23

Not Gonna Happen

I came to the realization this morning, sitting in the Salt Lake City airport, that this series is over. I know you don’t want to hear that, but I can’t see how it’s not.
OK, assuming the Jazz would win a Game 7m the Warriors would have to win in Game 6. That means they have to win four straight. Not only would they have to sweep at home, but they would have to win Game 5 in Utah and clinch Game 6 at home.
Seriously, do you see that happening?

Marcus Thompson

  • Michael

    Over? Seriously? They lost two close games on the road, one of which they had all but sewn up. It happens. But if they can put themselves in that position in Utah two more times, I’ve got to think they win one.

    As for having to win Game 5 because they won’t win game 7, that’s crazy. Utah didn’t manage to win any of the first three in Houston and they still came out OK.

    If the Warriors win the next two at home (which I think is more likely than not), things are going to look a lot different next week.

  • Tay

    Marc are you serious? I know things look grim now. But lets keep in mind that Utah is not a great Road team and the Warriors are a great home team. All the Warriors have to do is win one game in Utah. That is very possible. Lets not give up just yet.

  • Marcus Thompson

    You’re probably right, but that is far more unlikely. You don’t waste two chances at victory on the road and get rewarded by a third chance. That just doesn’t happen.
    I agree, if it gets to Game 7, the Jazz could freeze up. But the tenor of this series is different. This is not like Dallas, where the Warriors had the mental advantage. They don’t KNOW they can beat the Jazz like they KNEW they could be Dallas.

  • Andrew Rosenblum

    The reason that game 2 hurts is because they could have won if Pietrus hits his free throws and Baron hits his second free throw. That and the rebounding are of course the Ws Achilles heel.

    But Marcus, I think you’re quitting on them too easily. This team is nothing if not up and down. I really do think they’ll likely win both the next two games at Oracle. If Utah can’t crush the Warriors at home, I can’t see them coming close to hanging with them in Oakland.

    I think it’s all about game 5.

  • Jason

    I hate to say it but you’re right Marcus. It’ll go 7 games and I think the W’s will win handily at home. But, Davis takes too much of a beating in Utah and the things you need to do to win close games on the road are our biggest weaknesses (rebounding, free throws).

    Don’t be surprised if Kirilenko fouls out of every game in Oakland.

    Monta has the next to games to snap out of it and use the crowd to do so. Otherwise he’s done for the series.

    Jackson needs to pump fake every time and jump into Kirilenko. If it can work for Corey Magette it can work for Jax.

    Whatever Sloan does to the refs that makes them swallow their whistles for all but the most blatant fouls, it can’t be legal. Has anyone checked to make sure Steve Javie’s family isn’t being held hostage?

  • ADAM

    Tay! Are you kidding me?? First of all the Jazz had one of the best road records in the NBA this year. And did you not watch game 7 against the Rockets?? Obviously you didn’t if you think the Jazz are not a great road team. Winning a game 7 on the road is harder than to win a game 3 or 4 at the Oracle. Also just for good measure the Jazz also had a better home record than the W’s. Needless to say I agree with Marcus on this one. If the W’s were gonna have any chance in this series they would have needed the win last night. They didn’t get it done. The series won’t be a sweep but none the less it is over!

  • jim

    Marcus,

    I see where you’re coming from. But I think the Ws are too unpredictable and emotional to write off. The Jazz did not have a dominant game against us. So if the Warriors start winning at home I think they could carry a huge energy into Utah and steal a game. However, they can’t be trusted to do this (freethrows last night!), so your position is understandable. BTW, I see Charley Rosen has a new wrap for us: a group of superb individuals but not a team!

  • Andrew Rosenblum

    Just wanted to correct a few of Adam’s misleading statements.

    1) The Jazz were tied with Cleveland for the 7th-best road record in the NBA this year. At 20-21, they were pretty good, but hardly a “great road team.” San Antonio, Phoenix, Detroit, and Dallas had genuinely great road records, unsurprising because they’re all in the top tier of the league. Taking 1 out of 4 road games against an offensively-challenged Rockets team was just enough to get the job done, but does not make the Jazz a “great road team.”

    2) The Warriors had an admittedly dismal road record, but you’re fooling yourself if you think the pre-March 5 Warriors are the same as the post-. They were 7-4 after that date, and won 5 out of their last 6 road games. Why? Because their backs were against the wall.

    So you chumpy Utah provincials can pat yourselves on the back and talk about how God supposedly wanted Derek Fisher to come back and make the shot. (Isn’t there something in Leviticus about how much God hates the Warriors? Recent history would suggest that there is). And of course I’m as grateful as anyone that Fisher’s daughter’s surgery apparently went well and that he’s able to compete again.

    But with that cocky, know-nothing attitude, I think you’re in for a surprise when the Dubs blow out the Jazz in Oakland.

  • ADAM

    What is so misleading about what I said?

    The 7th best road record in the NBA is definately one of the better road records, at least better than 75% of the NBA teams. Not to mention that it was done in the western conference. Only Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio had better conference records than the Jazz. And don’t down play the game 7 win at Houston. If you don’t think that it takes a good road team to win a game 7 on the road then you are insane! Take a look at their road wins this year: 2 at Phoenix, 1 at Dallas, 2 at Denver, 2 at Houston, 1 at Detroit, 1 at Toronto, 1 at Chicago. Those were just the playoff teams. They were 16-10 overall against the Western conf teams that made the playoffs. The Jazz had the best road record against teams that made the playoffs this year. Better than Dallas, Phoenix or San Antonio. If you narrow that stat down to just the top 5 Western conference teams (excluding the Jazz) they had a 6-3 road record. There is more truth behind my statement than you probably originally thought when you look into the numbers a little bit. So yes the Jazz are a great road team! Hopefully we can win our 2 back here at the Oracle, its just gonna be harder than most people think. Obviously the W’s aren’t underestimating the Jazz’s road potential.

  • Warrior Faithful

    i ALWAYS believed and i STILL believe!!!!

  • dnnt believe

    are those numbers true, adam? that’s scary. from what they just showed in slc, my 2 cent is that both teams have a 50-50 chance to win any of the remaining 5 games. anyone thinks that gs will win 4 out of the 5 is just day-dream. that’s why marcus believed it’s over. right? logic.

  • gswbandwagon

    OVER??? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? NO! And it ain’t over now! Kirilenko is a dead man! Williams…dead! Boozer…dead! Okur…dead!

    It took a team that was 9 under .500 a 16-5 finish against the toughest schedule in the league to make the playoffs. It took bouncing back from having our best players tossed and our hearts ripped out to take out the 6th best regular season team of all time. This team is nothing if not resilient.

    We believed playoff.

    We believed upset.

    We believe conference final.

  • gswbandwagon

    The only relevant road record for Utah is 0-2. That’s their record at Oracle this year. The Warriors won those by an average of nearly 20 a game. Dallas had a fantastic record this year and it didn’t mean squat b/c it was against other teams. Utah’s wins in Toronto and Chicago and etc are totally irrelevant.

    Oh, and I hope Fisher is back for the rest of the series. And I mean fully back. We need him to be in full Dreck Fisher form, allowing anyone with a pulse to drive right by him and going into 10 minute spurts where he decides he needs to play like Kobe Bryant offensively. We need the guy whose best defensive asset is the flop. If he’s just going to be a passive catch and shoot guy, that’ll hurt the Warriors.

  • itsagreattimeout

    C’mon Marcus. You’ve been like this all year. You’re always the first to throw in the towell. When will you believe?? If anything, these last 2 games showed me the Warriors have the potential to beat the Jazz in Utah. And we all know they won’t lose in Oakland. Andrew is right- it’s all about game 5.

  • yep

    Yep- like I said, man; Utah in 5.

  • Alex

    My god, when did the Germans bomb Pearl Harbor!?!

    OT; Everything is still possible. Giving up is way to early!

  • EJ

    Game 3 forecast:

    As Johnny “Drama” Chase would say…..”VICTORY!!!”

  • commish

    Ask me after about 9 tonight. Seriously, it is unlikely but not impossible. Impossible was us making the playoffs in February.

  • Tay

    The Jazz havnt had any road team like they are going to face 2nite.

    The Warriors need a convincing win to put their mark back on the playoffs. Prediction: W’s by 23.

    I agree the best defense against Fish is to make him drive. He is not nearly as effective.

    The Warriors will get the calls at Home.

  • Andrew Rosenblum

    Hey Marcus,

    Remember when you thought the season was over after Baron had the surgery? Personally, I thought it was over after they were spanked by Sasha Pavlovic and a Le-Bron-less Cavaliers squad.

    But they proved us wrong, and I’ll bet this squad, for all of its shortcomings, certainly hasn’t given up. The Jazz just aren’t that good.

    So “Yep,” I’ll see your Jazz in 5, and raise you a Warriors in 6. Believe it!

  • Aussie Warrior

    Still think it’s over Marcus??? Win Game 4 and suddenly we’re talking about the Warriors having all the momentum. The pressure shifts to Utah, knowing a loss in Game 5 could spell the end of their season. Of course we have to win Game 4, but you’ve got to like our chances after today’s result. It’s game on!

  • Tim Dickinson

    The Warriors were dominant tonight. And it had everything to do with the return of Baron’s dribble penetration. He blew by every defender they threw on him like he did through most of the Dallas series. And it set everything else up — the easy threes in particular. Combine that with Andris’ best game of the playoffs, limiting the Jazz’s second chances, and you’ve got a blowout.

    Given how close the warriors played the Jazz in Utah, you had to figure they’d blow things open at home. Tonight’s game really does leave me feeling like the W’s are the better team. If they can continue take care of business at home they’ll get two more chances to steal one in Utah.

    If Baron’s leg holds up, I say they swipe it in seven.

  • Tim Dickinson

    Marcus,

    do you think Nellie should make a few minutes for powell off the bench.

    He looked good in garbage time, tracking down a loose ball or two.

    Seems like he might be good for some hard fouls on boozer and harpring, a few offensive rebounds, and a couple jumpshots on open looks.