It’s hard to not look at the stats of the Warriors guards and come away impressed. But there were some areas where the guards fell short - and it hurt because of their importance to this team. I’m a little harder on them (especially Baron Davis) because their value to the team and their overall talent is greater than anyone else’s on the team.

Baron Davis — He averaged 21.8 points in 39 minutes, his highest marks in those categories since 2003-04, whe averaged 22.9 points in 40.1 minutes. He also set a career high in rebounds. But where Baron falls short — and this is only a shortcoming because he is expected to be elite — was being a point guard. Baron proved two things this season: 1) he is still a top-notched scorer and 2) he can stay healthy (though that is relative). Unfortunately for the Warriors, they only need No. 2. Golden State doesn’t need Baron to be a dominant scorer, but a playmaker. They are better when he’s not the leading scorer. His assists (7.6) dropped under 8.3 for the first time since he joined the Warriors. His field goal percentage also dropped (42.6) fairly significantly off last season’s career-best 43.9 percent. They needed him to make stuff happen for everyone else, not get his. Last year, he played like Chris Paul. This year, he was Gilbert Arenas. They are much tougher to defend when he’s racking up 15 assists than when he’s scoring 40. Plus, he was bad down the stretch.
Grade: C+

Monta Ellis — He really took his game to another level this year. His became a reliable offensive weapon, partially filling the void left by Jason Richardson. There’s no question this dude has the potential to be the next. But looking at just this season, he was atrocious on defense, and that hurt the Warriors in the long run. If Baron is going to play 40 minutes, Monta has to guard the Allen Iversons, the Chris Pauls, the Tony Parkers, etc. He couldn’t this season. His best defense was getting 30 himself. Plus, Monta has the tendency to force offense and take quick shots at the wrong time. He was excellent on the boards, though, and he’s already a much better ball-handler than he used to be.
Grade: B

Marco Belinelli — I give him a lot of credit for keeping a great attitude while not playing and while sitting in the disgruntled section of the locker room (with MP2, Matt Barns and Al Harrington). He thought he should’ve played more, but he always kept a smile on his face and kept working hard. And when he got in, he stroked it some. Grade: B

C.J. Watson — He was much better than I expected, and he fit because he can score. Could’ve been more aggressive, but I understand why not. He produced when he got the minutes, and that’s all you can ask from a guy who started on a 10-day contract.
Grade: A-

Last season, I considered Nellie a legitimate Coach of the Year candidate. This season - though the team added 6 wins to it’s record from last year - I don’t think he did as good a job. As a matter of fact, I think he had as much of a hand in the Warriors missing the playoffs as anyone. That said, he did a solid job. I don’t know how many coaches could squeeze 48 wins out of this roster. I thought they’d get 42 or 43 wins and miss the playoffs. I wasn’t sold on the hype, so Nellie gets credit for making the Warriors practically a 15-win team.

The assistant coaches, from what I could tell, had a big hand in keeping that locker room from falling apart. They did the ego massaging and explaining that Nellie wouldn’t.

Highlights:
• 48-34 record
• Nurtured Ellis into a productive force despite his obvious flaws. Though Nellie believes Monta’s brightest future is at PG, he didn’t stubbornly stick to that and went with a small backcourt. Turning Monta loose was at SG was key to the team’s success
• Same thing applies for Biedrins. Nellie would much rather a center who can shoot from outside. But he, instead, milked Biedrins for what he could bring. He probably shouldn’t get kudos for that, as that is what coaches do. But with Nellie’s judgemental coaching style, its worth mentioning
• Gave responsibility to Keith Smart, presumably the next head coach. Smart ran practices, led the huddle during timeouts, addressed the team in the locker room after games, etc. It is important that the players see Smart as head coach when he does take over, and Nellie helped make sure that happened by letting Smart spend some time in the big chair.

Lowlights:
• Ran Baron and Jackson into the ground (and tried to run Monta in the ground) because of his lack of faith in reserves. Justified or not, you can’t play 82 games with seven players.
•He ruined a lot of players confidence, which is counterproductive to the task at hand. His irregular rotation and sharpe tongue didn’t bring out the most in everyone - namely Harrington, Barnes, Pietrus and Azubuike.
•Failed to get rookies of the future much-needed playing time, which means they’ll still be green next year (not so much B-Wright), just like Kelenna and Patrick were still raw this year. It’s hard to believe Belinelli and Watson couldn’t give anything if given some decent playing time.

One argument is that the Warriors won 48 games and that is a major plus. But another argument is that they misses the playoffs by a game because they couldn’t beat a suspect Denver team at home. Nellie is a major reason for both.
GRADE FOR COACHING STAFF: B- (the assistant coaches boosted it up from a C+

You can imagine how melancholy the Warriors locker room was.
I went to the Nuggets locker room first. By the time I arrived in the Warriors locker room, the only player who hadn’t left the locker room or hopped in the shower was Mickael Pietrus. He just sat there, resting on his knees, staring nowhere.
The only smiles flashed came from Baron and Al Harrington when they signed autographs for Allen Iverson’s son. Monta kinda smiled for little A.I. As soon as that meet and greet was over, they all shifted back to somber.
They didn’t sound like they believed.

KEY STATS
Melo and Iverson: 58 points on 24-for-40 shooting (60 percent)
B.D. and Jackson: 38 points on 14-for-41 shooting (34.1 percent)

*The Warriors scored 12 points off Denvers 16 turnovers. Denver scored 21 points off the Warriors 18 turnovers.

Denver: 9-for-19 from 3-point range
Warriors: 6-for-27 from 3-point range

GOT LOST IN THE LOSS
*Baron had a tripple double (20 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds)
*Biedrins had 19 rebounds, six offensivem as the Warriors outrebounded Denver 52-44
*Kelenna Azubuike led the Warriors reserves with 10 minutes, 39 seconds. Pietrus played just 10:09, Barnes 6:22 and Croshere 2:56. Conversely, the Nuggets got 26 minutes from J.R. Smith, 23 from Najera nad 15 from Kleiza.

WHAT THEY SAID
Baron Davis
“It’s tough, but you’ve got to finish strong. You’ve got to finish strong. This was a tough one to swallow, but you’ve got to finish strong. We’ve got to come prepared Saturday night and win the basketball game.”

“I thought we did an excellent job in the first half of getting the ball in the middle of the floor and working the middle of the floor. Every time they made a run or came back, we were able to get a layup or get someone in the paint for an easy shot. The second half, they really covered us and spaced us and we weren’t able to make plays, which we were able to do in the first half.”

Stephen Jackson:
“If me and Baron have bad shooting nights, we’re not going to win.”

“I don’t think anyone was tired. A game like this, it’s impossible to be tired. It’s impossible to be tired because we have to go out there and play. But we didn’t make the plays. They just made the plays. Their stars stepped up.”

Don Nelson:
“Just a half a step off, playing the way we really needed to win this big game. This was a huge game. I loved the game. I loved every part of it. I just wish we would have played a little bit better.”

“They know this was a game that was probably going to determine who makes the playoffs. It’s not etched in stone yet. I think they still have two tough games, and we have the Phoenix Suns and two games taht we should win. … We won’t know until the last game of the season. So I definitely w ant to win our next two games and see where we are. We know their schedule — the have Houston at home and Utah on the road. Tonight, they’re on top and it looks good for them.”

Allen Iverson:
“It was hard tonight. That is a tough team. They have so many talented players on their team, and it’s even rougher tyring to play that team in front of this home crowd. They ahve one of the best home crowds in the NBA.”

“J.R. Smith played one of the biggest roles tonight. To come in here and beat a team like this, you need everybody. Every guy on the court who is playing, you need the guys not on the court cheering everybody on because we are in here by ourselves. There are 20,000 people in here. Everybody brought it tonight. The thing with the noise in that arena is that you want to shut them up. I know how it is to play at home, an dthat makes the basket that much bigger. It makes it that much easier to get a stop when you have everybody cheering for you, everybody wanting your shots to go in. It is that much harder with everything at stake tonight - and to be able to get a win tonight is great.”

George Karl:
“In the first quarter, we got a hungry team, a fired team that ran by us. We missed a lot of easy shots, some layups during that stretch. They were just getting to the rim on every transition and penetration. Then we went to the zone and I thought A.I. was incredible. His defensive presence in the zone just gave us a confidence to defend them that we didn’t have early.”

“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. … But if they win all their games the rest of the way, we’ve got to win two.”

In the two biggest games of the year, at San Antonio and Dallas, Jackson was no where to be found.
Not only did he not produce his usual production, but he was awful - on both ends of the court. He was a hindrance with his jump shooting habit, and he failed to make up for his offensive woes in other areas.
True, several Warriors played poorly. Ellis was terrible in San Antonio. He was a little bit better in Dallas, but his trigger-happy ways hurt the Warriors. Al Harrington has been off, but he has his sprained thumb as a cover.
The one guy who did show up, who - say what you will about him - always shows up, was Baron Davis. While everyone else was chucking jumpers, he was forcing himself to the basket 1-on-2 and 1-on-3. (Let that be a lesson for those who say let BD walk and give the team to Monta. He’s doing so well because he’s playing next to Baron.)
The Warriors can afford bad games from Ellis, because they have Kelenna Azubuike (who is ballin’ lately). They can afford bad games from Harrington because they can go with Biedrins or Barnes or Pietrus when he’s healthy.
The Warriors CANNOT afford awful performances from Jackson when the stakes are so high. Maybe he can play a less-than-steller game, or a below-the-averages game. But he can’t be a downright liability on both ends of the court. Not with the playoffs hanging in the balance.
Jackson has to find a way to produce even on bad nights. If his jumper isn’t falling, if he’s not getting the calls, if he’s not feeling well, he still has to find a way to produce. He has to.
The fact that he disappeared is a huge concern, and exposes perhaps the flaw that will keep the Warriors out of the postseason: this team is not as good when Stephen Jackson is the second-best player. Forget his temper, which he’s controlled. Forget his lack of rebounding, or his propensityf or turnovers. Can the Warriors rely on a player who literally lives and dies by the jumper?
Maybe I’m overreacting. I like Jackson, as a person and a player. I think he’s really good. But I think these last two games exposed him.

So, I was informed by the league office that the NBA DOES NOT voluntarily release its opinion or analysis about controversial judgment calls. The offensive foul ref Bob Delaney called on Monta Ellis is considered a judgment call. The NBA only volunteers its analysis for specific rules violations or in serious circumstances.
The league does, however, share its findings on controversial calls when a member of the media asks. So I asked. And Stu Jackson answered.
“We did review,” he said Tuesday. “The call was incorrect.”
“After looking at the play, the foul was on (Derek) Fisher and not (Monta) Ellis. It appeared that Fisher pulled Ellis down.”
There you have it.

Be honest. Who would you rather have? Kevin Martin or Monta Ellis.
Both are shooting guards. Both are dynamic scorers. Both have defensive weaknesses.
After the Kings-Warriors game in Oakland, I would’ve said Monta. After Tuesday’s game at Arco, I’m not so sure.
Ellis is electrifying and has so much room for growth. Martin is a bit more versatile, especially on offense and has the size advantage.
Who would you take? I really am torn.

I said it in my All-Star break summation, but it bears repeating: The Warriors haven’t been this close to the No. 1 seed in the West, this late in the season, since 1992. And ’91-’92 was their most successful season since ’75-’76, when they won a franchise-record 59 games.

So this appears to potentially be a once-every-16-years burst of greatness for the Warriors.

But will they make a deal to put themselves over the top before the trade deadline at noon on Thursday?

Now, no one’s banged the drum of “fiscal responsibility” over the last year harder than I have. Ever since the Indiana trade, I’ve said that the Warriors were saving their pennies for this summer, when they have to pay off Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, and that they weren’t going to screw that up by taking on any deals that go beyond ’07-‘08.

That viewpoint is not just supposition. I’ve listened to Bobby Rowell say that the Warriors are simply not going to watch young talent like Ellis and Biedrins walk away over salary-cap/luxury-tax issues. I’ve had Chris Mullin tell me that if his team didn’t already feature Ellis and Biedrins, they’d be the exact kind of players for which he’d be scouring the league. I know the team won’t seriously consider taking on a contract unless it involves bringing in a player who’s going to push them to the Western Conference Finals or beyond.

I know all of that. But they’re so close to the top. So very close. These are the kind of heights that make men dizzy. And could lead to carefully laid plans getting thrown out the window.

If the Warriors were bumping around .500, lying 10, 11, 12 games off the pace of the No. 1 team, then the level of talent needed from an incoming player to push Golden State to the WCF would be on the order of a Kevin Garnett or Dirk Nowitzki.

Yet by posting the best record in the West since Nov. 15 (i.e., after the Jaxless 0-6 start), the definition of such a “difference-maker” becomes more elastic. Now, a guy like Memphis’ Mike Miller could conceivably be enough to get the job done. Miller, who is due $9 million next season and $9.75 in ’09-’10, is not without flaws (Defense? What is this “defense” of which you speak?). But he would be a pure shooter with unlimited range on a team that currently lacks one of those, yet still takes the most 3-pointers, by far, of any NBA squad.

Miller, however, appears to be one of those guys (like Milwaukee forward Charlie Villanueva, Marcus’ favorite pick) who will be dealt only if the acquiring team is willing to take a bad contract back (in Miller’s case, it’s the $13.05 million owed to Brian Cardinal over the next two seasons; for Villanueva, the tax is Bobby Simmons’ $20.5 million over two years).

I think the Warriors would seriously consider shipping out a package that includes players and/or a No. 1 draft pick in return for a second-tier “difference maker.” I think there’s basically no chance they’re going to take on a contract of the sort that Cardinal and Simmons have in order to get that guy.

Whatever the case, it’ll be fascinating to see how it all shakes out — not just for the Warriors, but the West as a whole.

– Geoff

Here’s my one knock on Baron. He turns it on and off.
Part of it is because he’s so good. The game really does come “Too Easy” to him. Part of it is because he carries such a big load for this team, and it’s practically impossible to have it “on” all the time. But part of it is because he’s not mature enough of a point guard to not overlook lesser opponents.
Duhon has 15 points on 6-for-7 shooting. He scored his season high in 10 minutes. Monta was matched up with him. But I give Baron some of the blame for that. Monta loses focus on defense. He gets lost in the shuffle when he’s competing against a less heralded guy. He spent the first quarter losing sight of Duhon, waiving at him instead of running out to contest his shot. Remember Monta was a pesky defender? He is when he wants to be. Assuredly, he can turn it on in a blink just as Baron. But it’s a bad habit for such a young talent.
Baron is the king of that. B.D. lifts his play against the best PGs, and coasts against the lesser ones. From eyes, Monta is picking up that habit.
Baron should go for 40 regularly against some of the other point guards in this league. He should be averaging double-digits in assists. He is undefendable one-on-one, and against many double teams. But he coasts when he’s not motivated, and he bails out the defense too much with jumpers. He relaxes on defense against the no-name PGs in the league.
When Baron gets to the point where he can play at an All-Star level no matter who he’s going against, he’ll be in the Hall of Fame. Let’s hope that starts while he’s playing alongside Monta.

Just got an update from the Warriors: Monta Ellis underwent an MRI exam Saturday — when veterans were not made available to the media because there was no official practice — on his the ring finger of his left hand. We’re told he caught the finger in an opponent’s jersey late in Friday’s game against the Nuggets.

While the MRI showed no break, there is some pain there and the team is calling it a sprain. (It sounds similar to what Matt Barnes has been playing through. He’s got a fracture in a similar spot on one hand and a sprained finger on the other.)

In any case, Ellis is being listed as a day-to-day proposition and his status for tonight’s game in Denver is questionable. Privately, the Nuggets were not terribly impressed with Ellis’ performance on Friday, so I’m sure he’d like to go tonight in search of some revenge.

– Geoff

As Monta Ellis took two quick-step dribbles and pulled up to drain another 18-foot jumper, you couldn’t help but wonder if somewhere in Mississippi, a former high-school opponent of Ellis’ was yelling at his TV, trying to tell New Jersey’s Richard Jefferson — or Minnesota’s Sebastian Telfair, or Cleveland’s Daniel Gibson — “Now you know how I felt!”

That’s how dominant Ellis has looked lately with his mid-range game. My Dean Mob colleagues Glenn Reeves and Adam Lauridsen have already covered this ground, but it bears repeating, especially because it was the topic of the day at practice this afternoon: Ellis is just killing people from 15 to 20 feet.

I asked Ellis if he thought the guys he used to torment in the Jackson Public Schools league could commiserate with Jefferson, Telfair or Gibson.

“Anybody that really knows me, and knows basketball in Mississippi, they’re not surprised at all,” Ellis said.

And as for the scoring (24.0 points per game) and field-goal percentage (59.7 percent) over the Warriors’ last five games, Ellis deferred the credit to the guys working with him in pick-and-roll situations, such as center Andris Biedrins.

“Him, BD, Al (Harrington), everybody who comes and sets a screen sets it so good I have that shot open all the time,” Ellis said. “The gap is so big, you don’t have a choice but to take that shot. And that’s my shot. It just takes the concentration and confidence to knock it down. . . . If you look at it, it ain’t nothing but the high school 3-point line. That’s it.”

That’s important, because Ellis — a career 29.1 percent shooter from distance — has stopped jacking up treys, averaging just over one per game. That’s a almost 50 percent decrease over the previous two seasons.

“Our team, we’ve got a lot of great 3-point shooters,” Ellis said. “They don’t need for me to shoot the 3 when I’ve got the ability to get past the guy and go to the basket and finish. That just allows me (to take) an 18-20 foot jump shot or get to the basket. That’s it. I get my 3-point plays like that.”

It doesn’t hurt that Ellis is showing simply phenomenal quickness with the ball right now.

“I think Monta’s the fastest guy in the league on the open floor,” Warriors forward Matt Barnes said. “Tony Parker is fast, and there’s a couple other guys that are fast, but in the open court, (Ellis) will start at half-court and he’ll beat someone from the free-throw line to the basket. He’s a hard guy to cover.”

Nevertheless, teams have got to find a way to stop Ellis if they want to derail a Warriors team that has won 17 of 23. Are double-teams the answer? Or will they come up with some other plan?

“They might (double-team), and when they do, trust me, we’ve got a counter for it,” Ellis said. “I can’t let you know what the secret is, but we’ve got a counter for it. We watch film just like they watch film.”

– Geoff