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New Record Predictions???

I’m expecting Ellis to be out until January. It’s going to be three months before he can be evalauted just to see if he can resume full-contact practice. And there’s no need to rush him back. The franchise is practically riding on that ankle. So, with no Monta, how do the Warriors hold up? Any chance they can tread water?
By the end of December, they will have played 34 games. Of those, 21 are on the road. I previously had the Warriors at 14-20 over the first 34. Now, without Monta, that’s looking like an OK mark.
What do you think the Warriors record will be over the first 34 games? Will the season be over or will the Warriors have enough to hang around?

Marcus Thompson

  • sincewilt

    looks to me like 10-24 and down in the hole for the year.
    I’m an old Brooklyn Dodger fan, and until the ’55 world series it always was “wait ’till next year!”
    Looks like I picked the right team to continue.
    But some of the other moves are looking good, but…. losing the entire best-scoring (correct?) backcourt in one swell foop is amazing, even for the Worriers

  • Marcus

    Sincewilt,

    10???? Ouch.

  • ss396

    I’m leaning toward 10 myself.
    Even with Monta, I think the jury is out on how Stephen Jackson will handle a leadership role without Baron Davis to keep him “grounded”. He is already making rumblings about being underpaid. When will Stack Jack blow up is going to be a cloud hanging over this team at least the first half of the season.
    Al Harrington may be unhappy with his role on this team with the arrival of Corey Maggette, Ronny Turiaf and Anthony Randolph.
    Any more updates on Shaun Livingston or how he looked in his workouts?

  • Timothy Mcvey

    Great Job marcus, your hot dog concession stand clerk ‘source’ at oracle arena has come through for you again! If I was you i’d grovel at mark stein’s feet for his sources, atleast maybe you’ll have some credibility this time.

  • commish

    Nice name Timothy Mcvey. You are one sick f**k. Leave your venom on the child porn sites you visit and stay off legit sites like this.

  • http://contracostatimes.com Geoff Lepper

    Commish,

    I think your post #5 is spot on.

  • Drew

    Good to see Geoff posting here, not to mention MT2 responding within a post to a comment. As for myself, I’m thinking that this W’s team is probably going to win 13-15 games over that 34 game stretch. Having said that I don’t think we’re going to see a huge drop in team scoring. I think that because the W’s are lacking Baron & Ellis, the team will miss out on crucial situational buckets but over all still average 100+ ppg.

  • Devil’s Advocate

    Marcus,

    As a carry-over from the last thread:

    I believe what you reported. Gotta give you the benefit of the doubt.

    I think the situation is a bit sad. I think IF Monta engaged in any improper activities that it would be normal for someone his age. That doesn’t make it okay to the organization or the fans who foot the bill. I guess either way it’s sad.

    Having said that, I had low expectations for this season anyway. There are some interesting players to watch like Randolph and the new PG. Perhaps long term, this will end up as a positive situation as a building season.

  • Bert

    I would say without Monta, this team is still going to win 17-17. I am very optimistic. And with Monta the playoff is very certain.

  • Joe

    We should switch to the WNBA until Monta is back, I think that playing girls teams will give us a legit shot at a making the playoffs. :)

  • JustPuked

    12-18…and I’m wearing some damn rosy shades just to get to double digit wins.

  • Steve

    I was of the opinion that the Warriors were going to surprise fans and management around the NBA this season with their play. Losing Monta for a couple of months is disappointing, but given the improvement in both depth and the overall level of talent, I’m still optimistic that the Warriors will exceed the expectations of most so-called NBA experts this coming season. Don Nelson is a GREAT coach, a fact that will never be more apparent than this season. With Davis gone and Monta injured, Nelson will be using his ENTIRE roster in trying to win games, and this will only make the team better. Their youth will rear it’s ugly head at times, but with Nellie spinning the matchup wheel from game to game, this will be an exciting team to watch grow and develop. No prediction on number of wins, BUT, Monta has always been quick to heal from (minor) injuries in the past, and given his age I believe he’ll return sooner rather than later. Can the GSW make the playoffs this season? YES! I’m just not sold on teams like Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Houston, and Denver being that formidable in 08-09. Me thinks their better days/seasons are in their rear view mirrors………BTW, thanks to Marcus and Geoff for your excellent work in covering the Warriors. I enjoy unbiased and objective reporting, and the CC Times has always, IMO, been at the top in this regard. Geoff, it’s interesting you mention the San Jose Mercury (Kawakami). Once upon a time they employed Rick Bucher, who IMO kissed so much Chris Webber butt back when the infamous feud between Webber and Nelson was ongoing, it was embarrassing. In fact, after Webber was traded to Washington, who gets a job with the Washington Post? ( Of course now he works for ESPN, where between himself and Chris Berman, there’s proof-positive that you don’t need any discernible talent to make a living) At that same time, Chuck Barney was the CC Times beat writer for the Warriors and was fantastic. All these years later and nothing has changed. Thanks again!

  • john

    Marcus: Even when Monta is back in January there will be questions about his fitness, his quickness, and his shot. He won’t pick up a basketball probably until December.

  • http://contracostatimes.com Geoff Lepper

    Steve in post #11,

    The Washington Post offered Rick Bucher a higher profile market opportunity along with a huge salary increase to leave the Mercury. At that time San Jose hadn’t yet experienced the kind of business growth that has substantially elevated their stature since that time. The combination of these two facts made accepting the Washington Post offer an easy decision for Bucher. But I don’t think it would really be fair to give all the credit for Rick Bucher’s career at ESPN to Chris Webber.

  • Mac

    I just got word from a friend that Monta actually injured himself on a motorcylce. Monta had come into his buddies law office asking what he should do. Any truth to this? I think if it is true the warriors don’t report it.

  • EJ

    can’t really predict where this season is headed because it’s pretty much a whole new team that we haven’t seen on the court. i’m excited to see if randolph will contribute this season.

  • Ishak

    Are we going to play defense? That is our only chance to play at .500. I think we have the ability to be a good defensive team, mainly because every player has the ability to be a good defender. However, there will be no sustained effort and I see us posting a 12-22 record over the first 34. We will have problems defending the perimeter.

  • http://cc Young

    Marcus – If I have learned anything from Don Nelson and the sytle of play he coaches, the Warriors will win more games than they are supposed to. You say 14, then 17 isn’t out of the question.

    Why?

    Don Nelson’s sytle is too hard for coaches to game plan for and opposing players to adjust to within the regular season schedule. I remember in 06-07 when JR was hurt and we were playing Roberson and a young Monta giving teams all they could handle and winning games we had no business being on the court with. Nelly doesn’t need big names, just lots of speed and good jump shooting. He get maximum effort due to his fun sytle of play.

    With that said, he will need someone to handle the ball so to me Marcus Williams is the most important player now. He makes or brakes everything. If he’s in shape come training camp the W’s will be ok without Monta (14+ Wins) if not, lets hope for 10 because it could be a lost worse.

  • Steve

    Geoff, I’m sure it’s easy to tell that I don’t care for Rick Bucher nor his “style” of journalistic reporting. Back in the day, if you read Bucher’s account of what was going on with the Warriors (Nelson and Webber), Nelson was portrayed as the bad guy, and in the end, mostly responsible for Webber leaving and the ultimate meltdown of the team. On the other hand, CC Times’ Chuck Barney came from an entirely different direction. He tried to lay out all the facts and then let the readers come to their own conclusions, which for me was entirely different than the picture that Bucher was trying to paint. Joe Roderick covered the Giants for many years with the Times and had the same style as Chuck Barney. Was Barry Bonds a surly jerk who was tough to deal with from one day to the next? Maybe, but as a reader I could care less whether or not a beat writer gets along with the individual coaches and players that he or she covers. Roderick wrote about the Giants and Bonds for the better part of 12 years, and to this day I have no idea whether or not he liked Bonds. Yet there are many writers from this area who to this day can’t mention Bonds without ripping him in some way, shape, or form. Guys like Rick Bucher work their way up the corporate ladder by trying to appeal to the “tabloid crowd”. His style obviously was attractive to the Washington Post, and eventually to ESPN. As I wrote earlier, there are lots of talking heads at ESPN who aren’t very talented, so Bucher has landed among friends, to be sure. Anyway, enough about that. Geoff, over or under 40 wins this season for the Warriors?

  • manhattanproj

    marcus, what sup with the shaun livingston workout. any news out of that?

  • Marcus

    still trying to find out. As you can imagine, Warriors’ brass aren’t returning my calls

  • Mr. B

    I predict 8-26, the footlong hotdogs will return to the Oakland Coliseum along with the Nacho Grande (extra meat).

  • Who-Da

    I think you are a little conservative with the guess-timate of ME’s return. He might not contribute seriously at all this year. This is a long, slow road we are on from now.

    This can is going to lose lots of muscle mass and agility and if he does not rehab just right: Grant Hill. If he rushes back and tries to contribute this year to make up then you are looking at the early demise of a rare talent.

    Warriors: Hold him out at all costs. Fine him, tell him he will be paid if he makes it to next year without a setback. Save him from himself.

  • Who-Da

    Er, “this cat is going to lose lots of muscle mass…”

  • goingforthemoney.com

    One can only speculate as to what the W’s would have done with or without Monta. In light of the current situation, the W’s will get a chance to give the fans something new and hopefully exciting as before. Only time will truly tell if the W’s will play well together especially since their are a lot of new pieces to the puzzle. I was optimistically hoping for at least 18 wins and 16 losses with Monta, But now 16 wins and 18 losses would seem more likely. Just play the rookies so we can get a feel for their talent and they can get adjusted to the pro game. There is no better time than the present.

  • A.J.

    I too believe that this team is better than predicted by most so called ‘experts.’ Let’s remember that ESPN’s John Hollinger and Chris Sheridan hate the Warriors, they actually hate anything on the West Coast.

    The only 2 ESPN writers in our favor our Marc Stein and Rich Bucher.

    With all that being said, I too am excited about Randolph. I think he can run the entire length of the floor and handle the ball well. I want to see him become a Shawn Marion type player, but I think Randolph handles the ball better than Marion, but I think Shawn Marion is a close comparison. I’ve seen the comparisons to Chris Bosh, I see the length, athleticism, ability to handle the ball and run the entire length of the court with the ball and score, those are similarities he shares with Bosh, but again, at the 3 spot, which is where I think he should play, I look for him to become a Shawn Marion tupe player.

    In the West, to win, you have to have a couple of surprises.

    Last year there were 2: New Orleans and the Lakers. Neither were predicted to finish at the top of the Conference, some had the Lakers even missing the playoffs. The surprise step-up play of Tyson Chandler and David West, the return from injury for Stojakovic and of course a talented and growing young PG, and your’e in the Western Conference semi-finals.

    The Lakers, a new Kobe Bryant willing to become more of a team-oriented player and role players like Vujacic stepping up and improving their games 10 fold. Surprise?……Absolutely. Result: NBA FINALS.

    We need some unexpected things to happen this year for our team to be successful.

    Here are the most important and unexpected things we need to put our team in the class of competitive Western Conference teams:

    1. Huge seasons by Wright and Belinelli. I like both of these guys, if these 2 can come in on that second unit and consistently in the case of Belinelli, shoot the ball well, play within the offense and his game, not turn the ball over, and in the case of Wright, continue to develop his natural, athletic basketball talent and be aggressive, run the floor, get easy baskets, demand the ball, get to the free throw line.

    2. Commitment by Corey Maggette to continue to get to the free throw line and aggressively attack the basket when the offense is stagnant.

    3. Monta Ellis returning and embracing new roll: 21.0 ppg, 8.3 apg, 4.2 rpg and an assist to turnover ratio of 4:1.

    4. Commitment by Don Nelson to play young players and match-up better with rotations.

    5. Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson consistent scoring night in and night our, 18-19 ppg for Jackson, 15-16 for Harrington.

    The combination of these scenarios, will put us in competition for a playoff berth and give us a shot to be competitive in a playoff series.

    So many questions now……what an off-season…unbelievable……I never saw any of this coming.

  • Blair

    I predict the W’s will win more than they lose untill M.E. returns. There is plenty of offence on this squad without him. I noticed that Andris is averaging over 30 ppg in Europe this summer.The addition of ” (inside/outside scoring machines” Magetti & Randolf plus added rebounding muscle & scoring potential of Turiaf, Wright, Hendricks, Harrington, Jackson & Azubuike with any kind of point guard play makes this squad potentially quite formidable.

    Barring any unforseen setbacks like additional injuries, chemistry problems or coach Nelson refusing to leave China, M.E.’s return should galvanize a playoff run.

    OK, a tad rosie, but the W’s deserve a good year.

    Blair

  • Ewok

    Winning is all about Chemistry and of course, being Healthy.

    If we have Chemistry, even without Monta, we are still capable of winning and winning decisively!

    I remember the Houston Rockets back in the day where Hakeem Olajuwon was sidelined for a good 10 to 15 games. The team surprsingly, still managed to make a 10 to 12 game winning streak.

    We will not lose Monta for three months but only for the month of late November to the full month of December. Worst case scenario would be until January.

    But if we manage to stick with the plan, execute strongly, and most of all, play with fluid chemistry, We will be in the hunt.

    Of course, with no players getting injured as well.

  • Road Orange

    So good to Geoff posting.

    15-19!
    (Yes, I’m of sound mind and body.)

  • petaluman

    Marcus,
    This might be a good time to track down Marcus Williams and find out his plans for the remaining time before TC. He should be more amenable to talking than Monta, and more important, in the short term.

    Over the summer, he’s been sighted at Tim Grgurich’s camp:

    http://www.examiner.com/x-441-Golden-State-Warriors-Examiner~y2008m8d7-Tim-Grgurich-holds-his-annual-camp-for-NBA-players-and-nobody-notices–just-the-way-he-likes-it

    and at the Jim Calhoun Charity All-Star Basketball Game:

    http://www.courant.com/services/newspaper/printedition/sports/hc-calhoun0810.artaug10,0,6792931.story

    Has he had much chance to work out with his new teammates? Does he have any plans to, in advance of TC? Is he physically 100%, has he had a chance to get into ‘Nellie’ shape (at least 5 pounds less than he’s played at)?

  • haastheman

    Let’s not over react here. i actually had to chuckle a little myself when i said that. Without Monta we will learn a lot about this team. I think this really give Jackson room to go after that contract he wants too. Right now we’re looking at a line up of:

    PG marcus williams
    sg captain jack
    sf maggs
    pf harrington
    c biedrens
    BENCH
    RANDOLPH
    WRIGHT
    BUKIE
    WATSON
    BELLENILI
    TURIAF

    it thins us out a little bit, but now we have minutes for everyone. We will also have to see time from randolph, wright, and bellenili, which is a great thing.