=)

]]>Using the following percentages:

Chance of LeBron making the layup = 80%

Chance of Marshall making the shot = 50%

Chance of the Pistons making the last shot with 5 seconds left = 15%

Chance of Cavs winning in OT = 40%

and the following algorithms

Lebron Passes:

If Marshall makes the shot then

If The Pistons make the last shot then

Pistons Win

Else

Cavs Win

End if

Else

Pistons win

End If

LeBron takes the layup

If LeBron makes the layup then

If The Pistons Make the Last shot then

Pistons Win

Else

If The Cavs Win in OT then

Cavs win

Else

Pistons win

End if

End if

Else

Pistons Win

End if

I ran each one through 1 million times and got the following results:

LeBron passes

Pistons win 575034 times

Cavs win 424967 times

LeBron takes the layup:

Pistons win 728383 times

Cavs win 271618 times

Now, I don’t know if the percentages are accurate. Maybe Donyell’s shot should be 45%, or maybe LeBron has a 90% chance of making the layup. But I think the math is right.

Or maybe I am a salesman!

]]>I figure Marshall has maybe a 50% chance of making that wide open shot. The Pistons get the ball back, with a few seconds left so give them say 15% chance of making a shot. That leaves 42.5% chance to win, 57.5% chance to lose.

For Lebron, I’ll give him 80% chance that he makes the layup.

The Pistons would get the ball back, so give them the same 15% chance to score.

If they don’t make the shot and it goes to OT, then you would think that the Pistons would have the advantage because they’re playing at home. So say 60% chance of winning OT for the Pistons.

So if Lebron takes the layup, that’s 27% chance of winning, 73% chance of losing.

If you don’t agree with the percentages, then change them as you see fit, but you should still use the same method, or something similar to figure out if it was a good decision or not.

]]>So it makes you wonder if they know somethings we don’t.

]]>i dont fault lebron for passing the last shot. but you have to be more of a force in the 4th than he has been, considering the cavs is his team. even if you have to force the issue, take it to the hole and go to the foul line.

i just dont think he has the killer instinct that jordan and kobe have. maybe he’s still young. i think that’s why he’s getting dogged.

]]>I couldn’t agree more. If that shot did fall people would be praising what a genious Lebron is. He sees the court much like a Steve Nash does and should be credited for having confidence is his teammates. With that said I’d like to see Lebron show a little more agressiveness early on in Game 2 and get to the stripe so he can set the tone for the game. The Cav’s should of stolen game 1 from a championship team and it’s unfair to blame Lebron for the loss.

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