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Blog Question

“What is up with teams not locking up their young players? Warriors didn’t lock up Biedrins. And players like Okafor, Ben Gordan, Deng, and Iguodala. Are teams that concerned about the salary cap these days? Or are these players just not worth the money their draft slot warrants them? Or are the agents asking too much?
With the w’s having the cap flexibility and the number the free agents, do you see them going after Deng and Iguodala?” – manhattanproj

The trend is to wait it out. Because of restricted free agency, teams have learned not to bid against themselves and end up paying more.
For instance, the Warriors didn’t extend Andris Biedrins. So, he’ll be a restricted free agent. Now, the current market will be determined how much he’s worth, not past markets, not his agent, not Biedrins.
Biedrins’ barometer was Chris Kaman and Tyson Chandler’s contract. If the Warriors paid him that kind of money before Biedrins hit the market, how would they know that’s what he’s worth? What if the market for big men isn’t so high next year, and they can get him for $40 million? They’ll save $10-15 million. If he is indeed worth $50 to $55 million, they won’t lose anything because restricted free agency allows them to match whatever. It’s a win-win situation for the team.
The only risk is that he’ll be worth more than they could’ve signed him for this year. If Biedrins has an all-star season, or some other team falls in love and makes some crazy offer, he may command $60 to $65 million, and the Warriors would have lost some $10 million more by not signing him last year. But that’s a risk more teams are willing to take because the fact is, only two or three teams each off season have enough cap room to sign players to a big contract. How many teams will have the cap room to pay Andris $11 million next year? Not very many, and that helps the Warriors. If someone does offer that much, the Warriors can match. If you just play the percentages, it is overwhelmingly a smarter move to wait and let players become restricted free agents.

Marcus Thompson

  • JustPuked

    Marcus, That’s a great answer for our restricted free agents but what about our unrestricted free agents? Plus there seems to be some confusion on some of the other boards. According to Real GM Ellis and Biedrins, are restricted free agents next summer and Pietrus, Barnes are unrestricted free agents.

    Is O’Bryant going to be restricted or unrestricted. If Kelenna and Baron opt out, are they both also unrestricted? Potentially it looks like O’Bryant, Pietrus, Barnes, Kelenna, and Baron Davis could ALL be free agents next year. That’s a ton of flexibility, yes, but How do Rowell/Mullin hold on to the guys they want, while juggling that many contract negotiations at the same time?

    Even if they let Ellis and Biedrins hit the market and set their own value, how do they keep Baron, go after their top choice in the free agent market and keep other teams from poaching say Barnes and Kelenna? It just seems like too much expect the Warriors are going to be able to keep everyone they want, without getting burned at least once or twice.

  • JustPuked

    Marcus, That’s a great answer for our restricted free agents but what about our unrestricted free agents? Plus there seems to be some confusion on some of the other boards. According to Real GM Ellis and Biedrins, are restricted free agents next summer and Pietrus, Barnes are unrestricted free agents.

    Is O’Bryant going to be restricted or unrestricted. If Kelenna and Baron opt out, are they both also unrestricted? Potentially it looks like O’Bryant, Pietrus, Barnes, Kelenna, and Baron Davis could ALL be free agents next year. That’s a ton of flexibility, yes, but How do Rowell/Mullin hold on to the guys they want, while juggling that many contract negotiations at the same time?

    Even if they let Ellis and Biedrins hit the market and set their own value, how do they keep Baron, go after their top choice in the free agent market and keep other teams from poaching say Barnes and Kelenna? It just seems like too much expect the Warriors are going to be able to keep everyone they want, without getting burned at least once or twice.

  • manhattanproj

    well if baron does walk, grab gilbert arenas since he’s a free agent as well. more durable, younger. but his market is going to be wider b/c he doesnt have the injury history of bd.