50

Despite Sunday’s Win, the Warriors Still Have a Chance to Keep Their Pick – Going to Take Some Help Though

Charles Jenkins played 48 minutes, totaling 24 points, 9 assists and six rebounds. Brandon Rush had 19 points and 9 rebounds off the bench. Dominic McGuire had 12 points, 7 rebounds and four assists.

Together, they helped the Warriors come from 21 points down to steal a 93-88 win at Minnesota, snapping an eight-game losing streak. They also landed a body blow to the Warriors’ chances at keeping their draft pick.

It is their fault Golden State fans are left in a quandry. Should they be happy their young players showed some moxie, made some key plays and got some valuable experience? Or should they be frustrated the Warriors perhaps just gave up a lottery pick in exchange for a meaningless win in a lost season?

Here are some specifics and scenarios we need to set up first:

*If the Warriors land a top 7 pick, they keep it. If it’s 8th or lower, they lose it

*Draft order is determined at the draft lottery on May 30. But percentages of winning the lottery are based on regular season finish. Worst record has the best chance, and so on.

*If the Warriors had lost, and went on to lose their remaining two games, the worst they could have finished was tied for No. 6, which could have given them either a 95.9 percent chance (if they win the coin toss) or a 75 percent chance (if they lose the coin toss).

* The win left the Warriors with the eighth-worst record. If the Warriors finish with the eighth worst record, they’d have a 10 percent chance of moving up into the top 3 – which they would have to do to keep their pick.

*If the Warriors lose their final two games, they’d total 23 wins and the worst they can do is finish tied for seventh-worst. New Jersey and Toronto face each other in the finale. Meaning one of those two will finish with at least 23 wins. In the event of a tie, who goes No. 7 or No. 8 will be determined by a coin flip (provided neither team moves up).

*Despite the coin flip, both teams tied for No. 7 will split the total combinations between No. 7 and No. 8. The two spots combined get 71 combinations. So they’ll each get 35 combinations (the coin flip determines who gets that extra combination). That gives the Warriors at least a 3.5 percent chance of moving up.

*If either Toronto or New Jersey win their final two games, and Golden State loses out, the Warriors could get No. 7 alone, giving them a 75 percent chance of keeping their pick. New Jersey closes the season by hosting Philadelphia and visiting Toronto. The Raptors close the season by visiting Milwaukee and hosting New Jersey.

*If Cleveland wins two of its final 3 games – at Memphis, vs. Washington, at Chicago – and the Warriors lose out, Golden State would then be in a tie for sixth-worst record.

So, in essence, the Warriors performance took the chances of keeping their pick from a near certainty to a proverbial coin flip. Thanks to Klay Thompson’s timely late drive-and-dish to Brandon Rush, who nailed the go-ahead 3-pointer, Golden State now needs other teams to win AND the coin flip(s) to work out in their favor.

Some call hoping the Warriors lose and other teams win an unseemly way to support the team. Some view tanking as sacrilegious per the articles of fanhood. Some consider it disrespectful to the effort and resolve of the Warriors out there fighting hard.

Most, however, are not happy – for the reasons above – that the Warriors stole that win in Minnesota. Golden State could still keep its pick. But it’s going to require they do something they refused to do Sunday night: lose.

Marcus Thompson

  • Young

    Frustrated the warriors might have just gave away there pick!

    None of the arguments for winning THIS game make any sense.

    It is good to build team chemistry for next year, but you just lost 7 in a row and there are only 2 games left. How much chemistry will be added at this point?

    If its sacrilegious to loose on purpose, how about a team that has an aging veteran and trades him for high draft picks tanking the season. Is that too sacrilegious or just smart management?

    At the end of the day, keeping this pick would help the warriors win long term, yes hurting them now. But all good teams make decisions for the long term. and you dont have to tell the guys to stop playing hard to loose on purpose. Just play the youth.

    This is the last straw for Lacob and its only 1 year. if he doesnt pull off a way to keep this pick (remember he said he can get it back from Utah even if we finish outside the top 7) I’m not giving Lacob another single red cent…No tickets & no jersey sales from me. Period

  • Pick n Roll

    This whole tanking scenario is for the birds. I am happy the Warriors won tonight!

  • Ewok

    We don’t really need an Anthony Davis to play along David Lee and Bogut. That’s going to be too much personality ego on one team for a whole season. Would Davis settle for the bench or as a back up for the two veterans? or even vice versa?

    Therefore, we can settle for second pick down to the seventh pick. If we could get Perry Jones, a seven footer who plays three, four and five, that would be a good fit!

  • don’t trade 23′s

    I don’t know if we will ever get out of our own way? The fact that Monta got traded and it did’nt help the bucks bodes well for us and Dwight Howard got injured. lets just see what happens, we suck at the draft anyway!LOL

  • itsagreattimeout

    I’m very frustrated the Warriors won. Freaking Brandon Rush. What is he playing for anyway? Coach should have taken Jenkins out when he was hurt. That would have been the perfect excuse to play another man down, especially a PG. Jackson should have known better. His players have to play hard but he can still make decisions to lose the game. Playing Gladness and Mikki Moore was pure genius. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough.

  • Niners in 2012

    Worst win in the history of this franchise!! 30 years from now we’ll still gonna be looking back at this win shaking our collective heads. “Hey remember back in 2012 when we screwed things up coming back from 20 down and winning that meaningless game in Minnesota?” Just terrible. We go from #6 and a 95.9% chance to keep the pick to #8 and a 90% of losing it. Terrible turn of events.

  • Sensei Ben

    @Ewok What makes you think they’re landing Anthony Davis? The Warriors chances to keep their pick at all is mediocre in the first place, and even if they did have the draft pick, the chances of them getting the first overall pick are VERY slim. Now, more realistically, say they got like the 6th pick, which they could use to select someone like Harrison Barnes. Barnes has his faults, but he could contribute immediately from the 3 spot (the Warriors only weakness at this point) and also play some well-needed defense. A lineup of Curry, Klay, Barnes, Lee, and Bogut would have tons of offensive punch but also a bit of defensive toughness as well.

  • Derek

    Typical Warriors. What a dysfunctional team !

  • Ewok

    It’s so funny. I have never been in a situation i cherished losing and hated winning.

    But most of the fans do have a point. What’s the point when the equivalent of a loss at this juncture is about 15 to 20 more wins in the future?

  • @stlkr

    Jerry West has a diamond out there he loves I just know it. So I ain’t trippin at all. All I know that if everyone can stay healthy next year that Warriors will be in Playoffs with or without this years pick.

  • snarkk

    “So, in essence, the Warriors performance took the chances of keeping their pick from a near certainty to a proverbial coin flip.” Any Dubs fan that exults in this win has no freekin clue. None. Essentially twenty years of garbage teams. Finishing with 3 losses would cement a top pick in a deep, deep draft — the deepest in years. In the NBA, the draft is near everything. This stupid, meaningless win may have just guaranteed another half decade of 9 and 10 finishes and no playoffs. Is that worth building “chemistry” for next year, with a bunch of guys you don’t even know will all be back? Anybody that believes that tradeoff is worthwhile has no sense of what is going on here with this franchise. Warrior fans have a right tonight to be enraged and to entertain a feeling of hopelessness…

  • dubs

    @#2

    I don’t think you understand the situation. You are happy with the win tonight? Are you serious? The best the Warriors can finish is 25-41, which is terrible. I would have wanted to be 22-44, which is also terrible but would have pretty much guaranteed a top 7 pick. This season is OVER, it has been for a while now. The only thing us Warriors fans have to look forwards to is the deep draft before next season starts. We already have a late first round pick from the Spurs and it would be great to keep our early first round pick. A meaningless win tonight hurt our chances at a top pick for next season. I don’t know about you but I want the best players possible to ball with Curry, Thomspson, Lee and Bogut. We got Jerry friekin West to select a lottery pick for us if we can keep it. That is how we are going to improve, not by winning a game in a lost season and sending our pick to Utah.

  • wil

    All I know is, whomever were the main culprits of this win, should not be part of this team next year!!! Starting with Larry Riley

  • wil

    This team don’t even have a clue!!! What the heck were they thinking??? Yeah, in as much as I love Jackson, let’s keep malone fir next year

  • Yoda

    I’m sad to see the win, but I figured that with a 75% chance of keeping the pick the W’s would have found a way for that 25% chance to come through.

  • Young

    Still up set we won…

    Did management know we had a LEGIT chance of getting the #3 pick in the draft. He will be known as MKG and all the draft junkies think he will be great!

    All this time we were tanking, I thought on purpose (silly me), I’ve been dreaming of the first LEGIT warrior roster in my life time. Defensive team with shooters, scorers, well balanced…

    Curry – Thompson – MKG – LEE – Bogut

    Pure insanity…

  • Stan

    MT2 blames the players? Its on Jackson to not show coaching maturity. One substitute..and the Warriors have a high pick. Sure,he can boast philosophy now,but when the next season rolls around and the games truly count..he’s going to realize his false pride was bad strategy-horrid strategy. A rookie NBA coach at his worst last night.

  • marquee jackson

    WTH are these dumb butts doing? Don’t they get it? They loose by winning. I am switching my time watching College hoops which is a bit better than the the NBA IQ.

    Can you spell STUPID?

  • Brian F

    Reading some of your posts makes me realize that most of you don’t even have a clue. I’ve been a Warrior fan for well over 30 years, and although I did not want to see them win this game, what the hell were they supposed to do? You can’t blame these players for trying to win. This is what they do for a living. There are players on this team that are playing for contracts next year (Brandon Rush, Dominic McGuire, N.Robinson, Gladness, etc) while other players will be fighting for minutes next season(C.Jenkins, J.Tyler). Not to mention certain players aren’t even sure if they will be on the roster next year so they are always auditioning for other teams. So trying to win and trying to position themselves (for a better opportunity) next season is all they know. Why should they care about a draft pick when, frankly, it won’t even effect some of the players? This is not a reflection on the players, this is a reflection of the previous front office who thought trading for Marcus Williams was a good idea. I understand the frustration from everyone, trust me, I’m a Warrior fan just like you guys, but the reality of it is that these guys are not going to just throw in the towel because the previous regime screwed up.

  • John Starks

    There is absolutlely o reason to pick up one more win in a totally lost season – it’s way too late for moral victories. Does it really matter if they finish with 23 versus 24 wins? No, it still means they failed. That one extra meaningless win could cost them a high draft pick.

    Yet again, this non-tanking situation has the makings of a classic Warrior blunder. I can see Bill Simmons adding this to his list for next year.

  • DW

    We’re really gonna give this organization the business on “Fan Night” if they lose this pick. Thursday will be real interesting.

  • Stan

    And whats really bad? This is the second time in three years they’ve done this…remember the loss of a high pick so that Nelson could get his record? Now Mark Jackson with this bonehead coaching.

  • sperry

    I completely understand frustrations with winning last nights game and how it may effect our draft pick… but seriously, im tired of losing, and im tired of losing now so we can win later, it has never worked. I would prefer a win like last night, and a little fun for the last two games of the season.

  • dahnb2000

    According to most of these “fans”, players should go out and lose on purpose so the precious draft pick stays with GS. And this is not cheating how?

  • John

    The team has nothing to play for except the draft pick, but the same can’t be said for the individual players. Brandon Rush and Mcguire aren’t signed for next year, so why wouldn’t they play as hard as they can every game to try to get the best deal they can next year? And then the rookies that went undrafted or in the second round have a lot to prove before the end of the season if they want to have a job next year as well.

  • deano

    BrianF: Well said. The players ARE the Warriors. Everyone else is on the sidelines or in the seats. Every game, these players compete smart and hard against better teams. Their perspective needs to be taken into consideration. One win in nine games is small compensation for their efforts; and for true professionals, it is NOT only about the paycheck. So don’t hassel them, or the coaches, because they won.

  • Young

    @ Deano

    1 win in 9 games really means your job performance is not meeting expectations and your financial compensation should be stopped immediately. my 2 cents…

  • Grey Warden

    Somebody told me previously I was blind to not see the Warriors’ bright future next year. And now they are upset the Warriors won yesterday lol

  • Brian F

    @ Deano

    So let me get this straight. You think that because a player is not meeting his expectations then his financial compensation should be stopped?? With that logic than half the players in the league wouldn’t be getting compensated. And how would you define expectations per player. If a player is not meeting expectations but his team is still winning, isn’t that the bottom line? With your logic LeBron James wouldn’t be getting compensated because he is not meeting his expectations.

  • marquee jackson

    Wins and looses should be managed at the coaching level. Mark knows what needs to happen for him to have a chance at a highly skilled “Big”. He should have the aptitude to manage the game so that players play optimally but at the same time do not risk the slim chance of getting a draft pick.

    If the pick is lost, then we need to juggle some balls to get a skilled player – through free agency and trades,etc…

    Mark, please get a clue! What the hell??

  • Stan

    And I know GW,I said I wasn’t certain that Jackson could improve as a coach. Yesterday was like he had no idea of the teams history,no feel for the suffering fans have had..a vet coach wo understands pulls Nate or whoever and tells him “Your toe hurts-sit!”

  • deano

    Brian: You’ve got me wrong. “Meeting expectations” is not my phrase. Players get paid whether the team wins or loses. My point is that pros play for more than money. Pros want to win, not just get paid. GSW has pros on the roster. This is a good thing.

  • Stan

    Just a tewribble ,tewribble ( Use C.Barkley voice) rookie coach mistake. No excuse.

  • Grey Warden

    Stan, my previous comment wasn’t directed at you lol

  • Eric

    Mark Jackson would have had to substitute the whole bench to pull off a loss last night. Gladness would have had to play the point. Did all you guys not see how ridiculously bad Minnesota is? They had Randolph playing big minutes for Christs sake.

  • Stan

    One of the Wolves was so mad he said half the team just quit. Just our luck.

  • Niners in 2012

    LARRY RILEY needs to be called out front and center by the media. I’m sorry but why in the world did he change the protection on this pick from top 11 to top 7?? It just cost us a really good player, he should be fired.

  • Omar Wandera

    Marcus, love your stuff bro and proud of your work. Man, this Warriors win in a LOSS! This has to be the most puzzling win I’ve ever witnessed, as it begs to be part of the ongoing folklore provided by Bill Simmons. I can see it now, 61 steps to annoy a fan base. Well lets cross our fingers and hope for the best, but chances and math aren’t on our side.

    Thanks McGuire for your and one, thanks Rush for your timely threes, and more importantly thanks Mark Jackson for doing your best to secure your searches on Monster.com next season because you couldn’t do what the entire Warrior Nation needed you to do. I guess getting a good look at Jeremy Tyler, and Charles Jenkins was all worth it!

  • haWastheman

    It’s not where you draft, it’s who you draft. Do you know how silly you guys sound. Listen, we tried, but the other teams REALLY sucked. we just lost seven in a row and it barely made a difference. There’s no reason to condem a team for winning. Shit, we were down more than 20. What do you want them to do lay down. They’re Men for christ sakes, some of them are playing for jobs next year. With or without the seventh pick we will have a solid pick, and we were gonna have to give up the pick eventually. We have a late first, and two second round picks in a deep draft with a front office that knows how to evaluate talent. Although I’d be happy if we have the pick, Do we really need another 19 yr old kid running around the floor?

  • http://abc.com abc

    Mark Jackson is really the only person that could’ve controled the outcome. He needed to get some bench players more time on the floor if the starters were getting hot.

    Jackson failed.

    The players only know 100% win. But its up to the coach to control his chess pieces. He was winning and thus lost a valuable pick which could be better than any of the players on the current roster.

    I’d rather have Jackson fired if it meant we could keep that draft pick. So, fire Jackson.

  • Joe adler

    As a fan for over 50 years, I am stunned, the stupidity of the Warriors organization just hit a new low. Why in hell was this win needed??? With no money under the cap for the next 2 years, keeping the draft pick was highly important. Stupid decisions
    one after the other, using the amnesty on Bell instead of the 7′ dude was dumb, now this stupid win. The “great” minds running this team are the dumbest in the NBA, I am no more a Warriors fan, I just can’t take it anymore.

  • Roy

    The only reason why I want the Warriors to keep their pick this year is because of how deep this draft selection is. Warriors can land one following players if they keep the 7th overall pick: Jeremy Lamb (SG – slide Klay to SF and bench Wright), Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, OR Austin Rivers.

  • Young

    Hey Niners in 2012, can you send a link for your source on that info? I havent been able to find / nvr heard before

  • Bayarea101

    Check it out if you are a player in the nba you dont ever want to lose its a business and if you dont play good maybe the next man will…. So why would the warriors lose a game so they can get a better player in the draft and then they lose a spot on the team and lose playing time

  • Brian F

    @Deano.

    My apologies. I misunderstood your quote.

  • Tired Fan

    If you decide to tank your final games, how can you look in the mirror? Even if they keep one of the 3-7 picks, their chances are slim that they would pick a difference maker. Look at the record over the last 20 years of mediocrity. Let the players learn and keep what pride they have.

  • marquee jackson

    A fairly high draft choice to the Warriors is like a tire with some thread to it especially if your other four tires are bald. For gosh sakes, lets not win any more games to give us a chance at something. Get a clue. Step1 of demoting Riley was a good first step.

    Somebody please coach the damn team the right way for this season.

    “LETS NOT SCREW UP BY WINNING”

  • Grey Warden

    #36 Young,

    The original was 1-11 protected pick (this coming lotto draft) by the former GM Chris Mullin. Riley reduced this year’s protection 1-7 in order to get into last year’s draft to get Klay Thompson.

  • http://none Uhhrgh

    Some of you make me sick. Do you understand the meaning of delayed gratifications? Wanting to win last night’s game is the equivalent of boning the shyt out of a dirty hooker knowing when you wake up your model wife will divorce your azz. You’re the type of people who have a few hundred bucks in your saving account because you do not see the big picture, you do not plan for the future, nor care about the consequences of what little fun you have tonight.

  • http://none Uhhrgh

    As a basketball fan, ask yourself what goals you want this team to achieve? Is any of those goals a stupid win with 2 games remaining in a 23 win season? Anybody? I’m a die hard Warriors fans for 3 decades, and I will tell you my goals: 1) make the playoffs in 2013 2) build a traditional roster with good size and put players at their true positions where they don’t rely too much on athleticsm 3) within 3 years, give me a title contender. Exactly what contribution did last night’s win provide us toward any of those 3 goals? If you just want to see meaningless wins, go to the local parks. The rest of us want to see this team succeed.