get nods in the screening writing categories, Jenkins for her original work in The Savages and Polley for her adaptation work in Away From Her. Juno’s Diablo Cody and Nancy Oliver (“Lars and the Real Girl” were also nominated in the original screenplay category.

The Due Diligents: What’s not to love about the hardworking Michael Clayton crew? Up until now, director Tony Gilroy made his living as a screenwriter. But in 2007 he made his directorial debut with this legal thriller, and he did it in the quietest, most professional way possible. Kind of like his star George Clooney and supporting players, Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson. They’re all up for Oscars, and richly deserved.

The Precocious Child: Do Academy members hunch over their nomination ballots saying: “Kids, kids, any good kids this years? What have the Fannings been up to?” The truth is, kids are validating. They speak to the future, as least until they’re 16. So they get nominated. This year’s choice is Atonement’s Saoirse Ronan, who was born in – can you stand it? – 1994.

There is Justice (or at Least a Good Publicist): That screener of In the Valley of Elah made it into enough Academy hands to snag Tommy Lee Jones a much deserved best actor nomination. Hot Diggity.

Only in Hollywood: Could you see a vibrant, powerful film like La Vie en Rose, the Edith Piaf bio-pic, up against a miserable, distasteful comedy like Norbit for an award. Here’s hoping the fat suit doesn’t win out for best makeup.

The Thank You For Making Us Laugh: There’s a mini-trend in Hollywood to recognize comedy. But it has to be a story that is simultaneously poignant, like Little Miss Sunshine. This year’s recipient is Juno’s Jason Reitman, who got a surprise nod for best director to go with that best picture nod. Reitman, whose last film was the sparkling Thank You For Smoking, is a veritable child at only 30. But he might have been helped on his road to recognition by his connections. Like previous best director nominee, Sofia Coppola, he’s Hollywood royalty; his dad is Ivan Reitman of “Ghostbusters” fame.)

The You Can Do No Wrong (Although Sometimes You Do): Sweeney Todd’s Johnny Depp and Elizabeth: The Golden Age’s Cate Blanchett, were both nominated in the best actor/actress category. These two are so cherished, they get nominated even when their movies don’t measure up.

The Continuing Conundrum: It happened again. For various reasons having to do with eligibility and as far as we can tell, the complete weirdness of the nomination process, not one of the foreign language films we loved or admired in 2007 made the Oscar cut. Left out were Spain’s The Orphanage and Romania’s 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 3 Days, as well as best director nominee Julian Schnabel’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which is in French but made by an American. So what was nominated? Five films we haven’t seen.

The They Have Each Other and That Ought to be Enough: Both halves of Brangelina did the finest work of their careers in 2007, but Brad Pitt in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart were shut out by the Academy. If we were their peers, we’d probably be jealous too. The beauty is, Brangelina could probably take or leave the Oscars. They’ll probably be either pregnant by Feb. 24 or adopting again.

Hi there,

I’m working on a story for tomorrow’s paper on the Oscar nominations, that will doubtless be posted this afternoon here as well, but in the meantime, can I just say:

1. There are Signs of Progress in Hollywood. Neither of the women who did major directing work this year, Sarah Polley with Away From Her and Tamara Jenkins with The Savages, got recognized in the director category, which is traditionally all boys, all the time. But they did both get nods in the screenplay categories, Polley for her adaptation of an Alice Munro short story, and Jenkins for her original screenplay. And the original screenplay nominees include 3 women out of 5 spots (Diablo Cody for Juno and Nancy Oliver for Lars and the Real Girl. That’s impressive. Of course, I can’t decide whether this is actually sort of patronizing — “You ladies do such a nice job of writing! And cooking!” or something more encouraging.

2. There are Also Signs of Good Taste. Much as I adore There Will Be Blood, I know it’s a challenging picture. I didn’t expect to see it up there with the best picture nominees, and I am delighted about that. And also so pleasantly surprised by Paul Thomas Anderson making it into the best director nominees. There Will Be Blood’s eight nominations (it’s tied for front runner with another seriously fabulous but complex film, No Country For Old Men) also makes up for the complete neglect of a film I just couldn’t get out of my head in 2007, David Fincher’s Zodiac.

3. It pays to be a kid or a senior citizen in Tinseltown, although only in Oscar season. The Academy loves them. Saoirse Ronan was very fine in Atonement, but this just feels like another of those nominations that stems from Hollywood’s perpetual amazement that children can actually act. Talk about a viewpoint of arrogance; if acting is a natural gift, why shouldn’t you be just as likely to have it at a young age as you would at 30? And then on the flip side, there’s the classic Hollywood reaction to veterans, which I like to think of as the Gloria Stuart approach. Both Into the Wild’s Hal Holbrook and American Gangster’s Ruby Dee were nominated for their supporting work as well. Now Holbrook was lovely, but all I remember about Dee’s performance is that she smacked Denzel Washington across the face. I think her nomination was a case of Wow, We Thought You Were Dead (and we’re glad you’re not.)

Okay, I’ve got writing to do for the paper. Look for that story later and when I clear the decks a bit, I’ll return to this space to spank myself for all my bad predictions (and pat myself on the back for the ones I got right in Sunday’s paper, including 5 out of 5 in the Best Supporting Actor category.)