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Warriors Talks with Utah to Secure Lottery Pick “Probably Not Going to Happen”

Looks as if the Warriors will just have to face the odds. It wasn’t for lack of trying, but talks between Golden State and Utah are all but dead, according to a league source.

The Warriors had been working diligently to secure a first-round pick heading into Wednesday’s NBA draft lottery, according to multiple sources. Golden State gets to keep its pick if it lands in the top seven. If it’s No. 8 or lower, the pick goes to Utah as part of a previous trade.

The Warriors head into the draft lottery, scheduled for 5 p.m. on TNT, slotted at No. 7 —which means they have a 72.66 percent chance of keeping their pick, based on the odds released by the NBA. It also means Golden State has just shy of a 28 percent chance of falling out of the top seven and losing the pick.

The talks with Utah were designed for the Warriors to keep the pick in the event they fall out of the top seven. But the source said at this point “that’s probably not going to happen.”

Marcus Thompson

  • Scotty

    another brilliant move by Lacob telling everyone that we would be able to get that pick back from them

  • Bane

    Perhaps the Warriors front office would have been better off not leaking or publicly discussing their negotiations with Utah before a deal could be made.

  • Jerzz

    I feel bad for Warrior fans, but if they slip to 8th, I will point and laugh so hard at their front office.

  • Derek

    The only words the Warriors need to remember during this upcoming draft are muscles and rebounding. They need inside guys and have needed that type for years.

    Lets hope this agent turned GM knows how to properly build a roster.

    Oh and HOPE they aren’t dumb enough to release or trade Chris Wright, dude will be the real deal when given the opportunity.

  • Shailendra

    Great job on Lacob to prove to the fanbase that he is active and making things happen. Worst case, if the Warriors lose the pick, let’s revamp the executive management team, we just don’t have enough people working under Lacob doing nothing, we simply need more (front office) talent and need to spend more (front office allocated) money. The game is won and lost in the office, not on the court. Get with the Lacob culture people!

  • DW

    This saved Lacob more head ache. We are going to get a top 5 pick in my opinion and people would have ragged on him hard for giving away assets when we did not need to. Stern is not going to let him get booed like that, I feel it in my bones we are going to get a top 5 pick.

  • Ken

    Paying for a 28% chance is a fools bet – especially when you already own the 72% chance.

    Since most people don’t understand probability or math, it is understandable that they might think a deal with Utah was good.

    Trying to make it as simple as possible, there is much more chance that Warriors get #7 pick than that they have to give it to Utah because it drops to #8.

    So, giving Utah future draft picks in exchange for the 28% chance is simply betting on the less probable chance, it makes no sense. The coin toss cannot blow out its ACL tendon, or get inspired and play its best game of the year. It’s just a coin toss.

    There are plenty of bookies out there saying, “Hey Lacob, I’ll let you bet on 28% chances with me all you want !”.

  • DJP

    If your bones were telling you we are going to get a top 5 pick, you should ask them to read up on how the lottery works, because we literally can’t get the 4th or 5th pick. We can land at 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, or 10, but if we land at 8, 9, or 10, it goes to Utah.

    Paying for 28% chance isn’t a fool’s bet. Paying a lot for a 28% chance is, however. There have been people on both sides saying such a trade would be stupid, but such statements are meaningless without the context of what we’d potentially be offering. I would have given up the #30 or #35 pick to lock this in; probably not more than that. If the bookies asked me to bet on a 28% chance, and gave me 4:1 odds, I’d take them up on it every time. Look at it like this: the real offer would be something like, “72% of the time you give up the #35 pick and get nothing. 28% of the time you get the #8 pick when you otherwise would have had no pick.” Is that #8 pick worth 4 times as much as the #35 pick? If so, that’s just smart insurance.

  • David Wood

    Totally agree with what Ken said. Also, you’re making one of the worst Warrior trades in history even WORSE by giving up even more assets on top of it. Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows you take the odds and leave it at that. Ugh there’ still idiots running the Warriors FO.

  • floppymoose

    I want to play poker with Ken. I’ll know he’s never on a draw.

  • Nigel Tufnel

    “We are going to get a top 5 pick in my opinion”

    @DW, they cannot get the #4 or #5 picks, they will either jump into the top 3 (only a 12.7% chance), or they will keep the #7 pick, or someone else will jump into the top 3 and knock them out of the lottery. There is zero possibility of a 4-5 pick.

  • Mike

    Pretty sure Stern is gonna rig this lottery for us!

  • marc

    Nigel, probably a stupid question, but can you please explain why GSW can’t get the 4th or 5th. I guess I haven’t paid attention enough. Thanks

  • Grey Warden

    “We tried like the dickens to give them Beans for the rights to keep our pick, but they denied our requests”

    - Lacob

    lol (and no that’s not an actual quote from lacob)

    I’m going to LMAO if the Warriors end up 8th and Lacob tells everybody “I told you so.”

  • DJP

    @Marc – the first three picks are chosen at random based on the probabilities you hear so much about. After that, the remaining lottery teams pick in reverse order of finish. So the only way you can pick 4th is to have finished 4th worst, or to have finished in the top 3 but gotten bumped down by teams jumping ahead of you. Same with the 5th pick. This is how the lottery has worked since 1987.

  • Rich

    Lacob, needs to shut up, and keep his mouth closed. Actions speak louder than words

  • FANTOM

    An embarassment and a disappointment. Hopefully its a bluff and the deal will get cut at the last minute now that the Warriors have set limits about what they will give. If I were negotating I would have to walk away from the table to get my best deal. But I wouldnt have acted so interested and made the commitment in the first place

  • deano

    I hope that this non-deal works out as well as the DeAndre Jordan non-deal.

    At the moment of failure,both efforts had the same PR value, providing GSW with some cover: “We knew there was a need for this deal, so we tried our best to make a deal; but we couldn’t do a deal”.

    The Jordan deal failure gave GSW the opportunity to later do the Bogut deal. This Utah deal failure will hopefully allow GSW to draft quality player with SA’s #30 pick, which I assume was what Utah wanted to further delay receipt of GSW’s pick.

  • roadster

    If we have the lottery pick and need a big man pick Sullinger. If we are going small, go for Rivers.
    Since we need the rebounds, I guess Sullinger is the man, a 280 pound, 6′-10″ monster inside.

  • Lacob’sRealityCheck

    Just more evidence that you have to take A LOT of what Joe “Blowhard” Lacob says with a grain of salt…

  • Italy 415

    DW and KEN you guys are right about everything u said.. Don’t trade with Utah let it ride.. DW i know what u mean the ownership paid so much, new possible arena and Joe being booed.. David Stern will do whatever it takes to not let the Warriors lose that pick… I promise you that!!!!!!

  • Young

    DEAR MR. LACOB, PLEASE READ BELOW:

    Don’t tell, just show; don’t promise, just deliver; if something is broken, fix it; and if it’s only good, make it truly excellent.–Larry Page, Google CEO

  • Ken

    Just to be clear, if the Warriors give less protection on the same Utah 1st Round Pick, in exchange for the 28%, that is a win-win, because either way, there is a 1st round pick involved and that’s all.
    If Lacob wants to sweeten the deal with cash, the same way that he bought a 2nd round pick, that’s fine to “buy insurance” with cash.
    It seems likely the above is what they offered.
    But in a salary cap league, as David Wood says above, it is senseless to give up any players or any picks – that is what got us into this mess in the first place.
    There is a 72 out of 100 chance that the Warriors get a 7th pick or better AND then Utah still gets our 1st round pick next year, so Utah should not be asking for much.

  • dn8

    Hey marcus isnt the draft lottery tomorrow (wednesday) on espn instead of today on tnt?

  • FANTOM

    yes its tomorrow At 5. AND a lottery pick is not a good gamble- thats different than deandre jordan which I too am glad did not happen. Its critical for the warriors that they have a lottery pick this year, hopefully for a backup big. Losing the number thrity when they have an early secpond round pick is a shame bur relatively unimportant. its perhaps the same player a few picks later with their earleist of two second round choices and without a guaranteed salary.

  • RamboDave

    Why gamble at all on this lottery? To make sure that there is ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE that we lose this pick by falling to the 8th spot, I would give up the best of our 2nd round picks, plus cash, to Utah in exchange for modification of the terms of the stupid ass trade that Mullin made. Utah would then get our pick next year. Remember, we have too many rookies anyway. We don’t need so many picks.

    However, it should be pointed out that we need to keep the # 30 first round pick from San Antonio because, we will not be able to trade that # 7 pick unless we have two first round picks. There is an NBA rule that you cannot trade first round picks for more than two years in advance, unless you have two first round picks in that year that you make the trade.

    That is why the Warriors made the deal with San Antonio, and why they want to hold onto the # 30 pick. They need 2 first round picks in order to make a BIG BIG trade.

    Warriors could package the #7 pick, along with Curry, to Boston to get Rondo. And, I guarantee you that is what they are thinking right now.

  • Harp’s Dubs

    @RamboDave – I’ve been saying our top 7 pick, Curry and filler for Rondo for awhile now, but I doubt Boston will do it now that he’s on display as one of the top 5 players in this league, given his amzing overall abilities. That being said, if we score the #1 pick (Anthony Davis), I think the Celts do it. Anything less than the third pick and Boston will laugh at us.

    Also, don’t know why people want us to use our top 7 pick on a big guy. The #30 pick will get us one of two big players who will make a difference – either Festus Ezell from Vandy (center) or Kevin Jones from WVU (PF).

    Trade our pick and pieces for a proven star!

  • http://trappedingoldenstate.blogspot.com/ Trapped in Golden State

    Warriors fans big day is finally here!…lol…Harp, I hope you don’t mind mind but I used your Joe Johnson proposal.

    http://www.trappedingoldenstate.com/2012/05/golden-state-super-bowl.html

  • http://trappedingoldenstate.blogspot.com/ Trapped in Golden State

    I was saying the same thing as Rambo Dave and Harp all along…Cross your fingers for the pick as an asset to trade not use on more limited youth…

  • Kev

    If the Warriors get a top 3 pick, it would be sweet as we are almost guaranteed Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson or Andrew Drummond at worst. It’s either top 3 or #7.

  • Paolo

    What if after doing some of the worst trades ever, after tanking shamefully a season, after doing terrrible job with coach-players-staff….. you promise to keep your pick and you just lose it?

    two words

    laughable franchise

  • Ken

    Told you !
    The 60 out of 100 chance – stay at 7 – occurred, as it will 60 times out of 100.

  • Grey Warden

    David Stern’s way of fixing the mess he made with the Chris Paul trade. Give the Hornets #1 pick. Also doesn’t hurt that he also owns the Hornets at the moment as well.