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One More Year of Monta at a Bargain?

My colleague Tim Kawakami brought up an interesting idea to me, and the result could be the Warriors getting Monta for another year at a bargain. I know everyone, including myself, were resigned to the fact that the Warriors would lock Monta up to a phat deal this coming offseason. But this way might be best for the
Check this out, if I’m Monta Ellis, I would accept the qualifying offer he’s going to get after this season ends. The reason? If he does, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent the following season.
Hitting the market as a restricted free agent is hardly as promising as hitting the market as an unrestricted free agent. He likely won’t get many offers because a) not that many teams will have cap space; b) they know it’s a good chance the Warriors will match unless the offer is way too high; c) Gilbert Arenas, Luol Deng, Baron Davis and Andre Iguodala will be hogging most of the offers.
Provided he explodes this season and becomes an MVP candidate or something, the likelihood is that Monta will get some three-year, $15-20 million offer late in August or something. The market will probably be much better the following year, when the Warriors don’t have the ability to match. It’s risky from Monta’s end, but restricted free agents rarely get their real market value because it’s designed to aid their current team.
The risk for the Warriors is that Monta could walk after the 2007-08 season. Of course, the Warriors will still have Larry Bird rights, so they can sign him to whatever, which few teams will be able to do.
But the reward is that they’d have Monta for about $1.8 million next year (the qualify offer must be 125 percent of the previous salary, or the league minimum plus $175,000). This means the Warriors would be able to go after a free agent, such as Luol Deng, and – if they want – sign Monta the following year. That way, they’d be using their cap space on new players and not their own, which they did three years ago when they spent all their cap money on Foyle, Murphy and Richardson.
This would work out better for the Warriors and for Monta, in the long run. The Warriors would get the chance to keep their young stud while adding much-needed outside help. Monta would get the long-term, big money deal he wants.

Marcus Thompson

  • Leary

    Marcus

    Do you know why Earl Boykins is not playing in the NBA. He was my favorite player.

    I look forward to reading your Blog everyday.

    Thanks
    Kinglear

  • Leary

    Marcus

    Earl Boykins is my favorite player. Do you know why he isn’t playing in the NBA?

    I look forward to reading your blog everyday.

    Thanks
    Kinglear

  • shokthegreat

    what about okeafor he dosent seem to be to happy with the bobcats offer what’s the chances of landing him next year?

  • JustPuked

    Don’t forget Shawn Marion has an early termination option and Nenad Krstic
    will be another restricted free agent. He’s an under rated Center that plays well in a running system.

  • manhattanproj

    if w’s do what you said, won’t they be over the cap? say they sign ab, davis or arenas, and whoever this summer to a big contracts and sign monta to a bargain deal, and monta sign a big deal the year after, that’s alot of big deals to be had under the salary. and where does the w’s have the cap space to sign monta to a big contract 2 yrs from now?

    anyway, if w’s can get iguodala that way and cohan doesn’t mind paying, then the fans are looking at a pretty good team in a few years.

    and if the w’s stink it up this year like they are now, they may be able to get derrick rose or oj mayo.

  • petaluman

    Baron has 1 more year on his contract after this one. Technically, he could opt out at the end of the year, but it’s unlikely he’ll find anyone offering more than the 17 million he’s due to get here.

    Assuming BD plays out his contract, just signing Monta to the QO gives us one more year to decide if Ellis is the future PG of this team. If he is, we let Baron walk. If he’s not, Baron would probably be a higher priority than Monta to re-sign in 09.

    What if Baron does opt out? We’ll have to find another starting PG, or Monta gets his extension in 08.

  • Marcus Thompson

    Kinglear,

    Boykins hasn’t signed because he wants more than anyone is willing to pay, and I’m sure he’s being picky and waiting for a winner.
    The reality is that Earl’s defense has slacked significantly, he looks for his shot too much, he’s a defensive liability and there aren’t too many teams who need him.

    manhattanproj,
    The Warriors are at somewhere around $50 million for 2008-09, including Foyle’s buyout. That’s including Baron’s salary and Monta accepting the qualifying offer. If Baron exercises his ETO, the Warriors cap figure drops down to the low 30s (like $33M).
    The salary cap this year was $55.6 million, and it will go up next year (as it does every year), so let’s just say it will be $58M. That’s $8 million to spend on free agents, $25 million if Baron opts out.
    The luxury tax this year is $67.8M, and it will go up next year, so say $70 million. That’s an extra $12 million before hitting the tax.
    So the Warriors would have $20 million to re-sign everybody (remember, you already have Monta in tow per this hypothetical), more if they’re willing to go over the cap. If Baron opts out, you’re looking at $37 million of spending before they pay a single dollar in luxury tax. Granted, they have to fill out fill a big chunk of the roster. But they’d have the loot to play with.

  • Marcus Thompson

    petaluman,

    It’s not that Baron won’t get $17M somewhere else. But that’s not what’s most important. A long-term contract is priority. He has on year at $17.8M left. He’ll give that up for three years at $45M, which I don’t think is out of the question if he has a big year. He would probably give it up for five years, $65M.
    But you are right. If Baron stays, the Warriors get more time to choose their future PG, Monta or Baron.

  • petaluman

    Marcus,

    Thanks for your response. I hadn’t seen any proposed numbers this off-season for his extension. To be honest, I’m a little surprised by your figures. Do you mean he wanted 3/45 starting after his current contract expired, or would it replace 1 or 2 years of it?

    While I hope you’re correct that he’s more reasonable in his demands, I do think he needs more than a big year to earn that kind of deal. He needs a healthy one for sure (>70 games), and a successful one for the team, as well.