I’m only suggesting that folks involved simply get good data as a starting place upon which to make a judgement. I am *indeed* surprised if you are unfamilar with “scientific method” – my apology if my statment called into question your personal character.

But, if I understand you correctly, you are suggesting that it is possible that the character of the people involved in reporting traffic data may be so dubious that they might “play” with those numbers – so you use this that possible character flaw as a rationalization to make the pursuit of hard data a waste of time.

Of course, if you are correct in that assumption, those same folks would be willing to “play” with their opinions for the sake of expediancy and all of this is for not.

I see your point of view.

Thanks.

Why get personal?

Data gathering and analysis are expensive and take time, all for a questionable product. I’m reminded of the recent scandal in NYC, where officers under pressure to improve crime statistics supposedly played with numbers to give the appearance of crime reductions.

Then I look at Fremont USD, which has implemented massive amounts of data gathering in elementary school, essentially turning them into state test prep centers. Yep, it’s like those crazy teachers warned; school is now about teaching to the test, and little more.

What you see as the most basic essentials of the analytical process, I call the flaws of data-driven management. Often the answer is obvious for any professional to see.

And while I greatly dislike red-light cameras, I’m definitely more aware and careful around them, which likely most people are. That reduces deadly accidents, their primary purpose.

Well, Bbox, just like Fremont Lifer, you are an absolute hypocrite.

Ummm, no – I wouldn’t – but I’m a god-fearing individual who pays taxes on time and has been gainfully employed since I was in Junior High School. I don’t profess (unlike Jon) to know what the . . . . heck . . . . . . goes on in other peoples minds. Much more importantly I am also aware that there is well documented UNINTENDED responses to just about any action – - – see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_effect
for further clarification on this point.

Jon Simon says – “Do you make every or even many decisions based upon statistical analysis, or are experience and observation usually good enough? Do statistics usually tell enough of the story to make a wise decision? I’ve seen far too many bad educational decisions made upon statistical evidence.”

As a rational individual, I try to gather any information I can that is relevant and meaningful with which to substantiate my personal opinions, beliefs, tribal lore or other anecdotal nonsense. . . . . Jon is correct that some decisions cannot wait for data or there is no reliable data available, but that’s not the case in this situation as evidenced by Frank’s lengthy reference to multiple influencing datums. . . .

And Jon, we’re talking about folks who make their living in this field , the word “professional” comes to mind here – - – and folks who are “professionals” use information.

I fully concede that interpretation of the data may be tempered with experience for which I hold high regard – - – but an absence of proper data is, a problem.

Jon – this cannot be a debate about whether or not data is important – unless you want to argue with the guy that “works with the Fremont Automated Red Light Program.” – - – - In his own defense of the red light cameras Mr. Simon appears to be enamoured with, Mr. Noey has made considerable reference to a variety of data.

THE POINT IS – *WHICH* data is significant enough to substantiate effectiveness of this mechanism AND why aren’t our leaders including THAT data in their assessments of this system ?

P.S. – I find it quite startling that someone involved in our educational system is seemingly incapable of grasping these most basic essentials of the analytical process.

Do you make every or even many decisions based upon statistical analysis, or are experience and observation usually good enough? Do statistics usually tell enough of the story to make a wise decision? I’ve seen far too many bad educational decisions made upon statistical evidence.

For what it’s worth, I haven’t noticed any drop in traffic around town. Freeway traffic is easier, though. Oh, and I do hate traffic cameras of all kinds, especially speed cameras.

Frank Noey at least gives a partial nod to the need for some other data. Curiously he supplies myriad random facts unrelated to that which we REALLY need to understand the situation. For whatever reasons – Steckler only speaks to the number of collisions and violations and completely avoids the other half of the calculation.

The red-light-camera-101 question is “How many collisions and violations PER “X” number of vehicles USING THAT INTERSECTION occur ?” If the number of vehicles USING the intersection has fallen by half because of a bad economy and fewer people traveling, then to declare that the red-light cameras are working because collisions are down (only) 10% would be a seriously flawed conclusion. Moving on to a second semester of traffic studies, we’d really want to understand traffic through these intersections BUT also understand other routes which MAY be being used, in an attempt to avoid camera-supervised intersections – but this latter point gets pretty complicated.

The numbers of violations and collisions is a result – - – of enforcement – - – - and of TRAFFIC. Frank Noey knows that and suggests the population of Fremont be used as one indicator . . . . but, I speculate he also knows that this is only a proxy for the variable that (I also speculate) is actually WAY WAY reduced from what it has been e.g., – the number of vehicles moving through ANY intersection in Fremont is most likely WAY down from what it was a year or two or three ago – - – - owing to a tanked economy; fewer commute and business-related trips by residents AND by commuters and delivery vehicles . . . .

So, if the denominator is down and if the numerator is down but, perhaps by a lesser percentage – - then it is quite concievable that, as a percentage, collisions and red light violations have actually INCREASED – but, we’ll never know what is or is not occurring in the absence of COMPLETE data.

Maybe it’s working – maybe it’s not – who knows ?