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Warriors Win Tie-Breaker; Chance of Keeping Draft Pick Better than 70 percent

UPDATED: The Warriors will have better than a 70 percent chance of keeping their first-round draft pick after winning the tie-breaker with Toronto on Friday, the team announced. As a result, Golden State could end up with four first-round picks.

Golden State and the Raptors finished tied with the seventh-worst record in the NBA. A random drawing held by the NBA in New York broke the tie. The Warriors will be slotted No. 7 entering the draft lottery, and Toronto is slotted No. 8.

Winning the tie-breaker means Golden State has a 12.6 percent chance of moving up into the top three, including a 3.6 percent chance of landing the top pick. There is nearly a 60 percent chance the Warriors will stay at No. 7.

If Golden State lands the eighth pick or lower, it will be sent to Utah based on a trade from 2008. But if the Warriors land a top seven selection, a condition kicks in that allows them to keep the selection and send their 2013 pick to Utah.

The Warriors will find out where they draft at the May 30 draft lottery in Secaucus, N.JNew York. Winning the tie-breaker means Golden State has a 12.6 percent chance of moving up into the top three, including a 3.6 percent chance of landing the top pick. There is nearly a 60 percent chance the Warriors will stay at No. 7.

If the Warriors had lost the tie-breaker, they would have been slotted No. 8. That would have required they move up in the draft lottery into the top three, which the No. 8 slot now has a 12.4 percent chance of doing.

The Warriors were involved in a total of four tie-breakers on Friday, winning three of them. The other three involved the pick from San Antonio Golden State acquired in exchange for Stephen Jackson, and second round picks the Warriors acquired from New Jersey and Atlanta. In addition to potentially getting a top seven pick, the Warriors will select No. 30, 35 and 52. The 30th pick they got from the Spurs. The No. 35 pick they got from New Jersey in the Brandon Wright/Dan Gadzuric for Troy Murphy trade February 2011. The No. 52 pick they bought from Atlanta in March.

Marcus Thompson

  • Dirk Suave

    It’s about time. But last I checked the last time the dubs won a coin flip the team slotted eight won the draft and selected JWall. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen this time. Go Dubs.

  • noah

    Can anybody explain the math behind the conclusion that the Ws have a 72.4% chance of keeping their own pick? I think you have to calculate the odds of one or more lower lottery teams moving up to the top three, then subtract the odds of the Ws moving to the top three if one or more lower seeded team moves up. Any non-innumerates who can explain the calculation?

  • Joe

    Utah still gets our 2013 pick? So if we get to keep our pick this year, we end up going through tanking to avoid sending Utah our pick again next year?

  • noah

    @Joe, I think the 2013 pick is unprotected.

  • ChuckDurn

    2013 pick is top-6 protected. Hopefully with a healthy line-up, we won’t be anywhere near the bottom-6 next year, and will simply lose the pick at that point.

  • Scrub

    They need to do a combination of either trading the 2 late round picks, 30th pick, and/or possibly a player for either a higher pick 1st rounder or a first rounder next year.

    They also need to get rid of salaries this summer. Whether it’s Jefferson, AB, or Lee. They need to have cap space for other moves or signing Curry to an extension.

  • RQ

    I know it’s premature but if they stay at 7 any idea on who they will take?

  • ryan

    2013 pick is top-6 protected

  • Stan

    Already the “Not the old Warriors” vibe is out there. Since when do we win 3 out of 4 tiebreakers? and 70% sounds good. I guess.

  • PJ

    Noah,

    This paper summarizes it nicely:

    http://www.ajur.uni.edu/v2n3/Florke%20&%20Ecker.pdf

    You have to modify the number of ping pong balls for the 7 & 8 slot to 36 for the # 7 team and 35 for the number 8 team. Then follow the same steps. A spread sheet helps.

    Also be sure to NEVER read Tim Kawakami’s column because he consistently gets is WAY wrong with stats & probabilities since math is for homers.

    A quick and dirty estimate is to use the table on wikipedia and add up the chances that the #7 slot will end up 8,9, or 10. But that table assumes the Warriors have 43 balls not 36 it overestimates the probability to keep the pick. You can compare it to the chances that the #6 slot will end up 7,8, or 9 and average the two to estimate.

    For the the number 7 slot ( .232+.018+.001=.2510) so the probability it is 7 or better is 1-.2510 which is 0.749. Following the same steps the number 6 team has a 0.659 chance of remaining 6 or better. The true number must be between 0.749 and .659. Averaging this out you get about .7 for a ball park number.

  • Chis Really

    Let’s assume we have a relatively successful year (2012-13) in-terms of injuries, & Steph n Bogues play at least 70 games each. In that case, & assuming we keep Rush & McGuire + add some rebounding depth for the bench via free agency, then I think the 2013 pick we send to Utah will be in the early 20′s. So we won’t really give a rip because it’s only a late first rounder & right now we have so many young players we are looking at (Tyler, C Wright, Jenkins) + all the 2012 draft picks we select. I know it’s also a possibility that we move a few picks.

  • Daniel

    Do the Warriors still own their own 2nd round pick?

  • Grey Warden

    I wouldn’t celebrate just yet. There’s still the chance of ending up 8th and losing the pick. Until David Stern busts out that #8 envelope with the Raptors’ name on it is when you can start celebrating.

  • Pingback: tank is on? - Page 11

  • http://ibabuzz.com antispy3

    Great news, especially with the Giants having a “sacraficial lmb” on the mound tonight & the Raiders sitting on their hands until the endd of drafting tonight. . .still think Perry Jones III is the way to go for the W’s. Five guys that can get their own shot or distribute to the best available option? And @ 6’11″ he will be a natural waakside shot blocker. . .could be a more fluid righthanded Tayshaun Prince. . .was afraid they wouldn’t retain this pick after beating the ‘Wolves twice down the stretch. Tank days are over. . .

  • WarriorRaiderA’s

    this is great news folks, we now have a good chance to get a top 7 pick! the fact that the NBA gave us a tie breaker tells me they like the new ownership and would like to see the logo’ help them turn things around in Golden State! perhaps they actually let us keep the pick… if it plays like that we will have the chips in place to change things for good with a very trade able Dwright expiring contract + 4 draft picks and 2 sophmores who’ve gotten valuable court time and have very trade able contracts in tyler n jenkins, we got easily resignable reserves in Cwright and Mcguire.. klay n the big three starting and hopefully we can keep rush as our 5th starter.looking better then i can ever remember, especially if we keep that lottery pick!! we will be wheeling and dealing. its still a big if, but at least we arent holding out hope for a top 3 pick or loosing it, we have a real shot to keep it, so stoked!!

  • noah

    @pj, thanks, that helps. I was looking at it backward, trying to calculate the odds that one of the teams below the Ws would move up, then working from there. But the better way to do it is to figure out the odds that the Ws pick 1, then pick 2, then pick 3, THEN figure out the odds that at least one team from 8-14 will pick 1-3. That last calculation is the hardest one.

    I still wish a math smarty would show up here and do the calculations for me, but at least now I know what I have to do.

    Other sources are reporting it as 72.4%, so maybe my instinct was wrong and that number is right.

  • Young

    Hopefully our luck is-a-changing!

  • WarriorRaiderA’s

    the fact that the NBA gave us a tie breaker tells me they like the new ownership and would like to see the logo’ help them turn things around in Golden State! perhaps they actually let us keep the pick… if it plays like that we will have the chips in place to change things for good with a very trade able Dwright expiring contract + 4 draft picks and 2 sophmores who’ve gotten valuable court time and have very trade able contracts in tyler n jenkins, we got easily resignable reserves in Cwright and Mcguire.. klay n the big three starting and hopefully we can keep rush as our 5th starter.looking better then i can ever remember, especially if we keep that lottery pick!! we will be wheeling and dealing. its still a big if, but at least we arent holding out hope for a top 3 pick or loosing it, we have a real shot to keep it.

  • Stan

    MT2? You do realize that hilarity in a title “Warriors win 70% of something good”..more or less.

  • Stan

    and “Possibly”..!

  • http://www.nbadraft.net/nba_draft_trades/2012 retech

    From nbadraft.net:

    Jazz receive the Warriors’ 2012 first-round pick, via Nets (Marcus Williams trade) (top 7 protected in 2012 and 2013, top 6 protected in 2014. If not received by 2014, Jazz will instead receive Warriors’ 2014 and 2016 second round picks) (Deron Williams trade 02-24-11)

  • FANTOM

    the pick is not 72% likely- that would have been the case if it was #7 not a tie. its just under 70%. and the likelihood of 1-3 is just over 10%

  • Ewok

    It feels that were finally getting momentum when it comes to breaks! Finally the front office is getting their act together as compared to the past years, and most of all, were finally doing things right!

    This draft is so special because a guy like Perry Jones is reachable and that’s all we need to become very competitive to the playoffs no to mention the other picks which could mean getting Mason Plumlee which will be a great help just the same..

    We finally are doing things right and it will soon turn around.

    To those of you who booed Lacob, this is his vision and its working.

  • haaastheman

    I’m glad i spent last saturday locking up season tickets for next year. I’m glad to hear Myers say that if we keep our pick that we would more than likely be looking to make a trade. Especially since trading one of our swing men would probably be the only way we keep Rush. Monta gave us a lot of memories, and Udoh was really starting to show promise, but with or without the pick i believe we are in a better place moving forward. Let’s go Warriors!

  • Stan

    I’m a pretty sharp guy-on my good days- but I have to salute MT2 on this post. A 73% chance to be a 3% chance or be a 8 before 7?..yikes. He did more math and homework I bet on this post then any other in his career.

  • Harp’s Dubs

    May 30th is a huge day for us. Hopefully, we have a deal in place with the Celtics after they suffer a first round loss to the Hawks that would send:
    Steph Curry, Andris Biedrins, our lottery pick and our two 2nd rounders to Boston for Rajon Rondo and Brandon Bass.
    With the 30th pick, we take a flyer on Fab Melo from Syracuse.
    Next year’s squad:
    PG – Rondo/Jenkins
    SG – Thompson/Rush (must re-sign)
    SF – McGuire (must re-sign)/Jefferson/Wright
    PF – Lee/Bass
    C – Bogut/Tyler/Melo
    During the year, it’d be great to use Wright or Jefferson and our Udoh trade exception to land a quality player.

  • Stan

    I’m not opposed to a Curry trade. He’s not as intense as it takes to be a star in the NBA. Too much have a good game..and then a long break before he does it again. You might say what a average player does. Lets hope he has a good year.

  • roadster

    Our luck had changed few days ago when Larry Riley was demoted. Larry and Biedrens are the jinks in this organization. Larry didn’t make a pick for last years draft. It was Jerry West. Two years ago Larry did it and he picked up Udoh over Monroe. Anthony Randolf four years ago. Curry was Don Nelsons pick 3 years ago. Probably he is a good scout for bench players.

  • Ewok

    Curry is a bit too tender. Nevertheless i still like him but not on the idea of playing him for a full 40 minutes a game. I like playing him 25 minutes max per game for the season, and a around 30 to 35 playoffs… If he holds up and the team reaches the finals then it’s on…

    Charles Jenkins is a good back up is only going to get better. Nate Robinson is an energizer but could be a bit of a flaw defensively because of his size but nevertheless, he’s a strong athlete..

  • Spencer

    MT, any chance the Warriors take Marshall because they are worried about Steph?